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Kantar: Android takes share in U.S., iPhone gains in Japan, WP "stutters"

  • With U.S. carriers trying hard to lower subsidy spend, Android (GOOG -0.8%) grew its U.S. smartphone share to 57.6% in Q1 from 49.3% a year earlier, thinks Kantar Worldpanel. Kantar also estimates Google's OS grew its EU5 share by 150 bps to 70.7% and its Chinese share by 810 bps to 80%, albeit while seeing its Japanese share drop 430 bps to 57.3%.
  • Five days after Apple (AAPL +3.6%) reported its Japanese sales rose 26% Y/Y, Kantar estimates the company's Japanese share rose 860 bps 57.6%. On the other hand, its U.S. share fell 780 bps to 43.7%, and its Chinese share 540 bps to 17.9%. EU5 share rose fractionally to 19.2%.
  • Strong phablet sales boosted Android's Chinese position: Over 40% of the country's March smartphone sales involved 5"+ devices. Can a 5.5" iPhone give Apple a lift?
  • Following recent share gains, Kantar thinks Windows Phone (MSFT +2.3%) is slumping due to low-end Android competition: Though its 8.1% EU5 share is up 160 bps Y/Y, it's down from recent 9%+ levels.WP's U.S. and Chinese shares are respectively at 5.3% (-30 bps) and 1% (-90 bps).
  • Meanwhile, with the Nokia deal closed, new Microsoft hardware chief Stephen Elop says Redmond is committed to supporting the low-end Nokia X Android phones. Elop: "Nokia X uses the MSFT cloud, not Google's. This is a great opportunity to connect new customers..."
  • While many tech momentum stocks get crushed, Apple and Microsoft are benefiting from a flight to safety. Apple has made fresh 52-week highs, and Microsoft is close to its 52-week high of $41.66.
Comments (34)
  • Piptief
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    What is the use of quoting market share numbers when no money is being generated from said market share?
    28 Apr, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • MajorDude
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Good point.

     

    Another question is why market share is measured in units sold and not dollars spent - a professional with an iPhone who uses it to spend $500 a year on services and software represents more share than a kid with a cheapo Android phone.
    28 Apr, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • jammerculture
    , contributor
    Comments (395) | Send Message
     
    Who spends $500 a year on software and services for their phones?
    28 Apr, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Eldernorm
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    Actually a lot of iOS users spend money on their systems.

     

    However, android users spend way less per person average. They also do not use the web anywhere near as much. I believe web usage in the US was like 77% iOS last quarter /year/what ever.

     

    Facts vs desire. Just a thought.
    29 Apr, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Skippy09
    , contributor
    Comments (1539) | Send Message
     
    Because market share comparisons are a bears' game and they play it all the time. I catalog it right there with:

     

    1. Steve Jobs is dead
    2. Apple's lost its innovation
    3. Tim Cook should be fired
    4. etc.,etc.,etc. I'm just glad I learned early
    to tune out the noise.

     

    PS: Andy Zakey (SP?) was right, he was just a few years too early.
    30 Apr, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (888) | Send Message
     
    noise distracts the undisciplined
    28 Apr, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (888) | Send Message
     
    also, no graph of any complex event is monotonic
    28 Apr, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Arthur Fisher
    , contributor
    Comments (238) | Send Message
     
    As many have noted, such data is meaningless unless cross-referenced to price ranges. More people fly coach than first-class, but not because they wouldn't really rather fly first-class.
    28 Apr, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • David RG
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
     
    Well in mobile Smartphones, most people buy subsidized phones, so the carrier is paying most of the price difference between a high end and mid range phone, not the consumer.

     

    Not exactly the same as paying 1st class vs. coach.
    28 Apr, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • gcgretired
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    "Well in mobile Smartphones, most people buy subsidized phones, so the carrier is paying most of the price difference between a high end and mid range phone, not the consumer.

     

    Not exactly the same as paying 1st class vs. coach".

     

    Actually, most people buy a subsidized phone and a 2 year contract. The carrier is really not paying or subsidizing; just fronting the customer a loan.
    28 Apr, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • David RG
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
     
    Not really. If you "buy" a $750 premium phone from Apple or Samsung at $300 or a Moto X at $0, you pay the same data plan rate. But the carrier will be forking over $450 to Apple, $400 to Samsung, or $200 to Motorola/Lenovo.

