Twitter's full-year revenue outlook disappoints


Twitter (TWTR) expects Q2 revenue of $270M-$280M vs. a $272.9M consensus. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to total $25M-$30M, down from Q1's $37M (above guidance of $10M-$16M).

The company's full-year revenue guidance range has been hiked by $50M to $1.2B-$1.25B; however, the consensus is already at $1.24B. Adjusted EBITDA guidance has been raised to $180M-$205M from $150M-$180M.

Monthly active users (MAUs) rose 6% Q/Q and 25% Y/Y to 255M, roughly in-line with expectations. Mobile MAUs +8% Q/Q and +31% Y/Y to 198M.

Timeline views rose 6% Q/Q and just 15% Y/Y to 157B. Timeline views had fallen 7% in Q4, something Twitter partly blamed on a shift to conversation views.

Ad sales rose 125% Y/Y to $226M; a barrage of new ad products helped growth picked up from Q4's 121%. Data licensing/other revenue rose 76% to $24M vs. 80% in Q4. Mobile accounted for 80% of ad revenue, up from 75% in Q4 and 70% in Q3.

International revenue only accounted for 28% of total revenue, up slightly from Q4's 27%. $50M was spent on capex.

TWTR -8.6% AH. Q1 results, PR

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Comments (48)
  • monfrere
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    Here come the commenters wondering why Twitter isnt worth $25B even though they "beat" their numbers with a whole 270M in revenue and no profit instead of losing money.
    29 Apr 2014, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Coalfan
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Guess you missed this part eh? Seems they lost quite a bit

     

    Twitter Inc. said Tuesday that it had a loss of $132.4 million, or 23 cents per share, in the January-March quarter
    29 Apr 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • citizenleung
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
     
    Why couldn't Twitter fit its report in 140 characters?

     

    #ToLongToRead
    29 Apr 2014, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Archman Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3349) | Send Message
     
    Ahh the hilarity that is TWTR. Wait until the real bear market comes. This should be interesting.

     

    TWTR is:
    *50% ads
    *30% millennials who do not want to work and just create a "brand" around themselves and blog for a living (LOL this segment always makes me laugh, as most of them offer no real content and just link to other stories or "talk" about how they are going become successful rather than actually just "do it")
    *20% of TWTR that offers any real value at all.
    29 Apr 2014, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • phemale60
    , contributor
    Comments (3028) | Send Message
     
    Archman:

     

    What a debbie downer....."30% millennials who do not want to work and just create a "brand" around themselves and blog for a living"

     

    Not everyone wants to frack or work at Walmart. Got a problem with that? How narrow are you?

     

    I suppose if Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Steve Zuckerberg, etc. were working at a Micky Ds instead of tinkering and using their imaginations people like you would make more money in fossil fuels, heh?
    29 Apr 2014, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Archman Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3349) | Send Message
     
    phemale60:

     

    It is always easy for us who have made it, who are the real creators of wealth and jobs to see things for what they are. Some of us know things like TWTR can be used to create even more wealth yet for most they are another layer of their costume where underneath they have zero substance. Hence my comment.

     

    That 30% of people i mentioned can do whatever they want to do. Just don't have them go crying to those of us that are "doing" and owning this country.
    I love how everything is so dumbed down now that you can now be up to 28 yrs old and still be called a "developing adult"..LOL. (I just read that in an article that was targeted for the "Millennial" generation. See that's what they do. The keep reinforcing the excuses for their inadequacies and keep telling them "Hey its ok. You're now 28 and a loser. Don't worry though. It will all work itself out".)

     

    In my day back in the early 80's the minute you turned 20 you were a "man" or "adult". Now in today's world where everything is rationalized and excuses made for everyone you can be labeled a child well into your 20's in order to hide the short comings of an entire generation of millennials.

     

    If someone doesn't want to frack or work at Walmart hey that's fine with me. But you better be working and adding something to the real GDP of this country or get out. You don't get to breathe my air and drink my water if you are just going to live off the productive of this country.

     

    To bad that 90% of the entire millennial generation is nothing like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, or Mark Zuckerberg. If they were unemployment would be dropping like a stone and 50% of all college graduates would not be under employed or out right unemployed as they are right now. And since their broke parents were to busy "pretending" to be wealthy instead of actually "being" wealthy, they made sure that their kids got loaded up with enough student debt to insure that they will take 30 years to pay it back.

