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Yields and small caps slump as S&P 500 carves out new records

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Comments (16)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10314) | Send Message
     
    What are 2 year swap spreads telling you?
    14 May 2014, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • MEKhoury
    , contributor
    Comments (291) | Send Message
     
    ...what are they telling you? Honestly just curious
    14 May 2014, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • 2thlesswithta2s
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Where can one get daily historical data on treasury yields of all types?
    14 May 2014, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • JasonC
    , contributor
    Comments (4052) | Send Message
     
    2thless - try the Fred II database -

     

    http://bit.ly/MP554f

     

    Pick the series you need. Treasury constant maturity rate for the different maturities is probably the closest to your specific ask.
    14 May 2014, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Captain Pike
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    Forget rates, they aren't going anywhere and won't be for a long time. All the newbs and maroons who kept talking about them all last year and still now just show their ignorance and inexperience.
    14 May 2014, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • th3decider
    , contributor
    Comments (405) | Send Message
     
    You do realize that everyone and their mom said rates weren't going anywhere early to mid last year when things were 1%'ish and then they basically doubled.
    14 May 2014, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • JasonC
    , contributor
    Comments (4052) | Send Message
     
    Actually, everyone and their mom have been screaming that rates must rise to 6-7% on the 10 year since the year 2000 or so --- without taking a breath. And even betting that way. While also betting on galloping inflation and commodity prices if rates didn't rise to that level. Wrong on every point, of course.
    14 May 2014, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • th3decider
    , contributor
    Comments (405) | Send Message
     
    I love how confidently wrong you are. In 2000 oil was $27 a barrel (over $100 today), silver was around 5 bucks an oz (around $20 today ) and copper was about $0.75 a pound (a little over $3 bucks today).

     

    You don't consider basic commodity prices quadrupling in 14 years high?

     

    Based on your strong arguments supported by nothing, I'll assume you also dont realize that a quadrupling of prices in 14 years equals out to be about a 21% on average year over year increase. 21% inflation in commodity prices on average year or year, for FOURTEEN years is not a lot by your standards? Seriously, look around man and stop watching MSNBC.
    14 May 2014, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • JasonC
    , contributor
    Comments (4052) | Send Message
     
    We got a great bubble in house prices from people with that brainstorm too. How'd that work out for you?

     

    Also, your math is challenged. 4 times in 14 years is a 10.41% rate.

     

    1.1041^14 = 4.00053
    14 May 2014, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Captain Pike
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    To be more specific, rates aren't going back to what have become historical norms from before the crash. They can fluctuate like they did in 2012

     

    http://1.usa.gov/M8MPnc

     

    becuase we are in a new normal of ample energy and ample productivity which will keep inflation low and demand in check. Slow steady growth, no recession, no boom.
    14 May 2014, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Captain Pike
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't cherry pick oil's price to indicate anything other than inflation/recession tipping points/ It was $108 in 1980

     

    http://bit.ly/1osoWhn
    14 May 2014, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • jstratt
    , contributor
    Comments (2815) | Send Message
     
    I will take a stab at what this means.

     

    1) 10 year Treas reveals weakness in world economy

     

    2) Even US growth could get revised away completely

     

    3) a shortage of 10 yr treas securities avail

     

    4) Pensions after huge gains wanting less risk

     

    5) Support for US housing market
    14 May 2014, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (3187) | Send Message
     
    There is no conundrum here. Its simple:
    - US enters recession this year
    - stock markets go down 30-50%

     

    Thats what the bond market believes.
    14 May 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (3187) | Send Message
     
    of course, the Fed will blow a lot of smoke to obfuscate what is going on - so only the savvy "players" will be able to position themselves correctly. As for the rest - no body knows and nobody cares. After the crash, the Fed will simply blame it on one of the following; a)the weather, b) geopolitical events c) congress.
    14 May 2014, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Brad Kenagy
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    The Fed has been masking the ineptitude of fiscal policy. The Fed has been in the driver seat for the recovery, but now with the ending of QE, all the we will be left with is an economy built on fiscal policy, and how do you think that will turn out, with the American economy being reliant on fiscal policy [controlled by congress] with no QE help from the Fed when tapering ends.Ouch!
    14 May 2014, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Captain Pike
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    True Brad, but it is not ending cold turkey and hopefully there will be a seasoned, serious republican in the WH in a few years to bring some reality back to the budget.
    15 May 2014, 07:50 AM Reply Like
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