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Building permits unexpectedly slip in March

  • March housing starts of 946K were 5.9% higher than a year ago and compare to 920K in February (revised from 907K). Single-family starts of 635K were up 6% from February.
  • The market seems focused on permits, which fell to 990K from February's 1.014M. On a Y/Y basis, though, permits gained 11.2%.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield dips two basis points to 2.64%.
  • Homebuilder ETFs ITB and XHB show no trades premarket.
  • Full report
Comments (8)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    6 month moving average of housing starts is well above the 18 month moving average....no recession in sight....

     

    6 month moving average continues to move northward
    16 Apr, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11014) | Send Message
     
    When the Texas real estate crash was beginning housing starts looked just wonderful. This is a lagging indicator based on expectation and the housing starts can be dropped like bacon on fire if the prices and buyers evaporate at any time. Then the starts turn into rotting infrastructure and concrete slabs much like slab city.
    16 Apr, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    Housing starts is one of the best leading indicators around with a long long history of accuracy. Dismiss it at your own peril.....

     

    http://bit.ly/158MRbF
    16 Apr, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    Looks like if it weren't for Foreign Investors the Housing Market would be non-existent. Interest in U.S. property increased dramatically in a number of countries between 2009 and 2013. In all, interest in home buying, according to housing market firm RealtyTrac, increased by 95% or more in 10 countries, and at least doubled in nine of these nations. Interest in U.S. property by residents of the United Arab Emirates rose 352%, the most out of any country. Based on subscription data provided by RealtyTrac, these are the 10 countries where interest in buying American homes is on the rise. http://bit.ly/1hUSTht
    16 Apr, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    What are actual number of foreign buyers to total actual buyers??

     

    "Interest in U.S. property by residents of the United Arab Emirates rose 352%, the most out of any country."

     

    Can't tell if it is a big number by this information..
    16 Apr, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Ivelin Tzontchev
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Bullet point 1 is not entirely true.

     

    Total New Housing Units Started:
    03/01/2013 1005.0
    03/01/2014 946.0

     

    That does not represent an increase of 5.9%, but rather a decrease of 5.9% from 1 year ago

     

    (Figures from St. Louis FRED)
    16 Apr, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2493) | Send Message
     
    No worry, People are still so freaked out from the "armageddon" winter they are only now beginning to venture outside and are only doing so one at a time, just in case.
    16 Apr, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • convoluted
    , contributor
    Comments (1825) | Send Message
     
    ITB dropped like an anchor when it crossed into the promised land. But homebuilders rise and fall based on the pollen count. As indicated previously, I closed out a short position and now await the return to 25-whereupon I will begin short positions for the nth time. It's a lot like 'groundhog day'-or an even older source-'a time to keep and a time to cast away...'
    Why not accumulate to the 25 mark and then reverse course? It's the old time value of money issue. The homebuilders will invariably dust themselves off and climb that hill yet again-but it takes them weeks (maybe months) to reclaim Boothill. It's a lot easier (financially optimal) to cheer their arrival, welcome them with much fanfare and then unceremoniously kick them down the hill-yet again. After the dust settles, we begin to hear the same old music-'why, my goodness, those homebuilders are undervalued by all kinds of metrics-it just doesn't make sense, etc.'
    16 Apr, 04:36 PM Reply Like
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