Solar stocks pummeled amid tech rout, Chinese forecast cut


The latest rout in once-high-flying tech momentum plays isn't leaving solar stocks unscathed. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -6.2%) is now down 21% from its March 7 high of $51.07.

Likely adding fuel to the fire: Credit Suisse has slashed its 2014 Chinese solar installation forecast by 500MW to 11.5GW, soundly below the government's 14GW target (set in February). CS thinks policy changes related to utility-scale projects, feed-in tariff reimbursement, and distributed solar incentives are needed for investment to pick up.

The firm adds JinkoSolar (JKS -10.8%), Trina (TSL -12.2%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -12.8%) are well-positioned to profit from downstream projects, given they have access to financing from the China Development Bank and other sources. On the other hand, it thinks Yingli (YGE -4.1%) and ReneSola (SOL -8.8%) are "less likely to access project capital due to their strained balance sheets." Yingli recently priced a stock offering expected to yield $83M in net proceeds.

Other decliners: FSLR -5.3%. SCTY -7.1%. SUNE -6.8%. CSUN -9.8%. JASO -9.4%. DQ -9.3%. HSOL -5.9%. SPWR -5.1%.

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Comments (23)
  • sophocles
    , contributor
    Comments (238) | Send Message
     
    I see the ones CS likes are down more than the ones they dislike. Are we supposed to think having access to capital and permits is not a good thing?
    28 Apr 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • wheelz23
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    CS just wanted to buy some shares. They've heard the CEO's talking about solar demand in Asia and they read the solar exports reports ( http://bit.ly/1m1TTVf ). But they are right, pick and choose wisely.
    28 Apr 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Sermer
    , contributor
    Comments (350) | Send Message
     
    This feels like fear selling to me. I guess that makes me a buyer :)
    The key with solar stocks is to keep an eye on the prize. They may be falling now but the environment is rapidly improving and they'll be setting records again before we know it. Solar is the future!
    28 Apr 2014, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Guy in Ithaca
    , contributor
    Comments (428) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. Many of these were overpriced. Since I have the unusual notion that there is a relationship between alternate, green, renewable, non-carbon energy producers; I would like to mention that incredible geothermal utilities like U.S. Geothermal Corporation (HTM) have never been up. Not because they don't have a bright future and not because they are not profitable, but solely because they are under the radar and not noticed. Geothermal energy is absolutely constant and particularly available in the West and Mid-West. Geothermal equities could conceivably explode in value just by getting noticed. Thanks.
    28 Apr 2014, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3473) | Send Message
     
    Nothing of concern for FSLR. In fact, the pullback is good for the stock, as it enabled many side-liners to jump back into play. Judging by the volume traded, it was the opportunists and traders (I'm one of them) which took the chance to short the stock and bring down the price, so that they can buy back at the bottom and profit from the round-trip. I was able to make a $4.50/share profit on the way down and the price has now come up by almost $2 from the bottom. Live long and prosper.
    28 Apr 2014, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3473) | Send Message
     
    Although the current price of FSLR is still somewhat over-valued, i.e. over-blown, I'm convinced that FSLR will not suffer the consequences that it's competitors are struggling with, by virtue of its forward contracts and cash-pile, etc.
    28 Apr 2014, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (4352) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if it has anything to do with the news that the Koch brothers are lobbying for Utility Companies to charge a hefty fee to feed back energy into the grid or not allow any feedback. Very evil people.
    28 Apr 2014, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3473) | Send Message
     
    Where did you get the news about the Koch Bros? Seems like a lot of people are out to paint them as being greedy and ruthless, when they are in fact extremely generous with their time and treasure, besides being patriotic and protecting our american values all the time. They are true patriots.
    28 Apr 2014, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Gekko4321
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like someone who drinks the Fox News kool-aid.
    28 Apr 2014, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • MKBaxley
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    I think it would do you good to get a little more of the "Kool Aid". Do you really take Harry Reid seriously?
    29 Apr 2014, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (4352) | Send Message
     
    It was in the NY Times

     

    http://nyti.ms/1itzvOY
    28 Apr 2014, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3473) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, I don't read the NYT because they're too liberal and biased for my taste but I will check out the report. Have a wonderful week.
    28 Apr 2014, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • jblackwolf
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Spwr, Csiq, and Sune have a large presence in Japan, Canada, the US, South America and elsewhere….I'd be more concerned if Japan cut it's outlook.
    Great buying opportunity ….thanks, CS
    28 Apr 2014, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7078) | Send Message
     
    LOL! One thing about China, if they want to spend "X" amount of money of solar projects, they will. The Chinese government will not change its mind based on what a foreign bank thinks.
    28 Apr 2014, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (4352) | Send Message
     
    How about the Los Angeles Times. It's the same same story.Koch brothers against solar energy.
    28 Apr 2014, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (4352) | Send Message
     
    Here is the URL
    http://lat.ms/1m3XwKg
    28 Apr 2014, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3473) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link but I consider LA Times to be almost as bad as NYT because they are biased and blame conservatives for everything that went wrong or can go wrong. That's why the independents are increasing in numbers, as they get disillusioned with the Dems and the liberals but few would change their skin to join the conservatives. I'm a redneck conservative.
    29 Apr 2014, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7078) | Send Message
     
    You do know that the Republican party of today is not the same Republican party of 1980s.
    29 Apr 2014, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3473) | Send Message
     
    Of course, Michael, the Repubs of today are vastly different from the 19802. They are too messed up and lacking in conviction, so they're pulling themselves in too many different directions. They need a charismatic person, who can mobilize the base once again and force the top to put aside their petty differences and focus on the bigger picture. The Dems used to suffer similar problems because back then, Repubs were focused and shared similar values, so everyone and anyone who disagreed with them ended up with the Dems. There laid the problems for the Dems because they were too busy fighting among themselves to put up a serious challenge to the GOP, until Clinton came along and got the Dems to line up behind him and pulled off a surprise victory.

