Seeking Alpha

Study: Facebook and Twitter usage slips, with Instagram gaining

  • Active usage has been slipping for Facebook (FB) and many other popular social networks, GlobalWebIndex reports in a new study -- though Facebook is still the worldwide king.
  • Active usage of YouTube (GOOG, GOOGL) dropped 8% since Q3 2013, according to the report, with Facebook slipping 6%. Other usage decliners: LinkedIn (LNKD) fell 3%; Twitter's (TWTR) usage dropped 3%, and Google+ usage fell 1%.
  • Going the other direction were a few robust gainers: Instagram counters its parent with a 25% growth in usage; Tumblr usage up 22%, and Pinterest usage up 7%.
Comments (24)
  • MEKhoury
    , contributor
    Comments (190) | Send Message
     
    No metrics on Snapchat? Just curious
    13 May, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • andypochta1
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    And no metrics on WhatsApp.
    Is there anything to show for $19 Billion?
    13 May, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • monfrere
    , contributor
    Comments (580) | Send Message
     
    You mean there isnt infinite capacity? Everyone can't grow usage 100% per year forever? That pretty much amounts to blasphemy around here.
    13 May, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • beautidoc
    , contributor
    Comments (109) | Send Message
     
    Of course let's just ignore the most telling statistic in the report, Momph and the rest of you bears....Instagram ACTIVE USAGE UP 25%. Facebook is the greatest form of mass media communication in the history of man...like it or not. Be well.

     

    Best,

     

    Doc
    13 May, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • littup
    , contributor
    Comments (309) | Send Message
     
    true!
    13 May, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mymomsays
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    Doc the company has spent $20 billion on assets that have not been monetized. A drinking fountain has lots of users and yet produces no cash flow.

     

    I would expect over the next 6 months you will begin to see the weakness in the Facebook management bench as they try to create real returns from the flurry of bad decision they made over the last year.

     

    I have been their, and I see the holes.

     

    Still short since December 2013. Stock and put options have returned me over 135% of my investment capital...so far.
    13 May, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • King Rat
    , contributor
    Comments (557) | Send Message
     
    Well put, Mymomsays.
    14 May, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • drpersky@drpersky.com
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    $6 billion in cash My. We can agree to disagree. Comparing our percentage capital gains at this point is insignificant as the main point is will you make money going short or long FB over the next few years. That being said, I'm happy with my gains thus far staying long with stock and call options which have doubled your gains without many trades. You either see Facebook's potential (me) or you don't (you). Good luck, be well.

     

    Best,

     

    Doc
    14 May, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    What else is new?? Even the most ignorant can tell that usage can't be growing all the time, unless something new comes up, which hasn't.
    13 May, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • rsbduff@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (438) | Send Message
     
    Usage is critical!
    So far.... all these social media sights have had a honeymoon, for a not so long time, it makes you wonder....when the music (not stops) but, slows down.

     

    Social sights are like chain letters....great numbers....until you run out of possible add-ons. That doesn't mean that they can't make money on the usage they have, but investors should be ready to accept falling numbers (in usage) along with improved bottom lines.

     

    Diversify.....buy a drug company. Most people on Facebook are on something....anyway. (Boy am I going to hear about that joke! Hopefully not as much as Clippers owner.)

     

    My insight is worth what I charge for it.
    RSBDuff
    13 May, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • berniespear
    , contributor
    Comments (231) | Send Message
     
    tumblr
    13 May, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • DanoX
    , contributor
    Comments (2577) | Send Message
     
    Tumblr is surreal, but you still can't make money out of it.
    13 May, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • berniespear
    , contributor
    Comments (231) | Send Message
     
    agree. i was just correcting the author's spelling
    13 May, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Emmanuel Nogueira
    , contributor
    Comments (237) | Send Message
     
    Where is the report? The link takes you to a website that asks for a subscription. Until I see that report I'm going to assume its B.S.
    13 May, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • xilef
    , contributor
    Comments (440) | Send Message
     
    GlobalWebIndex? These guys are not from Princeton are they? I would like to see the details of this "global" study. Did they include South America and India - the fastest growing user market for FB that overshadows the rest of the world growth totals. Also, the numbers were based on the 1st quarter (old news) and it didn't seem to effect the amazing rev growth in any way. I'm not even mentioning Instagram that is yet to be monetized.
    13 May, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Babcockk11
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    You are just a hater, profits from advertising has been increasing annually. Thanks for the un-information. I'll keep my 1000 shares, so no thanks,I'm not buying what you are trying to sell.
    13 May, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • 22643611
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    The bottom line is in the grand scheme of things social media even the WWW itself is in its infancy and new sites will keep popping up some successful formats and others not so.
    People should keep in mind that in the 1990's there was Netscape and AOL and LYCOS, as well as others.
    The new fangled can be old fangled lickity split.

