Seeking Alpha

Emulex crumbles on poor guidance; QLogic/Brocade/Mellanox also off

  • On top of missing FQ3 sales estimates (while hitting EPS forecasts), Emulex (ELX -24.7%) is guiding for FQ4 revenue of $94M-$100M and EPS of $0.00-$0.05, well below a consensus of $115.7M and $0.18.
  • Storage adapter card/controller/switch archrival QLogic (QLGC -6.1%), which reports after the close, is off in sympathy, as is storage switch leader Brocade (BRCD -2.4%). Mellanox (MLNX -1.7%), which competes against Emulex in the 10G Ethernet adapter space, is also declining; its shares already tumbled last week due to a Q1 miss and soft guidance.
  • On its CC (transcript), Emulex mentioned its network connectivity product sales (71% of revenue, dominated by Fibre Channel storage offerings) fell 9% Y/Y, as Fibre Channel weakness more than offset 10G Ethernet growth. The FC issues are blamed on UNIX server weakness (sales have been in freefall for a while) and "specific issues" with an x86 server OEM (likely IBM).
  • Moreover, in remarks with clear implications for QLogic/Brocade, Emulex says it now expects a "higher rate of secular decline in the Fibre Channel business than previously anticipated." Its own FC sales are now expected to fall at a high-single to low-double digit Y/Y clip vs. prior guidance for a mid-single digit drop.
  • Also, Emulex's network visibility product sales (Endace, 6% of revenue) came in below expectations, and its legacy storage connectivity/other business (23% of revenue) is expected to fall 10%-15% in FY14 and perhaps over 30% in FY15.
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