Seeking Alpha

Coal names higher as Consol raises coal production outlook

  • Consol Energy's (CNX +3.6%) upgraded coal outlook is lifting coal names higher across the board: ANR +9.2%, WLT +7.4%, ACI +5.6%, YZC +5.2%, BTU +3.8%, WLB +3.1%, OXF +3%, CLD +2%, KOL +1.9%.
  • Stifel raises its CNX target price to $46 from $45, reflecting the strong market for northern Appalachian thermal coal, offsetting a weaker pricing and volume outlook for met coal (Briefing.com).
This was corrected on 04/08/2014 at 06:07 PM.
Comments (29)
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    Coal production will continue to increase, as the outlook for demand improves, even as China's economy shrinks, because China is not the only market for coal but its demand for coal will not abate, especially for met coal, as they need it to fuel their domestic needs and to ramp up their steel production to maintain their revenue earnings (to avoid losing their state subsidies).
    8 Apr, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • buyitcheap
    , contributor
    Comments (1891) | Send Message
     
    Too late for JRCC... may it R.I.P.
    8 Apr, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1158) | Send Message
     
    Thermal coal as stated has some issues, MET coal from several people is gaining ground, Long term contracts for (WLT) for instance have them in good shape thru 2021 with locked in low dollar and ability to increase prices over that point.

     

    M
    8 Apr, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1174) | Send Message
     
    I'm still curious as to labeling PVG as a coal company?!

     

    Fact sheet doesn't list any coal based on my inspection: http://bit.ly/PZpyfK
    8 Apr, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    6151621 I agree I dont see coal mentioned anywhere perhaps an error?
    8 Apr, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • dezee
    , contributor
    Comments (1619) | Send Message
     
    Your going to see a major shift from China to Europe and Japan in coal consumption in both met and thermal. Since nuclear reactors need to shutdown this is going to drive both kinds of coal since both are expanding capacity.
    8 Apr, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    dezee....you're absolutely correct in your observations that Europe and Japan will be the new driving force for increasing coal consumption, for obvious reasons.
    9 Apr, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1158) | Send Message
     
    I agree, they have killed off their Nuke generation and been buying coal, oil & LNG to fuel power generation,m Oil over 102 & brent over 108 is killing them. Steel demand is good and Northern Hemisphere coming to summer mean bigger demand for MET Coal. Funny thing is long term contracts account for nearly 80% of production from several of these met coal producers such as (WLT)
    9 Apr, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    wpspiker......you spoke my mind with your input. The future indeed augurs well for WLT, despite what some idiotic analysts may say, when they downgraded WLT from Neutral to Sell.
    9 Apr, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • dezee
    , contributor
    Comments (1619) | Send Message
     
    benitus

     

    Not just Europe and Japan, but emerging markets like South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico are going to drive growth
    9 Apr, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • dezee
    , contributor
    Comments (1619) | Send Message
     
    WPSPIKER,

     

    Lot of the optimism for steel has been cost cutting and lower energy prices. Although things can change very fast will a bullish market.
    9 Apr, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • dezee
    , contributor
    Comments (1619) | Send Message
     
    benitus

     

    DId you buy any WLT today?
    9 Apr, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    absolutely, dezee....but the impact of smaller countries would not be as significant as Europe or Japan, while China's consumption is not going to fall because steel production cannot be abated, as it goes against Communist policy to cut back on steel production.
    10 Apr, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    of course, dezee....I bought a bundle of WLT today, at 7.60, 7.55 but couldn't get 7.50 and I've placed orders all the way down to 6.90 if it ever gets there, which I seriously doubt. The reason for me to place orders for lower prices is because some idiots might be scaring the market to dump, so I'll buy up any excess that appears on the horizon. The stock is cheap and anyone can afford to buy into it at this price. Once it runs out of steam, it should turn back up anytime, so place your bets or regret.
    10 Apr, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1158) | Send Message
     
    I added to my shares of (WLT) today, as well as added shares of (BAC) and (CLNE) did not sell anything today, I sold stuff over two or so weeks ago now picking up some of the stuff I sold much lower. ;)
    9 Apr, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • dezee
    , contributor
    Comments (1619) | Send Message
     
