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PC shipments fall less than expected; IDC, Gartner differ on how much

  • IDC estimates global PC shipments fell 4.4% Y/Y (less than a 5.3% forecast) in Q1 to 73.4M, after having declined 5.6% in Q4 and 7.6% in Q3. Gartner thinks shipments only fell 1.7%, and totaled 76.6M.
  • IDC chalks up the narrower decline to healthy commercial demand, as buyers purchased Windows 7 systems ahead of Microsoft's (MSFT) termination of Windows XP support. The firm also thinks slowing tablet growth helped out.
  • IDC thinks Japanese shipments rose 7%, and U.S. shipments only fell 0.6% thanks to 3.5% desktop growth. Emerging Asia-Pac and Latin American markets, where tablet cannibalization is at an earlier stage, remained weak..
  • A mix shift towards developed markets benefits both Microsoft (higher ASPs, less piracy) and Intel (INTC - higher ASPs).
  • IDC estimates market leader Lenovo (LNVGY) had a 17.7% share, +220 bps Y/Y. #2 H-P's (HPQ) share rose 150 bps to 17.1%, and #3 Dell's 170 bps to 13.4%. #4 Acer's (ASIYF) share fell 130 bps to 6.8%, and #5 Asus' 20 bps to 5.9%.
  • The Q1 numbers suggest IDC's prior full-year forecast for a 6% shipment drop might prove too pessimistic.
  • Other companies with strong PC exposure: AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC, HTCH
Comments (30)
  • Skylander2011
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    so.....will we see 5 bucks after earnings?
    9 Apr, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • David RG
    , contributor
    Comments (1012) | Send Message
     
    Wow, this could be really good for Intel if Gartner is correct and there was a mix shift to i series.
    9 Apr, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8816) | Send Message
     
    If there is a shift to Core i5/i7 and Intel took another big bite out of AMD's hide at the low end with Baytrail Pentium/Celeron, then this could be very good for Intel.
    9 Apr, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11014) | Send Message
     
    I doubt it. Intel is not paying much attention to this market and there isn't much of a driver to higher performance since no one wants to upgrade to Windows 8. Until Microsoft gets its act together Intel will suffer.

     

    I am more hopeful they will get some foothold in the mobile phone market but they need to reduce prices here rather than the PC space.
    10 Apr, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    What are you talking about they sold 200M+ license of W8.
    10 Apr, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • User 12115671
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    steam is showing AMD gaining share, looks like you'll have to pay up and cover your short
    11 Apr, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • xxavatarxx
    , contributor
    Comments (2054) | Send Message
     
    Since when is steam used to gauge world wide CPU shipments?
    Wow.... *eye roll*
    11 Apr, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • geekinasuit
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    It's been used before to show how much market share nvidia and Intel have over AMD. We really don't have much else to go on, so it's something of an indication.
    11 Apr, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • xxavatarxx
    , contributor
    Comments (2054) | Send Message
     
    Something like this seems better geekinasuit.
    Maybe the desktop numbers will poke up a bit for 2014 Q1 from the new CPU's.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gSLM8Z

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...;uprof=
    12 Apr, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  • gpearson
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    There are a lot of PCs that will need to be replaced in near future. Tablets are not replacing PCs, but are part of a bundle of devices (PC, tablet, smart phone) that people want. There will be an ebb and flow of sales for each type of device.

     

    The Microsoft Surface lineup is approaching all 3 devices in 1, but the Amazon Kindle black & white book-like screen could be the 4th device as its CEO has suggested.
    9 Apr, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • elvislevel
    , contributor
    Comments (421) | Send Message
     
    I would agree to a point, however, I think breakdown of usage for a huge number of people will be 90% tablet for goofing around and 10% pc for writing long thoughtful comments on SA. These people will be inclined to upgrade their tablet far more often than their pc. It seems obvious that something like this is going on or else pc sales would not have taken a hit while tablets were flying.
    9 Apr, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • geekinasuit
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Win XP support is now over, that should cause a spike in upgrades.
    9 Apr, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (5471) | Send Message
     
