Pandora -0.9% after releasing April metrics


Pandora's (P) April listener hours totaled 1.7B, down fractionally from March's 1.71B (the impact of one less day) but up 30% Y/Y.

Active listeners rose to 76M from 75.3M in March and 70.1M a year ago. The company's U.S. radio listening share (affected some by seasonality) rose to 9.28% from 9.11% in March and 7.33% a year ago.

Pandora has said it'll stop providing monthly metrics (quarterly numbers will still be shared) following its May numbers (to be provided next month). Shares are off sharply from a 52-week high of $40.44 after the company provided disappointing guidance in its Q1 report.

From other sites
Comments (13)
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    Short this pig. Once again, flat fudged metrics with very little or no growth. Some how one goes up while the other goes down with no explanation from Pandora how these numbers are accounted.

     

    Active Listeners is not an individual which means they could be listening during the day more than once. How does that account growth?

     

    Total Listener hours was down month to month, and ANALysts (who also were the underwriters of the stock) view this as the most important numbers, so curious what their excuse will be to pump this garbage.

     

    And the radio market share makes no sense, if 311m population of USA and lets say everyone listening to radio, the market share compared to other metric numbers should be much higher. What Pandora is really saying is that, real individuals who listen to Pandora is around 20m at best.

     

    Another fraud company with only interest in dumping their options on retail investors. CEO has a past of managing companies with no profits just to get paid.
    6 May 2014, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • guitarvin
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Interested in your last sentence. What companies? Thx
    6 May 2014, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    "McAndrews takes over from CEO Joe Kennedy, who announced his resignation in March. McAndrews, ran Avenue A, a digital agency in Seattle in 1999, and built it into aQuantive, which was acquired by Microsoft for $6.3 billion in 2007 (In 2012, Microsoft took a $6.2 billion writedown on the acquisition after it failed to spur growth in the money-losing online division).

     

    He served as a senior vice president at Microsoft, running Microsoft’s Advertiser & Publisher Solutions group, and left in 2009 to work as an investor partner on early-stage tech companies at venture firm Madrona in Seattle. McAndrews currently serves on the boards of The New York Times Co., Grubhub Seamless and AppNexus, Pandora said."

     

    http://onforb.es/1g6T5eg

     

    He was fired from Microsoft later on and came on board to Pandora and collect more cheques while making no profits.
    6 May 2014, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2226) | Send Message
     
    Solid. The resulting sell off is more of the "reversion to the mean" of the "high fliers" that has hit all of the new tech/social names, but not justified in this case when one considers what P is truly worth. A company that has grown an already enormous share of US radio listening by yet another 30% y/y, now accounting for 9.3% of total US radio listening! This is a larger share than even SiriusXM's 8% (and declining), yet P shares are priced at 1/4 of SIRI's market cap! 9.3% of US radio equates to $2.2B revenue at FM ad rates and P has made continual (and phenomenal) progress in closing the gap between FM and P ad rates, all the while continuing to grow share! Last quarter P reported mobile revenue RPMs up +67% y/y! But of course P also sells subscriptions and sub revenues are up +192% y/y (with 73M free users that they can convert).

     

    The ability to profit through investing is highest when shares are grossly mispriced. The pessimism currently gripping any name that has seen strong share price increases (and for no other reason) is providing a huge opportunity for investing gains going forward. Monthly metrics are right in line with a growth/monetization that is fairly valued easily in the 40s.
    6 May 2014, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    I thought it was misunderstanding from 40 to 24, and now you say its the fault of other social stocks from 24 to 22? lol

     

    What your excuse going to be when this garbage falls from 22 to 15$ soon?

     

    David Einhorn pretty much shorting this garbage.
    6 May 2014, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • AngleSideSide
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    You seem to be cherry picking data to fit a narrative. That's one of the most dangerous ways to approach investing.

     

    All of the "new tech/social" momentum names that trade together have vastly different business models. Netflix makes money by selling a subscription-based service that people are accustomed to paying for. TWTR is essentially a media platform with a critical mass of users that is beginning to figure out how to monetize them. SIRI is probably maturing, but it relies more on subscription revenue and is a content creator.

     

    The fact that these hugely different companies trade together is probably more linked to the type of investor that buys and sells them all together. One that loves aggressive growth and potential -- business model fundamentals be damned. Kindof like Mel Kiper talking about "tremendous upside potential" of Blake Bortles and Johnny Football rather than the fundamentally sound offensive tackle.
    7 May 2014, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2226) | Send Message
     
    @AngleSideSide,
    Cherry picking? My numbers are straight from their quarterlies and monthly metrics, obviously some investors expected more and that's one thing (the "slowing growth" meme, whether real or perceived is no matter), but I agree with you, and that's my point, primarily the P sell off was not the result of any new information that would reveal a breakdown of their business, in fact the news has been positive both from a growth and monetization standpoint. I believe that most of the selling is, as you said, from those that are trading "momentum names" together (aggressive growth and potential), despite vastly different valuations and business models, so P's share price is being punished for association with other, actual, high flyers (as you know, I don't think P is overvalued, quite the opposite!).