    I added to $WLT as well and some $TAN
    9 Apr, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    wpspiker.....I think it's too early to get into BAC but it's just like any other bet, which is good if you're confident of it reversing its course. For me, the waters are too murky now. I'll wait a while when things are clearer to get more of this stock, probably $16 or below. Price appreciation is a lousy way to go for BAC but I'm eagerly waiting like everyone else for a good dividend (quite unlikely) or stock buyback. It can only go up to $20 this year at the most but I can make this much profit (<$4) playing with FSLR, UGAZ within a week, so it's a waste of money to dump more into this stock. Good luck, my friend.
    10 Apr, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1158) | Send Message
     
    I have been in (BAC) with at one point my largest pos and had cost basis of under 9 and sold about 1/3 of my pos between 17.40~17.50. That was a couple weeks ago. I been charting it for a good bit and it has been stair steeping up in 1.25~2.00 per pop. The upper 17 area was the peak of the last step up. The sideways transition is about 1~2 months to get that 1.2~2 pull back & cement the flat-ish line then a rather good bump of $3.5+/- for the next peak up. pull up a 1 year chart and watch the saw tooth pattern going up. then pull some lines on the chart showing this trading range which has yet to break this up cycle.

     

    There is a danger of market pullback that could derail this pattern however being one of largest market cap company it does not move too drastically. My cost basis NOW after selling & buying back in is probably closer to 11ish so I'm still good & I only bought back about 1/3 of what I sold at 16.35~16.40.

     

    Mark
    10 Apr, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    Dear Mark, granted that you've been tracking BAC from a long time ago and you've done well, which justifies your approach towards the stock. But please don't ever think that you can afford the loss, just because you have made money. Otherwise, you'll be right back where you started and you will get careless or sloppy with your decisions, particularly if the market goes against you. You must always remember that you CANNOT AFFORD the loss at any time because that's the only way you can make money and KEEP IT. Whatever we make today is in the bank, which is our gain. We must be stingy and strict with our decisions because we cannot afford to lose what we have gained, which was earned from sacrifices we've made before our gain.

     

    We start tomorrow on a new slate and figure out a fresh strategy to beat the odds, so that we can keep on making money. Now, if we do suffer a loss for the new day, then we can learn from our mistake or wrong judgment. That's what I do every day. I ring up my cash register when I'm done for the day and I bank in my takings every Friday by withdrawing from my trading account and remitting them to whatever account I choose to. This is how we make our trading into a business. Every trade we make must be concluded and closed, instead of using our profits to absorb any loss that we make on another day.

     

    If you don't take out your profits, then your cost for any day will be the value of your shares when market opens, not what you paid for it. Try it out and see how you can increase your profits. That's how I get over my bad moves because I will resume making profits the next day. Should you continue losing money for an entire week of trading, then you need to re-examine your approach towards making those trades and adopt a different strategy if necessary. I wish you every success to make money with your strategy, which I must admit is quite impressive.
    10 Apr, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • dezee
    , contributor
    Comments (1619) | Send Message
     
    I cant say I like $CLNE but $BAC is a better bet. I'd rather be in $MSFT .
    10 Apr, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1158) | Send Message
     
    While that is a good method, even the trading costs on top of the accounting issues would drive me crazy! I've done well over last 7 years I have managed 60 and 62% in my two accounts with Dividends and Profits from stocks I have sold. If I sold out of my stocks as you are doing on my sized accounts I would end up loosing a LOT of that profit to the trading company.

     

    Being up or down 1~3% is not worth that extra problems or trade costs of simply retaining and adding to post when it is off/down from where I bought it.

     

    Mark
    10 Apr, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    To each his own then, dear Mark. I was thinking of day-trading as a business, rather than as an investment pursuit. I must be making quantifiable money every week if not every day (daily target $5K). Otherwise, I had better stop what I'm doing and go into my money bin to count my money everyday. Of course, if your brokerage fees are high, then your broker would be making more money than you if you do what I do, so to each his own. Good luck with your investments, my friend.
    11 Apr, 01:57 AM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1920) | Send Message
     
