Micron gains; DRAM price hikes reportedly on tap


Digitimes reports Micron (MU +2.7%) will likely hike DRAM prices in May "due to low inventory levels in the supply chain and insufficient supply of memory chips from Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (HXSCL)"

Samsung is said to be dealing with low yields for its new 25nm DRAM process, leaving it unable to fulfill orders from PC OEMs, and Hynix's efforts to restart production at its fire-damaged Wuxi, China fab have reportedly been slowed by the installation of new machinery.

DRAM prices surged last year as industry consolidation, restrained capex, and strong mobile DRAM demand led to a favorable supply/demand balance. David Einhorn's bull case for Micron is based in large part on a belief consolidation will produce long-term changes in the industry supply and pricing dynamics.

Yesterday, Samsung reported Q1 memory (DRAM + NAND) sales of 6.29T won ($6.08B), -3% Q/Q (mobile seasonality) but +23% Y/Y. The company added PC DRAM demand is stabilizing, and that SSD and high-density memory card sales are boosting NAND demand.

Samsung expects a "balanced" DRAM supply/demand environment in 2014, and strong PC and data center SSD demand to fuel NAND growth.

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Comments (9)
  • Arthur Fisher
    , contributor
    Comments (347) | Send Message
     
    Thanks again, Russ!!
    30 Apr 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • TrainedSkeptic
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Shoulda bought more ~$20.
    30 Apr 2014, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Guy in Ithaca
    , contributor
    Comments (428) | Send Message
     
    Holding on to my MU.
    30 Apr 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Benni
    , contributor
    Comments (1418) | Send Message
     
    I wrote the below on March 14, 2014:

     

    "Commendable follow-up to Russ, you complement one another nicely with his most recent & yours.

     

    What I'm missing in both your commentaries concerning this oligopoly of four, is some estimation of what percent of the total business Hynix presently has because I think that an important pricing component that will extend beyond 2014 is the quality of wafers they are now producing from a fire contaminated facility.

     

    Last I heard, the ChiComs running Hynix have not qualified new production via quality control reports. Has anyone been able to compare product qualification reports for MU & Hynix recently & compared them side by side? In a nutshell the problem as I see it is that Hynix may very well be putting inferior product on the market because they know there is some degree of contamination in every wafer they make that comes out of the Wuxi plant where they had the fire.

     

    As an Electrical Engineer, I once worked as a Process Engineer in a high tech facility with clean room operations. I saw the pictures of that fire of the Wuxi plant, and for you to convince me they are producing the same quality wafers before/after will be a tough job.

     

    I'm sort of guessing here that Hynix wafers are going only into "after market" products at a much different market share than they had before the fire, this simply because the market as a whole does not trust new Hynix production. What have you heard about this? If this is in fact the case, your 2014 model will be off by a substantial margin, the result being even higher earnings for MU."

     

    Comments: ? You or Russ......anybody else?

     

    Why would anyone imagine after a fire of that magnitude that you could rebuild a fabrication plant, or foundary, in 6 months? Today I bought even more MU.
    30 Apr 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • PapaJon
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Like I mention before, I beat you before and I'll beat u again. MU will go bullish in less than 60 secs. I'm long MU and it will reach $30. U not listening!
    1 May 2014, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • f5alcon
    , contributor
    Comments (697) | Send Message
     
    had to roll my covered calls forward and up to prevent selling, good day.
    1 May 2014, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • thejacadagroup
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    Well whatever is said the sun shines bright for MU!!
    2 May 2014, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • thejacadagroup
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    Well whatever is said the sun shines brightly for MICRON!!!
    2 May 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Benni
    , contributor
    Comments (1418) | Send Message
     
    Next for MU is not the 15 nanometer flash memory that Sandisk just started producing. At MU's Elpida facility the next generation MRAM is under serious development, this will be in direct competition to Crossbar's already announced RRAM, both technologies are so technologically superior to Sandisk's & Toshiba's new 15 nm production that those chips will become antiquated by the end of 2014. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FELLOW INVESTORS.

     

    Also keep an eye out for whom may try to buy out Crossbar because they will be producing RRAM the second half of this year. Crossbar is privately held, and you can bet they are looking for a buyer.........MU?
    3 May 2014, 03:28 PM Reply Like
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