     

    So really, save your speech for someone who doesn't know any better. Your barking up the wrong tree. I have been a professional in my field since the day I turned 22 back in '86 and have a long list of accomplishments (and $$) to show for it.

     

    My original statement about the 30% on TWTR stands and is 100% correct. Millennials love to "talk and talk and talk" but never actually "do".
    10% are the ones who are like Zuckerberg, et al. and are truly creating and innovating. The rest think life is a reality show where they can create a "brand" around themselves that underneath has no real substance whatsoever. They are looking for an easy way out without having to break a sweat. Anyone who spends some time on Twitter knows what I mean. It is beyond comical.
    29 Apr 2014, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1111) | Send Message
     
    > Anyone who spends some time on Twitter knows what I mean.

     

    I spend plenty of time on Twitter. It is hardly different than other corners of the internet, Seeking Alpha included; there is both insight and self-aggrandizing vapidity.
    29 Apr 2014, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • KoacNation
    , contributor
    Comments (1234) | Send Message
     
    anti-fracking and anti-Walmart

     

    hmmmmm . . .

     

    I'm guessing you're a liberal.

     

    I've never seen you post anything but your love for the website and nothing about the stock.

     

    Unfortunately you have yet to see that the stock is a separate entity from the website.

     

    The stock is doomed, the website is fun.

     

    Eventually you'll be forced to see this whether you like it or not.
    29 Apr 2014, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (5565) | Send Message
     
    Yup - just like those kids in the 1970s - long unwashed hair, taking all manner of mind altering drugs and listening to - dont know if you can even call it music - more like voodoo noise - with bands calling themselves The Beatles, Rolling Stones and the worst noisiest of all The Who.
    That generation will never amount to anything - wish they'd get a haircut and get a decent job at GM.
    30 Apr 2014, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • mscottbone
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Archman Investor,

     

    Thank you for the quantitative, and well researched, analysis of the most innovative and popular news medium on the planet.

     

    With all that money, you should have an easy time initiating a very large short position. Best of luck.
    30 Apr 2014, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    So, liberals are anti-fracking? You don't even know what liberal means because the freaking US economy is actually based on liberalism. There is a type of liberalism called capitalism (economic liberalism).

     

    30 Apr 2014, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Archman Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3349) | Send Message
     
    I don't short stocks.
    30 Apr 2014, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3457) | Send Message
     
    AI, you should try shorting some ridiculously high stocks and then, you will enjoy the sweet taste of success because what goes up must come down (especially when there's nothing to hold it up or keep it up) and the higher it flies, the lower the fall, as well as the faster it goes up, the faster it will come back down. Those are my maxims, which is basically common-sense, and inherent in most human beings. Once we understand how gamblers respond to changing circumstances, we will know how and when to get it or get out. Such principles, among several others, have enabled me to make money almost everyday. That's why I've always said that it's easier to make money on the short side than to go long-term (unless you're an occasional investor and not a daily trader like me). Have a wonderful day. I made my daily quota within the hour, so I'm going for an early and long lunch with my golfing and trading buddies and exchange info for tomorrow. Live long and prosper, my friend.
    30 Apr 2014, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3360) | Send Message
     
    What does TWTR make? besides not money?
    29 Apr 2014, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    1980, you should be on Twitter as every of your comments fits into 140 characters.
    29 Apr 2014, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • phemale60
    , contributor
    Comments (3028) | Send Message
     
    It makes social connecting, creativity, fun.
    29 Apr 2014, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • KoacNation
    , contributor
    Comments (1234) | Send Message
     
    clearly that's worthy of a $20 billion dollar company!
    29 Apr 2014, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • D. Appleton & Company
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    Twitter is doomed. Can't monetize. Only 255MM users. That just won't cut it.
    29 Apr 2014, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Only 255 million users? Only?
    29 Apr 2014, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Brendan O'Boyle
    , contributor
    Comments (1285) | Send Message
     
    Don't be silly, that just means they have growth potential.
    29 Apr 2014, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • mlauritz
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    So FB with not even 4 times the MAUs is worth over 6 times more in Market Cap?

     

    I have to disagree; ALL of these Publicly Traded Ad Revenue Based Social Media Firms are Doomed at these ridiculous Valuations.
    30 Apr 2014, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stockbrokers
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    "30% millennials who do not want to work and just create a "brand" around themselves and blog for a living (LOL this segment always makes me laugh, as most of them offer no real content and just link to other stories or "talk" about how they are going become successful rather than actually just "do it")"

     

    haha, spot on, hipsters all the way.
    29 Apr 2014, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • phemale60
    , contributor
    Comments (3028) | Send Message
     
    What a bunch of cynical know-nothings. Smart Twitter users obviously don't patronize this site.
    29 Apr 2014, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • 22643611
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    @phemale60, you use twitter and patronize this site.