     

    That was the time when the GOP began to lose their focus. It was fortunate that they had Newt Gingrich who helped the GOP to re-focus their vision, which forced Clinton to come to the center and worked with the GOP for the good of the country. GW benefited from the GOP's renewed sense of focus while the Dems went back to their old ways and were in disarray, until Obama came along and enabled the Dems to come together again. Hence, it was the GOP who lost twice to the Dems. It was not the Dems that won. Unless the GOP can get their act together, they will lose again to the Dems by default, even though everything is now going against the Dems. That's my take at being fair and balanced.
    29 Apr 2014, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7078) | Send Message
     
    Well, I hope the Republicans lose, because as far as I can see, with the current Republican mindset and all the religious lunatics they bring, the Democrats are the lesser of the two evils. I am and will always be an Independent, because neither party is always better than the other. Until American voters start voting for the better candidate and NOT the party, America is doomed.
    29 Apr 2014, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3473) | Send Message
     
    Michael, I certainly hope you're absolutely right, that American voters really vote for the better candidate and not the party, because very few Dems would qualify. I'm deeply angered that our voters don't care enough about our country and come out to vote, as if nobody cares anymore who runs the country and how it has deteriorated since Obama came to office. The entitlement mentality, just like the pro-minority policy in our colleges, increasing food stamps, etc., etc., has made millions of people dependent on handouts and less able to fend for themselves.

     

    I was born poor and struggled, by the grace of God, through untold difficulties, and made something for myself, without a single complaint in my bones. None of my five kids took any scholarships or financial grants because we can afford it, even though all of them had straight A's. I made them work as soon as they entered high school because I taught them that they must work for everything they need, instead of depending on handouts. I was so proud of them when I divided my idle assets among them, because none of them took a single penny for themselves and kept them in a trust for their kids.

     

    Although I'm not a TEA partier, I'm disgusted at how Obama and his cronies had been attacking TEA parties to keep them out of politics because they had individually taken some 88 seats in 2010, which scared the hell out of the Dems. TEA stands for Taxed Enough Already, which was a spontaneous movement comprising mainly of independents, with many Dems and Repubs, and it's not a nationally centered political party. The Dems don't seem to get it. Over-taxation of business owners (to feed their spending habits) will kill our economy. All Repub states have lower taxes, less unemployment and greater economic growth than Dem states. Why do you think people are bailing from California and going to places like Texas? Anyway, I'm deeply saddened that the GOP can't get their act together and has lost the last two elections by default.
    30 Apr 2014, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (4352) | Send Message
     
    No matter what you think, the Koch Brothers are trying to keep Solar energy from the public. Typical head in the sand action, don't tell me the truth because as a conservative I won't believe it.
    29 Apr 2014, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3473) | Send Message
     
    I've got nothing to say about this matter concerning the Koch Bros and I'm not interested to get into this matter because I really don't know enough to form an opinion, so don't jump to any conclusion about me. I only said that, from the way that NYT and LAT wrote their reports, any idiot will know that they are dead-set against the GOP and are cooking up allegations about the Koch Bros to take a swipe at the GOP, which is why I don't believe them, even if the smoke is real. There are lots of other billionaires who are promoting the Dems' agenda but nobody seems to write about them because the media is all behind the Dems and simply ignoring any news that isn't advantageous to the Dems. If the GOP had been involved in all the current scandals, the media would be screaming for blood, e.g. Benghazi, IRS, AP, Obamacare, etc., etc.

     

    I am a patriot first and conservative second. I served my country for many years and came away a better person because I've seen all the dirt and filth in other countries, which convinced me that our cause is just and our country is the best and worth dying for, regardless of our messy policies. I don't serve any party and I will call out any idiot whether he's the President or anyone else if he has done something stupid or wrong. Only in America can we accumulate wealth as easily as many do because we're indeed a land of opportunities, so we shouldn't tear down our country just because we disagree with the policies of the govt. We must work together to effect change if it's needed, rather than tearing ourselves apart. I didn't get two purple hearts for nothing. I'm proud of being an American although I'm not proud, deeply saddened in fact, of how our country has been reduced to a toothless tiger and our enemies laugh at us. We can disagree about anything under the sun but we cannot put our country to shame and negate all the sacrifices by our military over the years, especially the hundreds of thousands who had left a piece of themselves overseas for the love of our beloved country, Land of the Free and Home of the Brave!!
    29 Apr 2014, 11:20 AM Reply Like
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