"Single-family housing is over-believed and overrated," says Jeff Gundlach at the Ira Sohn Conference. What strength there is or was in housing, he says, came from all-cash transactions (much of it institutional money). "This is not exactly indicative of the organic growth in the market from a real buyer’s perspective.”
New homes sales: "Remarkably weak ... flat on their back just as they were at the depths of the recession."
Affordability: If it's so great, why did last year's interest rate rise hit sales in such a large way?
Wind down of the GSEs: Who knows how this plays out, but it's almost certainly going to result in higher mortgage rates.
"The kids are not alright," he says, and the exit of first-time home buyers is a secular trend thanks to high unemployment and high student debt levels. "Young people were shocked and scarred by the financial crisis ... [renting is] massively more appealing."