     

    Ironic
    30 Apr 2014, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • 22643611
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I am of the opinion TWTR will continue to trend lower and lower with waning interest
    from traders and retail investors capitulating along the way.

     

    I do not think it will go up for any other reason than being way oversold and deadcat bounces.

     

    Sideways and down is how I see it proceeding.
    29 Apr 2014, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • 22643611
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I have no position in this stock
    29 Apr 2014, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • 22643611
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    One last thing...why would any investor - especially one who uses twitter, think that
    the service cluttering up your phone screen with more ads and other crappola would attract new members to the site?
    That really baffles me especially with all the alternatives as well as new social / news
    sites popping up all the time.
    It should have been obvious with the lack of new members and waning usage
    by existing members that twitter had for the most part plateaued especially when it came to possible revenue streams.
    29 Apr 2014, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • D. Appleton & Company
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    It's not the ad clutter. I believe users actually like ads if they're precisely targeted. The biggest problem with Twitter is that they don't have a system of targeting ads because most people tweet gibberish and reveal little about their interests. In other words, Twitter's ad platform is vastly inferior to their competitors.
    29 Apr 2014, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • mlauritz
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    @ Emmanuel

     

    The average user actually WANTS to see Ads?!

     

    Dude; you're losing your grip on Reality... Quit drinking the FB Kool-Aid :(
    30 Apr 2014, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Island_Dweller
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Everyone so far on this thread is jumping onboard the "let's hate this stock to look like we know what's up" train. If you think the world is ready to give up on TWTR, it sure doesn't look like advertising companies are.

     

    When this much hate, ridicule, and outright glee on a plunge after a "beat" starts to crescendo like a dramatic scene in a movie, along with the talking heads on news networks saying stay away, I get to thinking and analyzing.

     

    How imbedded is TWTR in today's 'net? Does it compliment the other social media sites or directly compete? Is it a source for important breaking information? Does the international community value TWTR's platform?

     

    Not initiating a position yet, but truth be told, it's starting to get real interesting given the fall from grace. There's money to be made in this name.
    29 Apr 2014, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • 22643611
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Hate?
    No. Reality that I and others have been saying this would happen since mid 50's
    just trying to point out the obvious fall and hopefully some would get out in time.
    if I was still short I would be gleeful because I enjoy making profits.
    i take no pleasure in folks losing money but I also dont feel sorry for people who dont cut losses or trade on hope
    29 Apr 2014, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Grandits
    , contributor
    Comments (634) | Send Message
     
    Good comment. Definitely some value in twitter but not $70 per share worth, $30 would be different story and make it a potential buy.
    30 Apr 2014, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • EquityInvestor1
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Dick Costolo will be on CNBC at 9AM, before the market opens. Sleep well shorts!
    29 Apr 2014, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • bronchiti
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    If it gets under 30$ I might take a look at it...
    29 Apr 2014, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • EquityInvestor1
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    1.3 Million Tweets were sent during the NBA Commissioner press release that took place today between 2-3PM I think this describes the essence of Twitter and advertisers knows it.
    29 Apr 2014, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    I think the same will happen to $TWTR as did to $FB - eventually they find a way to commercialize it better and win.
    29 Apr 2014, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • phemale60
    , contributor
    Comments (3028) | Send Message
     
    I'll tell you when Twitter will be on fire. Just as the November elections begin heating up --- it's already starting now. Politicians, aides, consultants, reporters, sites, all pumping candidates and bashing candidates --- just the kind of circus I love!
    29 Apr 2014, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but wait until $TWTR has bottomed Phemale. You will get the shares cheaper in between than they are now.
    30 Apr 2014, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3360) | Send Message
     
    Indeed they will be much cheaper (as they deserve) But what makes one think a bounceback is inevitable?

     

    Profitless companies do not always bounce back. Some times they die, go to zero, and stay there forever.
    30 Apr 2014, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • ronin2015
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    I am not a short term trader but the price action on TWTR seemed very suspicious to me today. TWTR opened at 40.53 and rose steadily peaking at 43.97, up a solid $3.44. With eight minutes left in trading it was still up at $43.71, and then suddenly dropped to $42.62, a loss of $1.09 in 8 minutes. It continued to drop substantially in after hours trading, although earnings were not announced for another hour.

