Seeking Alpha

FireEye triggers security stock rout; lockup expiration looms

FireEye (FEYE -26.2%) has crashed to new post-IPO lows after offering light EPS guidance to go with a revenue beat, and has sparked a sharp selloff in IT security stocks on (another) down day for momentum plays. PANW -10.2%. IMPV -7.1%. PFPT -6.8%. QLYS -8.7%. FTNT -3.3%.

Citi is worried about a lack of "opacity" for FireEye's top-line numbers following the Mandiant deal. "Management noted 'bookings' for both FireEye and Mandiant grew >50% Y/Y. With FY13 growth of near 100% this leaves an outstanding question of whether or not business decelerated meaningfully on an organic basis."

Others are more positive. Wells Fargo (Outperform) is still confident about its forecast for 50%+ revenue growth over the next 3 years, and the "disruptive nature" of FireEye's business model (integrated threat-prevention hardware/software/services). Goldman (Neutral, but with a $58 PT) thinks organic growth is good enough, and expects a flurry of new products to provide a boost.

FBN (Outperform) is still bullish long-term, but also notes product revenue was below consensus, and is on edge over a May 21 lockup expiration that will lead 68% of shares to become eligible for sale.

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