Analyst: Pandora investors "need to depart the bus"


"Pandora (P -14.2%) faces a significant growth rate decline, and we think investors need to depart the bus and seek alternate modes of transportation,” is the blunt assessment of Albert Fried analyst Rich Tullo, who believes the stock’s decline will get worse before it gets better.

The key worry is Pandora’s count of active listeners, which grew 8% Y/Y to 75.3M in Q1, but that isn’t strong enough for some analysts, who worry that newer services, such as Apple's iRadio, Spotify and others, could pressure growth in the future (Q1 results).

Fried thinks the growing competition and high costs will continue to crimp Pandora’s bottom line and ultimately weigh on the stock price, whose target he cuts to $20 from $23.

Earlier: Other analysts are not as pessimistic.

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Comments (14)
  • Patent News
    , contributor
    Comments (1474) | Send Message
     
    very interesting. sounds like too many competitors and not enough or no 'moat'.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1536) | Send Message
     
    I'm still amazed how this garbage even got to 40$ in the first place. This is a 8$ stock at best!
    25 Apr 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • flux8
    , contributor
    Comments (721) | Send Message
     
    I just wish I had piled onto my short position even more at $40. Oh well, it all worked out well anyhow. My approximate fair valuation is under $10. Let's see how far it goes.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • gordonfan
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    i waited till it was to late to sell
    25 Apr 2014, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • AngleSideSide
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    You need to google "sunk cost fallacy".

     

    The only time you should ever look back is when considering tax implications. Beyond that, only look forward and forget your entry point.
    29 Apr 2014, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2267) | Send Message
     
    On the other hand, if your PT is anything close to analyst ratings (out of 31 analyst ratings, including Tullo, I get an average of $36/sh, but my own PT is 70s) and you have a time frame of at least 2 years, then even if you caught $40, you sold too early! (I bought more just yesterday).
    29 Apr 2014, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1536) | Send Message
     
    If you want to lose money, listen to dgulick. Notice he extended his time frame for his retarded 70$ target with no fundamental reason. Might as well say 100$.

     

    He seems to believe that bull markets last forever.
    29 Apr 2014, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2267) | Send Message
     
    This sell off was due to no fundamental reason either, was purely a macro move from "momentum" names to "value" due to general concern about lower future earnings and a general economic slowdown, but earnings reports have been coming in strong (as of last week in the SP500 with 41% in they have 138 beats, 20 meets and only 45 misses), this along with updated guidance is saying to me that the bull market isn't over, and more so, the fundamentals and all news behind P that are of interest to investors (i.e., no debt, improving cash flow, increasing market share despite competition, etc) are all still very much in place. The sell-off was due to tripping stop losses on the momentum types and misinterpretations about "declining growth", this dip is going to prove to be temporary and a great buying opportunity (or if you are short a great covering opportunity). But one that I don't think is going to last, shares are quite undervalued here (easily 50% near term upside at current pricing).
    29 Apr 2014, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • AngleSideSide
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Wow. Best of luck to you, sir.
    30 Apr 2014, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2267) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Angle, you too (lol).
    30 Apr 2014, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1536) | Send Message
     
    You are an amateur who falls into the sunk cost fallacy. ER est were lowered incredibly to allow companies to beat, and half of them already missed or met which of its own means companies are under performing miserably and does not justify the ridiculous multiplies they trading on.

     

    Home sales marginally up from record lows but also today we got report that Home ownership is all time low which means no one can afford houses even in this cheap buyers market. The only people who are buying are most likely banks and investors trying to flip for profit which in turn will pull out once they realize there are no real buyers.

     

    With interest rate hikes looming it will only get worse and trigger another market crash. The Fed can't seem to admit they were wrong in QE so they will use the weather excuse to continue to taper asap. Once QE3 ends in Sept, banks will take a lot less risk.

     

    Once the free money dries up by Sept, reckless bets will also go away. And since majority of Americans don't have any savings or have 0$ invested in stock market it only means that volume will dry off even further and since the institutions already rotating out of risk all you got left is some traders and HFT machines which could care less about emotion or fundamentals and with volatility increasing in the market because of uncertainty in global markets (china credit crisis, Europe debt and political tension (Ukraine-Russia, China-Japan, Syria), high beta stocks like this garbage will continue to get hammered.

     

    Technically speaking, the S&P is near all time high (no much left to move higher on poor ER) while Russell is near its support level, which means if the SPY corrects, the Russell will break support and trigger major correction bring all the $SOCL garbage further down.

     

    As I said before, we are now in a general bear market, most bulls just don't know it yet because every bull falls into the rebound trap.

     

    You got lucky on a ridiculous run, did not take opportunity to cash in, now you will learn a lesson in trading. Learn to take profits and never fall in love with any stock.

     

    If you want a preview of whats coming to this garbage stock, check out $DDD
    29 Apr 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2267) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to have an intelligent conversation with you, but I'm not sure you're capable!

     

    "ER est were lowered incredibly to allow companies to beat" FALSE

     

    "half of them already missed or met" FALSE (only 22% missed and 10% met, I actually provided you this in *my* comment!)

     

    "ridiculous multiplies " FALSE

     

    "Home sales marginally up " FALSE (13% y/y marginal?)

     

    "from record lows " FALSE

     

    "Home ownership is all time low " FALSE

     

    "no one can afford houses" FALSE

     

    "cheap buyers market" FALSE (contradicting your prior sentence with this one!)

     

    "interest rate hikes looming " FALSE (ZIRP expected to last for years)

     

    "The Fed can't seem to admit they were wrong in QE " that's because they weren't! Despite your beliefs, which sounds like they stem from you missing (or being short?) the bull market, the Fed prevented a deflationary environment (negative y/y CPI ran for only 8 months in 2009).

     

    "poor ER" FALSE (last quarter SP500 EPS was an all time high and this quarter could beat it!! Laughable @manic.)

     

    "so they will use the weather excuse to continue to taper asap" this one actually made me laugh, retail and weather are related, even if you don't think so (again, perhaps because it interferes with your short?), what Yellen said was that if weather is *not* the reason for slow sales then they will *reconsider* the taper (quite the opposite of what you said). But I think this is the crux of why you are wrong, you are betting against a Fed chair that has an even looser monetary philosophy than helicopter Ben, good luck with that!
    29 Apr 2014, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1536) | Send Message
     
    40% decline from ATH with two month sell volume of almost 500m, highest over 5 years with every support technical broken. Yes this is a minor misunderstanding, lol.
    29 Apr 2014, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Donkey Dust
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    For the past 12 months I have been telling you the story of my birth in a log cabin and my rise to greatness by dabbling in the STOCK MARKET. Evidently you never read my "BLOGGGGS" and there just isn't anything more to tell.

     

    I am setting on 9000 shs. of "P" at $35.20 and getting weeker every day, showing it has no bottom. A catchey name tooooo. Was such a cute little Bear.

     

    Donkey Dust
    29 Apr 2014, 08:54 PM Reply Like
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