     

    Questions: Was the rise of $3.44 (8.5%) due to optimism over the earnings report or due to some sort of manipulation? If it was simple investor enthusiasm, why the sudden change in the last 8 minutes? Or was there an engineered short squeeze?
    8 Minutes before the close, sentiment and the price changed dramatically to the bearish. This was well before the release of earnings. Was there insider trading causing the selling? I see no news or analysis released publicly in those moments to account for it. It seems hard to explain otherwise.
    A group with the power to engineer a short squeeze by calling back shares could benefit from the rise and with prior knowledge of the earnings report could also benefit greatly from the drop late in the day. A great deal of money could be made in one day on both the bull and bear side.
    This is all hypothetical, but I find it difficult to explain the price movements any other way.
    Does anyone have thoughts on this and particularly knowledge on activities such as calling in shorted shares that could shed light on this? Given the very high short ratio in TWTR, it would be vulnerable to such a maneuver.
    Thanks, and good luck to all honest investors, bull or bear.
    Disclosure: I have a moderate June put position; the intraday fluctuations today had no direct effect on me.

     

    29 Apr 2014, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • KoacNation
    , contributor
    Comments (1234) | Send Message
     
    I've watched every minute of TWTR's market action for the past 4 months. I'm not kidding, I have a job that allows me to have one screen on it all day. The move down at the end of the day, while suspicious on an earnings day, is not out of the norm for TWTR. I've seen this thing move up and down 1 or even 2% in minutes. It's crazy volatile. So given the pending announcement I have no problem seeing that as "normal" for TWTR.

     

    But anything is possible. I'm more suspicious of how for the past 4 months at 6AM CST TWTR has been up 1% or so on 1000 shares every single day despite anyone with eyes could tell you it was gonna be cheaper later in the day. It's as if someone had a job to prop it up 1% every morning as early as possible
    29 Apr 2014, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • tawse57
    , contributor
    Comments (830) | Send Message
     
    Is it possible that it is indeed YOUR job to prop TWTR up each morning by 1% at 6AM?

     

    Let's look at the facts here:

     

    You have a job that allows you to monitor the price constantly. You have a monitor dedicated to the TWTR stock price. You are indeed up at 6AM each morning when the stock price rises.

     

    Is it possible that you are indeed the propper but that you have simply forgotten that you are out of boredom? Your concious mind is in denial that your subconcious mind is, each morning, buying 1,000 shares of TWTR?

     

    LOL! :-)

     

    Take a day off and let's see what happens!
    30 Apr 2014, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3457) | Send Message
     
    150.....I'm tempted to reply to your poser but I've already made most of my points in other posts, so I'll wait for others to step in. I'm going out with my daughter to buy her a house today. Good luck.
    1 May 2014, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1111) | Send Message
     
    > Just as the November elections begin heating up

     

    I user Twitter regularly, and will agree that during times of news-happenings, its usage picks up and it becomes a great tool.

     

    The question is, how does that equate to revenue dollars? I like the fact that Twitter advertisements are few and far between, but that's not good for the bottom line. Much like Tesla, it's important to separate the product (which I like) from the stock (which I don't).
    29 Apr 2014, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (3457) | Send Message
     
    Seems like everybody is finally getting the message, that TWTR is doomed, period. Regardless of what any diehard supporter may say, it's destined to slide down to $30, if it gets past $35 and if no support materializes tomorrow because the traders will have a field day and the wolves will join the bears to rout the bulls soundly, so call out the troops, bring out the reserves, especially whatever artillery to bear, to prop up TWTR, or else, it will be a lost cause, because May 6th is just another week away. Sound the taps.
    29 Apr 2014, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • tawse57
    , contributor
    Comments (830) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1fwsVGV

     

    Personally, I think it is going down but we could have a collapse sometime after May 6th and then some kind of bounce between then and the next quarter earning results?
    30 Apr 2014, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • 22643611
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Did Costello speak this morning?

     

    If so I guess he wasn't very reassuring to share holders.
    30 Apr 2014, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • ronjohn26
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Twitter was a well obedient boy for me yet. When it was flying from 40,50,60 and 70 , I knew my boy will come back to 30's and even 20's . He was actually giving me extra chance to fill my wallet . So far so good :) well done management keep going :) UNTIL it touch 20's :)
    30 Apr 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
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