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No support for Tekmira yet

  • Shares of RNA interference firm Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR -14.5%) continue their slide in early trading. Prices have cratered 60% since the 6x run-up peaked at $31.48 on March 13.
  • Although Big Pharma has lost much of its enthusiasm for RNA interference, some analysts remain bullish. RBC Capital has a $30 PT on the stock and Maxim Group has $31. Stifel Nicolaus is a bit more modest with $19.
  • Most of the firm's 2013 revenue of $15.5M came from its contract with the DOD for the development of an Ebola treatment ($9.8M) and a milestone payment from Alnylam (ALNY -4.5%) ($5M) that was triggered by the start of the Phase 3 clinical trial for ALN-TTR02 (patisiran).
  • 10-K
Comments (4)
  • Zubunda
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    This seems strange! This MC is crazy given that even the Ebola program could bring in revenues from stockpiling in the range of 50 - 400/yr starting 2015/-16, and it only needs to be proven SAFE in humans. The Efficacy is already shown in animals with strong stat-sig, so this should not change in the larger 'animal rule' trial, which forms the basis for approval (given shown safety in the human trial)!
    15 Apr, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Long Term Bio
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Tekmira is in a huge bind. It has fallen a lot because it is a biotech stock and now it has fallen a lot because of the news about Novartis dumping its RNAi program. So far no break for Tekmira or other RNAi stocks
    15 Apr, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Zubunda
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Yes, but still feel the reaction to the NVS deal was quite exaggerated! NVS is a conglomerate, which has been struggling with its strategy, alignment of its focus. Would have been far more concerned if ALNY or ARWR, DRNA or some other pure play RNA company would have called quits.

     

    In addition, NVS also talked about partnering e.g, so they just seem to have dropped the internal R&D push, which is actually good for the competitors. When it comes to the 'dissing' of targets/technologies, it would have been pretty bad business first talking about partnering possibilities, i.e. effectively outsourcing the R&D to the start ups in the field, and then stating that there are o lot of interesting platforms and technologies in development that would then drive up the price of the companies/technologies. From NVS's point of view thay can wait and see if some RNA therapy shows success and then just buy it; for example if ARWR showed remarkable results in its PII HBV trial they could just buy them out, same with TKMR and ANLY. By comparison, GILD bought Pharmasset for $ 11B, probably mostly for Sovaldi, and it seems that they could recoup their investment within the first two years of the launch of the drug.

     

    That said, if we attribute the 100% rise to SNY's $ 700M investment in RNA (through ALNY) and the 50% decline based on fellow mega cap NVS exiting the space, it makes for a nice symmetry! However, this excludes the progress made in the space.
    16 Apr, 03:35 AM Reply Like
  • hybrids55
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    This stock is headed all the way back to $3. It won't come back before a decade if it ever comes back ! Investor beware, hope is not sound investing !
    30 Apr, 09:01 PM Reply Like
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