Seeking Alpha

Tepper nervous about markets

  • "I'm not saying go short, I'm just saying don't be too fricking long right now," David Tepper tells hedge fund colleagues at SkyBridge Capital's SALT conference in Vegas.
  • Among his concerns are lame growth in the U.S. and an ECB which has sat on its hands too long as deflation takes over in Europe. "The ECB - they better ease in June ... I don't know how far behind the curve, but I think they're really, really far behind the curve."
  • "There's times to make money and there's times not to lose money. This is probably (a time when) you're supposed to think about preserving some of your money ... I think it's nervous time."
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Comments (35)
  • Yorick
    , contributor
    Comments (525) | Send Message
     
    Funny, I just put my retirement money into bonds today...new highs in the markets at a time when earnings are lowest and getting weaker...too many divergences that need to be reconciled on almost every chart. Dairy Queen near me always seemed busy and had been there for decades didn't reopen this summer....more data points.
    15 May, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • mjc99
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Alas Yorick,

     

    A Dairy Queen near me (in Massachusetts) isn't reopening this summer either. My kids will be disappointed.
    15 May, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3526) | Send Message
     
    Bonds? Hopefully you need your retirement money soon, because the long-term outlook for bonds in a few decades is not so good.
    15 May, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3807) | Send Message
     
    Dairy Queens near me never close. :)
    15 May, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • fxdudeinmia
    , contributor
    Comments (507) | Send Message
     
    The outlook for my closed end muni funds, and muni bonds is awesome. Thrilled to have 6%+ yields in closed end munis selling at 9% discounts to net asset value in this environment. VKQ,MUS, MUE etc
    15 May, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    Nervous is good; it's euphorically positive that's bad.
    15 May, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • rob13546
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Agreed
    15 May, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mark T. Phillips
    , contributor
    Comments (447) | Send Message
     
    Funny because at the end of last year he said he was worried about his hedge fund buddies who "weren't long enough."
    15 May, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • abdullah999
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    Everyone talks their book. Focus on the productivity of underlying assets when purchasing stocks rather than their prospective price movements and everything should be fine. I think Buffett defines the former as investing and the latter as speculating.
    15 May, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • fxdudeinmia
    , contributor
    Comments (507) | Send Message
     
    5 months later in the stock market is a long time. I think David Tepper has earned the right to be fluid in his thinking with the passage of time.
    15 May, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • tjn6175
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Listen to the markets, not the pundits. Looks like the markets are in control of interest rates too, obtw. Maybe the fed should now dump its bonds while they're up. That might cause some more fireworks. I thought todays data was a net positive. Correct now, set up a low base for late fall rally?
    15 May, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • ceristeare
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    Take the summer off, fall is tech season and it's gonna be huge
    15 May, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • psychological-dividends
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I agree, euphoria is bad. Cautioned rallying is good.
    15 May, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    Nobody know the future. Anything can happen. The only mistake is thinking in very small ranges - like the markets may go up or down 10% . Its worth looking at long term charts going back 30 +years. Things can move a lot - everyone needs to have a plan to deal with (and avoid) a 30 to 50% decline of their favorite asset.
    15 May, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    RS:

     

    If you believe anything can happen, just spontaneously and for no reason, then, you should not be near markets.
    15 May, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    Tack - In the summer of 2008, how many expected the the 50% crash? That qualifies as 'anything can happen". But you are right, I view any position I have in the markets as exposed to vast risk. I am in cash/ST Treasuries perhaps 80% of the time ( Iam talking over the past 15 years). I dont like being "near markets" - but do it 20% of the time with a limited portion of capital and stay very nervous until Iam out.
    15 May, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    i would add that there is always a "reason" - only problem is it will only be blindingly obvious after the market has done its thing.
    15 May, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    Ofcourse , I am only investing my own money, have no other source of income ( no management fees!) and have my lifestyle at risk.
    I fully agree that for folks who get management fees managing other people's money, they really dont need to worry their pretty lil heads about tail risks. 2008 taught these folks a lesson - Its OK if you blow up - your clients will reset high water marks and /or you can just close the fund , take a 3 month vacation and start a new fund. That is why the market behaves the way it does - its mostly people and machines with no pain sensors!
    15 May, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    People like Tepper can lose 50% of their entire net worth and not bat an eyelash. It would make no difference to how they live or what they can do - may only mean less left over for charities and posterity.
    people who are not in that kind of position - do need to worry about huge losses.
    15 May, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Disasterdude
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” - W. Buffet
    Seems like an appropriate quote at this juncture.
    15 May, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3526) | Send Message
     