     

    So the premium Smartphones get greater subsidization.
    28 Apr, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    Yes it is. Some people get phones with a plan for free or next to free (coach) and some people fly first class and spend over $500.00 for an unlocked phone or a locked iPhone with 64 gigs (First Class).
    28 Apr, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • David RG
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
     
    Jack - the point is that the carrier pays a higher $ amount for the iPhone or Galaxy Note 3 price than the more budget oriented offerings like Moto X. Any freshman economics major can explain what the effect is on consumer behavior. It increases demand for the products that are more heavily subsidized.
    28 Apr, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    The Moto X tear down found the component pricing > the then IPhone 5 and Galaxy S4 greats ...
    28 Apr, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Eldernorm
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    Actually those getting a subsidized price usually are paying much more for the service. The carrier's choice not mine or the average user.
    29 Apr, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't matter how much subsidization there is if someone cannot afford a $300.00 price point. Those that can afford it pay it and those that can't pay coach.
    1 May, 04:08 AM Reply Like
  • David RG
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
     
    You are kidding yourself if you think $300 vs. $750 doesn't change demand for a product by a significant amount.
    1 May, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    I never said a lower price point doesn't change demand for a product. What I said was exactly the opposite. Many more people in the world can afford to pay Zero (coach) than $300.00 for a subsidized phone (first class). In term of your argument about greater subsidization driving more sales a the high end that is only true for those in a socioeconomic position to make that choice. Most in the world do not have that luxury -- even at the $300.00 price point.
    3 May, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • imac007
    , contributor
    Comments (493) | Send Message
     
    These stats are all about customers and what they bought.
    The purpose of this forum is to look at the companies and how much they are making. Very low margins need extremely high revenues to make moderate profit. Apple blew away revenue estimates by $2B on higher than expected margins. High margin plus high margins means great profits which translate into share value. Cash doesn't need Wall Street approval. It laughs at Wall Street.

     

    Some analysts want to discount the cash. An S&P company with a balanced cash to debt ratio historically will sell for 16x earnings. When a company has an unbalanced cash to debt ratio the analysts try to discount the cash in one of two ways. One they ignore the cash when calculating eps ratio, or two, they complain about the cash, characterizing it as a horde, like it was a dead weight holding down the company.

     

    The fact that analyst estimates can miss by $2B points to the need for RELEVANT data for evaluating the company, not the consumer. Even telling us what market share at each price point is irrelevant without linking it to profit.

     

    That's how the con man works.
    If they can get you asking the wrong questions they don't have to have the right answers. In the long term the market is about asking the right questions.
    28 Apr, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • portatopia
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    I've seen a lot of disposable phones being sold at Walgreens running Androids as well. So the measure of Android market share is totally nonsensical.
    28 Apr, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • RDPFSGMobile
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    Marketshare is only one piece of the economic puzzle. Any company can increase marketshare percentage by reducing price and many other strategies. That marketshare becomes almost worthless if it can't be developed into a profitable business. That is the challenge facing all Android phone manufacturers. How to convert marketshare to a long term profitable business model. It can be done but it is not the easiest path as the premium solution provider can always move their solutions downward as Apple has done with the 4S and 5C. Much easier to move down then move up from my marketing experience. It will be interesting to watch for sure.
    28 Apr, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Transcripts&10-K's
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    "That is the challenge facing all Android phone manufacturers. How to convert marketshare to a long term profitable business model."

     

    Spot-on; here's what Steven Elop said in a recent interview when asked why Nokia chose to focus on WP over Android:

     

    "When we made the decision to focus on Windows Phone back in 2011, we were very concerned that a decision to pursue Android would put us on a collision course with Samsung, who already had established a head of steam around Android. That was the right decision, as we have seen virtually all other OEMs from those days pushed to the side."

     

    By the way, on another topic: does Google make any money on their 80% market share position in China? Here's a quote from a February 2014 article from the UK editor-in-chief for ZDNet, Steve Ranger:

     

    "In China there are vast numbers of Android phones that do not have any Google services on whatever — perhaps as few as six percent have Google services on according to one estimate."

     

    I don't know the answer; I would be interested in hearing the opinions of someone who does.