    Wow really you make money every week? Cant believe it you might as well open your own fund and stop commenting on here since your raking it in. I would be charging people to talk to me.
    11 Apr, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    wil3714.....yes, I do but that doesn't mean I don't lose money as well but I do recover fast and on most occasions, my losses are on paper until the market turns around. Yes, I do operate a private fund, for people I know. It started when my staff (before I retired) wanted a piece of the action, so I created a private account and the rest is history, which is why I'm very free with my suggestions and helping people is innate in me. Try that sometimes, be generous and be nice, especially to strangers, instead of being cynical and critical, and you'll find that it's easier to be happy and successful. I thought you were my friend and don't expect that from you but I forgive you because you know not what you do. I wish you ever-growing success in your trades. Have a wonderful day.
    11 Apr, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1158) | Send Message
     
    Hi Benitus:

     

    thanks, I use Scottrade and do all my own Tax accounting & DO TRADE some but not in main practice. I invest long term mostly & try & keep 20% in cash in the account for when something crashes that I think (based on some quick research) should not have crashed as bad as it did.

     

    Scottrade is only $7 to BUY but if inexpensive stock costs more to SELL as they charge a % of the cost of the stock when sold if it is less than so many $ per share.

     

    I also work part time & go to school part time so I can't watch the market 5 days a week or be on-line all the time. Which is how several buys hit me while I was away, set pre-buy orders then a company reports or local news and the stock drops & passes the pre-buy order (how I got Exide last year.) I looked at Exide & did research & couldn't find much & it was down a bit, so I set a buy order. It bought (XIDE) when a big news story came out in their LOCAL paper to CA and bought when it was hit on that news. NOTHING was available or mentioned it on-line for 3 days after local news... THAT is one of the stocks that has bit me & would have been better had I sold at a quick loss.

     

    I also only been in market since July 2008, when CDs and Interest was so poor I originally only bought higher yielding stocks for long term. It was also after loosing job & had a $50k 401K to move into SOMETHING. Being home I starting watching day time trading shows & got in..

     

    Would like to learn OPTIONS but they just mess with my head on the info for some reason kind of like Calculus lol...

     

    Mark
    11 Apr, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1158) | Send Message
     
    Been watching (TAN) for a good number of years just never pulled trigger, it is looking very attractive tho.

     

    M
    10 Apr, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    Dear Mark, you're welcome. I'm so sorry to know that you were among those who were hit very hard by the economic meltdown of 2008 and 2009. Many people haven't recovered at all, so you were brave and brilliant to take hold of your future and do something for yourself. I'm glad that you've been making money and has grown in wisdom and experience with the stock market.

     

    We often hear from people how easy it is to make money from Options trading but we don't hear of their losses. My principle in life about everything is that it's all a zero-sum game. When some people are making lots of money, then there will be others who've also lost their life-savings, so my philosophy is to stick at doing what we know best instead of wasting time trying to learn something new and put our valuable and limited resources at risk. Like I often tell people, we shouldn't spread our resources too thin, so we should focus on a few stocks that we like, that we know, that there's enough volatility to make money, etc.

     

    If you want to talk more, then follow me and I'll be pleased to discuss your thoughts on making money and maybe, share some with you. BTW, don't ever let your struggles be a cause to neglect your family, especially your kids. They are God's gifts to you and through them, you can enjoy life with them, even as you struggle everyday with your work and your studies. May the Lord always bless you and your loved ones in all your endeavors. Live long and prosper, my friend. God bless.
    11 Apr, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1158) | Send Message
     
    BEN: to quote yo
    "We often hear from people how easy it is to make money from Options trading but we don't hear of their losses. My principle in life about everything is that it's all a zero-sum game. When some people are making lots of money, then there will be others who've also lost their life-savings,"

     

    that is the real truth there, if anyone tries to convince you/me/anyone they are making a killing it usually is at expense of others (often the ones being convinced.)
    Mark
    12 Apr, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1941) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Mark. The stock market is always a zero-sum game, which I've been using to make money for many years. Allow me to explain (even if you disagree). Whenever there's a run on major stocks, the profits aren't going to be taken out from the market (that's the nature of gamblers), so it's got to go into stocks that haven't moved much recently, due to most interest being diverted elsewhere, so I get into these stocks and they'll boom within days. I've expounded on the gambler mentality before on several occasions, so I'm not going to repeat myself again, as it's quite tiring writing long replies at my age. Live long and prosper.
    12 Apr, 06:11 AM Reply Like
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