"We think the tone is similar to [modem maker] USRobotics many years ago when an inventory build into a major production ramp polarized investors ... while the longs were talking about this new online 'internet.' We don’t want to draw a shameless parallel here with sensor proliferation and contextual awareness, but we will," writes Needham's Vernon Essi, diving into ancient tech history to defend InvenSense (INVN -6.5%) following its soft FQ1 guidance.
Pac Crest's John Vinh is also defending, albeit while cutting his PT by $5 to $22. “Despite a disappointing outlook due to weak order trends at Samsung (47% of revenues in FQ4 vs. 35% of revenues in FQ1), we remain confident that INVN is on track to ultimately penetrate Apple this year."
On the FQ4 CC (transcript), CEO Behrooz Abdi stated 6-axis MotionTracking sensors will continue accounting for over 70% of units and revenue in FQ1. He also talked up the potential of a 7-axis sensor (includes a pressure sensor) and ultra low-power sensors.
Vinh questioned Abdi about the pace of image stabilization (OIS) design wins; Abdi insisted InvenSense has seen "quite a bit of adoption," but added tier-1 OEM wins could take a year or two.
While FY15 revenue guidance was reiterated, FY15 EPS guidance has been set at $0.70-$0.75, below an $0.83 consensus. LG and Xiaomi are expected to join Samsung as 10%+ FQ1 customers.