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Dillard's pitched at investor conference

  • Shares of Dillard's (DDS +6.3%) perk up after Marcato Capital advises investors the stock could be worth $155. A 70% pop from where Dillard's opens trading today.
  • The Dillard's thesis was presented by Mick McGuire, the managing partner of Marcato.
Comments (7)
  • Merrill McHenry, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    Nice of him to talk his book. Perhaps he should talk to SVP who recently dumped 96% of his ENTIRE DDS holdings!
    He dumped b/e margins and earnings are toast Q1, and will likely bleed into Q2. Next thing you know 2014 is a write-off year.
    DDS has no sound competitive strategy and is merely living in the past old mall days - for which many a vacant ghost mall won't help them either:
    #1 As you read this, approximately a billion square feet of retail space is sitting vacant in the United States.
    #2 Recently Radio Shack announced that it was going to close more than a thousand stores.
    #3 Recently Staples announced that it was going to close 225 stores.
    #4 Same-store sales at Office Depot have declined for 13 quarters in a row.
    #5 J.C. Penney has been dying for years, and it recently announced plans to close 33 more stores.
    #6 J.C. Penney lost 586 million dollars during the second quarter of 2013 alone.
    #7 Sears has closed about 300 stores since 2010, and CNN is reporting that Sears is "expected to shutter another 500 Sears and Kmart locations soon".
    #8 Overall, sales numbers have declined at Sears for 27 quarters in a row.
    #9 Target has announced that it is going to eliminate 475 jobs and not fill 700 positions that are currently empty.
    #10 It is being projected that Aéropostale will close about 175 stores over the next couple of years.
    #11 Macy's has announced that it is going to be closing five stores and eliminating 2,500 jobs.
    #12 The Children’s Place has announced that it will be closing down 125 of its "weakest" stores by 2016.
    #13 Best Buy recently shut down about 50 stores  in Canada.
    #14 (You likely know) Blockbuster has completely shut down all of their stores.
    #15 Grocery margin squeeze: It is being projected that sales at U.S. supermarkets will decline by 1.7 percent this year even as the overall population continues to grow.
    #16 McDonald's reported that sales at established U.S. locations were down 3.3 percent in January.
    #17 Family Dollar has announced plans to close 370 underperforming stores this yr.
    22 Apr, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • slow$$
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Did not hear his pitch, but I wonder if he is calling it a RE play. All of these dinosaur retailers can't all be RE plays. Who is going to take all of the space?
    22 Apr, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Captain Pike
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    It's called churn boys. Laggards flounder and new guy's grow. Where are Montgomery Ward, Jordan Marsh, and Filene's?

     

    Replaced by lululemon, Cabela's, and Bass Pro to name a few. Not to mention all the dollar stores, family dollar, dollar tree, FIVE, Dollar general and more.......... and something called Walmart and another thing called Amazon

     

    The economy is growing, the oil money is mostly staying here these days, and we have way more people than we ever did, so retail will be healthy in general, but always winner's and loser's.
    22 Apr, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Captain Pike
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    thing that most people still don't know about and didn't exist very long ago will soon have 2000 stores in the US -- Aldi

     

    http://prn.to/1jw3j8A
    22 Apr, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Merrill McHenry, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    This new bull can say whatever he wants - this Q is toast on margins, earnings, and likely comps. He's just talking his position. No? Why did a SVP at several points lower and JUST RECENTLY DUMP 96% OF IS POSITION?? Near entire liquidation.

     

    The 4% excess inventory they started Q with - AFTER A MAJOR HIT TO MARGINS ALREADY, IS GOING TO KILL THIS Q'S MARGINS (where it's not only excess inventory, but it's also season end gutting too boot). That's why DDS was dumping Polo, and brand name shirts for $10 last few weeks. Goodbye margin! Good luck comps. This is DOA waiting to happen on the old tired mall formula.

     

    US retail (~60% of US GDP) is weaker than you think:
    #1 As you read this, approximately a billion square feet of retail space is sitting vacant in the United States.
    #2 Recently Radio Shack announced that it was going to close more than a thousand stores.
    #3 Recently Staples announced that it was going to close 225 stores.
    #4 Same-store sales at Office Depot have declined for 13 quarters in a row.
    #5 J.C. Penney has been dying for years, and it recently announced plans to close 33 more stores.
    #6 J.C. Penney lost 586 million dollars during the second quarter of 2013 alone.
    #7 Sears has closed about 300 stores since 2010, and CNN is reporting that Sears is "expected to shutter another 500 Sears and Kmart locations soon".
    #8 Overall, sales numbers have declined at Sears for 27 quarters in a row.
    #9 Target has announced that it is going to eliminate 475 jobs and not fill 700 positions that are currently empty.
    #10 It is being projected that Aéropostale will close about 175 stores over the next couple of years.
    #11 Macy's has announced that it is going to be closing five stores and eliminating 2,500 jobs.
    #12 The Children’s Place has announced that it will be closing down 125 of its "weakest" stores by 2016.
    #13 Best Buy recently shut down about 50 stores  in Canada.
    #14 (You likely know) Blockbuster has completely shut down all of their stores.
    #15 Grocery margin squeeze: It is being projected that sales at U.S. supermarkets will decline by 1.7 percent this year even as the overall population continues to grow.
    #16 McDonald's reported that sales at established U.S. locations were down 3.3 percent in January.
    #17 Family Dollar has announced plans to close 370 underperforming stores this yr.
    22 Apr, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Captain Pike
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    heard ya the 1st time
    22 Apr, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Merrill McHenry, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    (FYI: It didn't show as posted, nor did I hit post a second time.)
    22 Apr, 05:31 PM Reply Like
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