     

    As for TWTR, its a great service and I have no doubt they will monetize, but to what extent I can't say, and for me, shares are a bit steep. SIRI is quite mature and producing some very tasty cash flow, but their monopoly in the high-end radio market (in particular in the car dashboard) is currently under attack by P, Spotify, GOOGL, AAPL, Clear Channel (iHeartRadio), etc and while SIRI's content is great, they can't match the value of the personalized radio proposition with their satellite distribution model, so I'm skeptical about SIRI's future pricing power as the connected car begins to provide consumers with alternative offerings. NFLX was a darling of mine a while back, bought for $64 sold at $185 only 4 months later! I had models of fair value as high as $320 and kicked myself for doubting my conviction, but I took profits because of uncertainties with net neutrality, licensing and competition from deep pocketed rivals (sound familiar?).

     

    But in the music space, every other form of delivery: Radio (including satellite), physical sales, syncronization (TV ads, film, etc) and now even iTunes/digital sales are in varying levels of decline, with the exception of streaming, which, in large part thanks to the increase in mobile broadband usage, is absolutely exploding (in the US total sub & ad-supported now $1.44B, up +39% y/y). http://read.bi/RrE2FS
    "Back in 2007, streaming music services accounted for just 3% of total music industry revenues. Today, streaming services contribute 21% of total revenues"

     

    P accounted for 7.0% of US radio listening just last summer. As large as that is, and considering that since then iTunes Radio, Beats, Spotify, and Rdio have all either launched or offered free trial periods, some with rather large ad campaigns/promotions, etc, and yet today P accounts for 9.3% of US radio listening! That's growth!
    7 May 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    dgulicks comments getting longer and longer while stock goes lower and lower.

     

    Someone in panic mode? You mad bro?

     

    Pandora might as well sell its stock as toilet paper.
    7 May 2014, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    Apple close to buying Beats for $3.2 bln http://yhoo.it/1iwHk0u

     

    Pandorka down 5% in AH

     

    Dgulick, now I need a 6 paragraph comment. lol
    8 May 2014, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2226) | Send Message
     
    @manic, No one is forcing you to read them! And since you are immune to any information that conflicts with your short position you wouldn't get anything out of it anyway (not to mention I use big words and and actual financial information!

     

    P up on the news (along with Skullcandy...). The streaming wars are heating up: Beats to AAPL, Samsung's Milk is a Slacker rebrand (though not an aquisition, definitely a very strategic partnership), this consolidation will continue. Who will buy P? MSFT, GOOG, FB and AMZN all possible suitors.
    9 May 2014, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    There is no streaming war

     

    Apple already won long time ago.

     

    Cheapest licensing deals, and now with Beats they have head of music labels part of their team. What else is there in this money losing business? NOTHING

     

    Apple only needs to sit and wait for every other competitor who doesn't have deep pockets to eventually implode on the weight of rising costs.

     

    Microsoft? You actually put that in even though CEO WAS FIRED from Microsoft on a previous write down acquisition from same guy. That will never happen.

     

    Facebook has no money left with 3 ridiculous acquisitions 0 rev 0 profits.

     

    Google is in CLOUD MUSIC business has no intention for internet radio and why would they bother, they only care for Android ecosystem and most if not all of the competitors already use its OS and platforms.

     

    Amazon is already in direct deal with music labels and it sure as hell wont be garbage radio model if it wants to incorporate into its PRIME subscription.

     

    NO ONE WILL BUY PANDORA, BECAUSE IT HAS NOTHING OF VALUE.

     

    NO ASSETS, NO EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS, NO PATENTS.

     

    It licenses music and streams online. That's it, anyone can do it.

     

    If anyone really wanted Pandora they could have bought them when it was 8$ and decent growth in users.

     

    Now almost triple the price and matured growth. Who is going to take such a risk with such high cost? NO ONE.

     

    Pandora is one of those companies that will slowly fade away.
    9 May 2014, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • PG Audience Development
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Upside for Pandora & other online audio media competitors is extraordinary because there is a mass migration in listening time from FM to online. In the same way in the 70s that listeners migrated from AM to FM, it's happening again - they are migrating from FM to online. Pandora has been crucial in this sea-change so they ain't going anywhere. Bcast radio's AQH Share has collapsed. http://bit.ly/1mw8to3 More here http://on.recode.net/1...
    29 May 2014, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2226) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the article @PG Audience Development. Good quote from the article:

     

    "Pandora has more than three times the audience of all of the thousands of radio stations owned by Clear Channel (iHeart), CBS (Radio.com), Cumulus, Entercom and the next six broadcasting companies combined. "
    29 May 2014, 04:52 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Hub
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs