Seeking Alpha

Sucker rally in Brazil?

  • Brazil's on the move higher again, up 1.6% on the session, helped by release of a central bank survey showing economists cutting their inflation forecast 11 basis points to 6.39% while hiking their GDP growth estimates six bps to an average 1.69%. The central bank has hiked rates for nine straight meetings, bringing the benchmark Selic rate to 11%, and the hope is May will see a pause in the cycle.
  • Also at work in the rally are hopes President Rousseff may not gain reelection in the fall, but JPMorgan isn't so sure. "We believe May will show stability in the polls ... the President will have her own TV appearances, which together with the announcements on higher social spending on Labor Day, should stabilize her ratings, while the opposition will have limited room to make the news cycle."
  • EWZ is up about 25% since mid-March.
  • Morgan Stanley continues to fight the tape, remaining underweight the country amid what it expects will be slowing growth, continued upward pressure on rates, and more weakness in the real. The team notes it's not seeing the quick narrowing in the current account deficit associated with big rallies in Indonesia and India.
  • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRZU, BRAZ, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
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Comments (1)
  • awmanzel
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    the rally is pretending like transitions after strong populist regimes is something tranquil and with ease.
    15 May 2014, 12:55 PM Reply Like
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