India soars nearly 3% on election hopes


Investors are placing bets ahead of next week's election results which are expected to show a win for the opposition party's Narendra Modi and the worst-ever defeat for the ruling Congress Party amid a wave of graft scandals, rising inflation, and slowing growth.

The Sensex - up 2.9% last night - is ahead by 17% since the opposition BJP party named Modi as its PM candidate last September.

Leading last night's advance was ICICI Bank (IBN +5.2% premarket). HDFC Bank (HDB +2.9% premarket)

ETFs: EPI, INDY, SCIF, PIN, INP, INDL, INDA, INXX, SCIN, INCO, SMIN

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Comments (11)
  • banerjeesudip
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Whenever you have so-called messiah's coming in to make a difference, it is a set-up for a massive disaapointment. Just see with what happened with Obama in the US. Could not move the needle an inch. Just as fast as it has gone up, the Indian market is likely to fall once reality sets in.
    9 May 2014, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • J Mintzmyer
    , contributor
    Comments (8141) | Send Message
     
    Not always.

     

    Abe- NIKKEI.
    9 May 2014, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • financeminister
    , contributor
    Comments (1213) | Send Message
     
    baner - true. It's politics and after all these years, the people never learned like lemmings.
    9 May 2014, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • stockpicker99
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    You are comparing apples and oranges. I donot know what Modi will do. But in US, what I have seen last 6 yrs. is a sea change compared to Bush Jr. adm.
    If the Teapublicans have any +IQ in congress, the country could have been in much, much better shape.
    India is the most corrupt country, without any law and order and has worst healthcare system in the world. I have been the victim during my last trip.
    Even God cannot change the direction and Modi is not God either.
    This is MHO.
    9 May 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • financeminister
    , contributor
    Comments (1213) | Send Message
     
    yeah, I've noticed a sea change too in the last 6 years.. higher unemployment, more people on food stamps, income inequality with the wealthy getting wealthier, our adverseries treat us like a paper tiger, witch hunt against people and organizations that irritate the ruler and his minions.
    9 May 2014, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Machiavelli999
    , contributor
    Comments (831) | Send Message
     
    "Just see with what happened with Obama in the US. Could not move the needle an inch. "

     

    Except the market has done better under him than just about any other president. But yea, definitely couldn't move the needle. Instead he snapped the needle in half and threw it away.
    9 May 2014, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • brant359@yahoo.com
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    The current state of the US stock market is a result of loose Fed monetary policy, not the fact that Obama was elected. The only thing Obama has "snapped" is the World's confidence in the US as a superpower.
    9 May 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • User 353732
    , contributor
    Comments (5158) | Send Message
     
    Corruption at every level of government; hostility to foreign capital truly shoddy infrastructure and a massive shortage of electricity are 4 of the biggest constraints on growth in India.
    If the new government can make even a small positive difference in these areas, risk capital will be substantially encouraged and India's growth can accelerate to the high single digits. India has entrepreneurs and vast unmet domestic needs for basic consumer goods and services: what it lacks is fundamental commercial integrity.
    9 May 2014, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • financeminister
    , contributor
    Comments (1213) | Send Message
     
    It won't. It's been the same since forever. It's like putting lipstick on a pig. Glad I got the chance at the prime of my youth at 26 to escape to a close-to-freer-market-... system and didn't waste away over there kissing the feet of local government officiers while they sit behind a screen playing solitair and lines of people wait to pay their taxes and to add insult to injury, they even demand a bribe to speed up things. Nothing has changed. These go down to every level of the system. They claim "India shining" and hype it up for the lemmings but the fact is, 600 million people still live below poverty line apart from a host of other problems like the ones you mentioned. If you are a honest, hardworking person with dreams and amibtions, you get treated like a surf and have to endure extortion to get the smallest thing done. Every able bodied person ESCAPES to greener pastures the moment a chance is given and they manage to do well wherever they are inspite of the alien circumstances in the new countries of their adoption.

     

    People vote with their feet.
    9 May 2014, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • pak man
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    600 million below poverty level and it just moved ahead of japan as the third largest economy. Sensex is above pre recession levels. Is Shanghai index or the Brazilian bovespa above pre recession levels or even close to it? There are more opportunities in chaos. Yes India is like what the USA was in the 50s. But it is a democracy which is a self correcting form of a govt. it already has moved up to third largest. If modi gets it right, can u only imagine what heights India could reach? It is this hope that the smart investors are betting on.
    12 May 2014, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • financeminister
    , contributor
    Comments (1213) | Send Message
     
    I wish I could be as optimisitic as you but I've seen this script many times. One man, no matter how good he is, cannot fix everything unless root problems are tackled - secretarian, communal and regional disrespect, corruption at every level and central planning. India is a democracy but everyone knows that those with brute force calls the shots.

     

    India is the largest economy only because of its 1.2 billion population. That is a very misleading figure to be proud of considering that 600 million people live below the poverty line. The per capita income is one of the lowest unlike Japan which has a high per capita income.

     

    Hence even if 40% of the 1.2 billion market is middle and upper class, that chunk is still as big as the US market. That is the only reason multinationals and investors are interested in reaching out to this market inspite of its fundamental issues. Will this investment cause upward economic mobility? ofcourse. That is why there is hope. But government needs to address this growth by opening up the infrastructure, energy and regional and social demands that come with such growth hence this will lead to a backlash. They want to control 1.2 billion people through central planning.
    12 May 2014, 10:36 AM Reply Like
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