     

    By the way, here's an MIT Review article on the topic:

     

    http://bit.ly/SR5MzW
    28 Apr, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2238) | Send Message
     
    The entire Android system is sub-par and most Android phones are cheap feature phones useless for internet surfing or ecommerce or watching video. And Google shows no signs of investing to upgrade it much. Meanwhile, the marathon continues and Apple is like the Ethiopian runner laps ahead of everyone. There is no way Android will ever be anywhere near equal again. So who cares how many poor people and little kids use Android phones? There is very little profit in that business and competition or horrific.

     

    Apple now has virtually no competition in the top 25% of the market where all the profits are. And you can soon expect Samsung to give up even trying to compete, and Microsoft to gradually phase out Windows altogether. That will leave Apple as not only king of the hill but emperor of the world in terms of profitability from mobile and computing.
    28 Apr, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    Obviously you don't know the market.

     

    I love Apple products, but I was not going to buy a redundancy of IOS for something over $600. I am most satisfied of 2/3rd the cost on a Moto X.

     

    Neither Samsung Galaxy S (since 3), nor Apple IPhone (since 4) have made appreciable technological advances in 2 years. At least, for the IPhone it can maintain that premium for longer than the Galaxy S/Note.
    28 Apr, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    IPHone over $700 after tax, CA tax!
    28 Apr, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • NicZ
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    @bjnflicks "Apple now has virtually no competition in the top 25% of the market where all the profits are."

     

    what? Samsung sold 20m Galaxy 4 smartphones in the first two months it was available and the 10m Note 3 in the first two months it was available. It has just been reported that the new Galaxy 5 is taking 25% market share since launch.

     

    Apple is the leading player in the upper end, but to think it has no competition is laughable. Apples biggest risk is that subsidies start to vanish and the market price for high end smartphones comes down, eroding its fat margins. Suddenly Apple's cheap 10x PE, becomes 20x and the price collapses.
    29 Apr, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    NicZ:

     

    G-Nexus lowered the pricing of top quality Android phones.

     

    Samsung Galaxies have the well-known branding advantage. Whenever I pull out my handsome ebony black Moto X.

     

    People ask excitedly: WHAT BRAND?

     

    When I flip it over disappointedly they respond: Oh it's a Motorola.

     

    People don't care it was "Made in the USA" or was 57% cheaper.

     

    For now its an IPhone/Galaxy Cn with the latter losing brand power.
    29 Apr, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • David RG
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
     
    NicZ - it seems Samsung hasn't quite given up just yet.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mUlewy

     

    http://bit.ly/1mUlhbz
    29 Apr, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    http://on.wsj.com/1mUvzZo
    Five Takeaways from Samsung Earnings
    By Jonathan Cheng and Min-Jeong Lee
    1 Samsung’s smartphone margins are roughly flat versus a year ago, but face increasing pressure from cheaper Chinese rivals.

     

    2 Speaking of marketing, Samsung is re-emphasizing its ability to keep its famously hefty ad budget in check.

     

    3 Samsung’s cash pile grew, but the company hasn’t yet offered any sign of what it plans to do with it.

     

    4 Semiconductors, the brightest spot for Samsung over the past year, keep on trucking.

     

    5 Semiconductors, the brightest spot for Samsung over the past year, keep on trucking.
    29 Apr, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Eldernorm
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    Best of luck to you with your new religion! When someone asks what phone they use, they answer.... an iPhone (4,5,?) or they can answer one of the hundreds of android phones out there. My point,... Apple seems to be able to make a phone that keeps selling for years while samsung has to make a "new" phone every 3 months just to keep people buying.... the next,next, next new thing. PS,, BOGO so the free one acts as a replacement when the first one dies.
    Just saying.
    29 Apr, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • David RG
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
     
    "Just saying"

     

    But not really true what you are just saying.
    29 Apr, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2238) | Send Message
     
    Moombai motorized rickshaw company sells more units than BMW and Mercedes. Same difference,
    28 Apr, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Bbloomlu
    , contributor
    Comments (224) | Send Message
     
    The sky is falling. Oops someone forgot to tell Apples stock!
    28 Apr, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • donzoamania
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    US consumers are simply waiting for the IPhone 6. Than we'll see who has the mkt share. Stop sweating the day by day useless analysts reports.
    28 Apr, 08:28 PM Reply Like
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