     

    My one daughter (19) went from FB to TMBLR to instagram with a small dose of TWTR mixed in.

     

    My other daughter went from FB to pintrest (still uses) to yelp (still uses) to instagram and snapchat but never used TWTR.

     

    Times they be a changin - just remember that when you invest in social media
    13 May, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • King Rat
    , contributor
    Comments (557) | Send Message
     
    Is a 6 month period really a trend? I can hope so.

     

    I dabble in social media but I don't follow my real life best friends on social media. I have real life for that. The fatal flaw of investing in social media is that the valuations are ever expensive while the technology is by definition destructive. Investors have to pay a premium of earnings projected in 5 years yet the existing products and brands will likely be out of favor in 5 years.
    The value proposition of investment in social media past IPO stage is generally pretty weak.

     

    Note the use of the term "investing", not "trading".
    14 May, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • gibmichdiekirsche
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    As an investor I care about revenue growth of FB, which does not necessarily correlate to the usage growth. It correlates to the data quality in facebook, not the amount of data.

     

    All FB needs to do is persuade the existing users to always keep their profiles and their current interests and "likes" up-to-date, so FB can sell that information to 3rd party sites and let them place ads and pay fees to FB ....
    Maybe long term the facebook/instagram/wha... sites could even run without displaying any ads themselves,
    Looks like a solid business to me.
    14 May, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • 6269751
    , contributor
    Comments (573) | Send Message
     
    The grain of salt here is that all the numbers are expressed in percentages. The 6% decline cited for Facebook is probably more than the total number of Google+ users. If what passes for social intercourse in the 21st century were really significantly declining, it would be an improvement. I haven't seen any signs of significant changes.
    14 May, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • papaduckduck1
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Zuckerman will soon be the richest man in the world!!!
    14 May, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Durwood Dugger
    , contributor
    Comments (203) | Send Message
     
    Consider that there are a limited number of viable income models for any social media and that all the easy ones have been exploited - meaning new models will be considerably more expensive to develop and more difficult to profit from.

     

    Consider that all social media concepts have a bell-shaped user growth curves and that all user social media populations have finite total potentials, but all potentials are dividable by competition. The outcome of most if not all social media companies is relatively predictable, if not the exact time line due to the number of side stream variables affecting that time line.

     

    Bottom line, investment in social media is extremely timing sensitive. Invest too early and you risk development stagnation and or failure due to overshadowing competition of new ideas by other companies. Invest too late and you risk hitting the down slope of finite user growth - and a failure of the business model to develop new concepts to reinvigorate user growth - i.e. LNKD, FB and Twitter.
    14 May, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • MasterWoo
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    ITS a FAD: Sell Sell. I bought my at $22 sold at $55. With call options, got to say FB did well for me. But I sold for a reason. They can't keep growing at the rate they have been and it is setting in now.

     

    I own 0 shares, and I am hesitant to short it since it pulled back a bit already.

     

    Guy commenting on his daughters transitions across different social media platforms was insightful. Thx.

     

    If FB learns to properly make money I might get in it again, for now, I see them going the way of MySpace and it is not looking good as it did before.

     

    WhatsApp seems like an expensive blunder. The PE on the stock is retarded.

     

    -Castles in the sky are great just like tulips.
    15 May, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • 6269751
    , contributor
    Comments (573) | Send Message
     
    I have an unrealized gain of 38.54% on my FB investment. As for when to sell, I will leave that to my estate. Woo is calling it a fad: Facebook has like 75% of the people worldwide (not to mention business storefronts) that have internet access outside of China. That's one heck of a fad. If you wait long enough, anything can be declared a fad. The automobile will probably only be around for another century or so.
    15 May, 03:05 PM Reply Like
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