    Great news. There's nothing unique anymore about Apple or Android devices since Microsoft has touch based tablets, 2-in-1 and all-in-1 devices and Intel now support both Android and Microsoft. The next two years could be really great for INTC and MSFT but in a very competitive way for consumers too.
    9 Apr, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    PC decline will improve as more people are being hired in back half and it'll drive enterprise
    9 Apr, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • newnnly
    , contributor
    Comments (242) | Send Message
     
    When will we stop hearing about "THE DEATH OF THE PC"?
    9 Apr, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    Cant stop wont stop never going to die
    9 Apr, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Ben Hanson
    , contributor
    Comments (403) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if the discrepancy is because they count different items as PCs versus Tablets. Go look up the Dell XPS 18 and try to tell me that it fits cleanly into the Desktop or the Tablet category. I imagine that, Lenovo Yogas, Surface Pro 2's and the like resulted in some rather philosophical discussions.

     

    Not that I'm calling either of their methodologies into question, but different groups of professionals will come to different conclusions, and that's okay.
    9 Apr, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    I say its a PC, this specific computer is based for designers and developers, this is only good for large screen images. Very small space but good point
    9 Apr, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • investingInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (1216) | Send Message
     
    SA readers. This is the PC market reaction when Microsoft retires Windows XP. This is a "one time event".

     

    Corporate IT departments convince C level executives to buy new PCs with Windows 7 installed, from HP and Dell and other HW vendors.
    9 Apr, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • ThePuckMeister
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    As predicted by our friend Russ Fischer! Well done again Russ!
    9 Apr, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Alpha Sponge
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Exactly what I thought when I first saw this.
    9 Apr, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • David Muncier
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
     
    OK guys,
    This is certainly good news on the PC front, but I'm seeing a ridiculous confirmation bias here. Russ' article opined on Q1 showing unit growth. As I read the numbers the QtQ decline was less than predicted, but in both cases still a decline. Where do you see the predicted growth - maybe I'm missing something ?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    What if PCs (talking about x86 based computing devices here) were to surprisingly return to growth? Even a tiny bit of growth? Where does the "PC is declining" group go to hide to avoid the mugging by those who sold or didn't buy Intel (INTC) based on their advice?
    9 Apr, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Alpha Sponge
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    David, you're right but I thought of Russ's article when I read the title because the overall decline may be slowing and possibly leading toward the U turn and growth that he was talking about. Of course that could have been inferred from HP's results which he cited in his article but this confirms that his thesis of a possible U turn in the overall market could be solid, even if it's not happening in this quarter.
    10 Apr, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • David Muncier
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
     
    @Alpha,
    I personally believe that we will see some up PC quarters ahead, especially around the back to school season, but LNG term, it will probably Brownian motion around 300M units / year.
    10 Apr, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • SeanLEE
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    dajavu..I remember reading similar article before the last ERs of Intel and AMD...
    9 Apr, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Russ Fischer
    , contributor
    Comments (2304) | Send Message
     
    These guys always have the numbers NOT in Intel's favor. I think we can expect the Intel sales and earnings numbers at least at the high end of guidance on Apr 15th.....what an awful day to report earnings:)
    9 Apr, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • PapaJon
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Joseph Russ, you going off assumptions. You not listening! Sometimes you have to go with the obvious.
    10 Apr, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • Russ Fischer
    , contributor
    Comments (2304) | Send Message
     
    Papa,
    I'm listening just fine. Apparently I can hear and see things that you can't.
    10 Apr, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • jon connery
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    Lenovo is on top and moving higher ...
    10 Apr, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Skylander2011
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    can someone explain something to me ..because ..hmm well I don't get it..
    AMD is delivering the ER next week on the 17th of april AFTER the market closes ( from what I found out and my bank confirmed it..) the next day the 18th the market is CLOSED for Good Friday ..then is the weekend...and everyone is goin nuts buying options expiring on the 19th ( like today i.e. someone bought over 30 000 contracts for 5 bucks strike...) thing is..the 19th is Saturday...18th is Friday..which is closed..so the options pretty much expire BEFORE the ER release...why wouldn't people buy the options expiring on 25th?? ..unless they don't want to play earnings...I mean ..just strange...barely anyone is interested in the 25th ones...
    11 Apr, 07:56 PM Reply Like
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