Seeking Alpha

Chinese growth moderates to 7.4%

  • China's GDP growth slowed to its lowest level in 18 months in Q1, moderating to 7.4% on year from 7.7% in Q4 but topping forecasts for 7.3%. The figure is below the government's target of 7.5%, although the country's leaders have indicated that the goal is flexible as they try to implement reform.
  • Falling momentum in investment and consumption, struggling real estate, and weak external demand were among the main factors that caused the slower expansion.
  • On quarter, GDP +1.4%, as expected, vs +1.8%.
  • The value of home sales fell 7.7% in Q1 to 1.1T yuan ($177B); new property construction -25% to 291M square meters (3.1B square feet).
  • Industrial production +8.8% in March +8.6% in previously and consensus of +9%.
  • Retail sales +12.2% vs +11.8% and +12.1%.
  • Urban fixed-asset investment +17.6% in Q1 vs +17.9% previously and forecasts of +18.1%.
  • MNI Business Sentiment Indicator 51.1 in March vs 50.2 in February.
  • "All the forward-looking indicators are weak - growth is going to continue to slow," says Standard Chartered's Stephen Green. "We expect a mix of moderate monetary easing over the next few months and more aggressive reform measures."
  • However, Credit Agricole economist Dariusz Kowalczyk expresses a bit of optimism. "The silver lining is that retail sales and industrial output both rebounded in March, suggesting that growth is bottoming out."
  • The Shanghai Composite is flat.
  • ETFs: FXI, PGJ, GXC, FXP, YINN, KWEB, CYB, HAO, CNY, ASHR, CHIQ, TAO, CHIX, YANG, CQQQ, MCHI, QQQC, PEK, XPP, YAO, CHXX, YXI, CHXF, FXCH, CHII, ECNS, CHIM, CHIE, FCA, KFYP, TCHI, CHNA, KBA
This was corrected on 04/16/2014 at 07:00 AM.
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Comments (1)
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11544) | Send Message
     
    China is fine and the fall in its currency is reasonable given its declining growth. Likewise, the US currency fall is fine given its looking at a cyclical slowdown. The only difference is those running the US are too dumb to realize facts.
    16 Apr 2014, 01:38 PM Reply Like
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