    Yup.... buying the dips since 2009.
    15 May, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • fxdudeinmia
    , contributor
    Comments (507) | Send Message
     
    When the DJIA and SPY are just 2% off their highs, I don't think this is a time when fear is all that great. Not a time to be greedy, yet.
    15 May, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Bigeye13
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Should be some real value for sale soon.
    15 May, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • psychological-dividends
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I'm supposed to believe this because some hedge fund person thinks so?

     

    I'll stick to my own facts. thanks
    15 May, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • SectorAnalyst
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    In this type of market, I'm a buyer.
    15 May, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • 1GreatCFA
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    "I'm not saying go short, I'm just saying don't be too fricking long right now," David Tepper. Translation: Christ...I really have no clue which way the market is going to go...but I made billions talking my book a few quarters ago so better just stick to that. Oh wow a cheese danish!!!
    15 May, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • fxdudeinmia
    , contributor
    Comments (507) | Send Message
     
    "I'm not saying go short, I'm just saying don't be too fricking long right now," David Tepper. Translation: Christ...I really have no clue which way the market is going to go...but I made billions talking my book a few quarters ago so better just stick to that. Oh wow a cheese danish!!!

     

    You might want to check out David Tepper's track record before dismissing him as just another talking head talking his book.
    15 May, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Walker
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Buying the dip has been the correct move for the last two to three years. Sure maybe this is start of a big, bad decline but why anticipate the worst ?

     

    I added today to my energy and financial service positions.
    15 May, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Transcripts&10-K's
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    "The ECB - they better ease in June..."

     

    Last week, Draghi said the governing council “is comfortable with acting next time.”

     

    Mr. Tepper will get his wish...
    15 May, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • jump2jim
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    EUO
    15 May, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • MisterJ
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    "Buy when Tepper gets nervous" - time again!
    15 May, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • sunwindgeo
    , contributor
    Comments (329) | Send Message
     
    Nauseating the way media pays so much attention to a hedge fund manager. He makes money by getting markets to move either way. Isn't that enough for the media to recognize that they shouldn't help him to become "the guy" to pay attention to?

     

    PBS this eve., their market show which is partially created by The Street, made it sound like the old ad, when "tepper" talks people listen.. what a bunch of garbage. They're creating a monster.
    15 May, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • optionsexpert
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    When you're #1 people generally tend to think you know what you're talking about. Tepper has been successful for two decades.
    16 May, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • christophe
    , contributor
    Comments (211) | Send Message
     
    I was very bullish till yesterday. When I heard Tepper was also getting nervous I decided today to raise cash about 15%. I will continue to raise cash and rotate equities in the coming weeks. Especially if the following items continue:

     

    - the fed narrative does not match Q1 GDP at .1%
    - the fed narrative about the recovery "around the corner" seems to be getting old. If we do not see a real recovery soon, their entire credibility might come into question
    - the direction and level of the 10y bond yield is alarming and in direct contradiction to the feds message last May.
    - a "regular" correction could be greatly overdone as we have not had a very serious correction since the crash of 2008. A repeat of the 2008 sell off is possible when like now we start to feel the fed is loosing authority/credibility and influence.
    - stocks seem to have limited up movement. Profits are already at record levels. To grow will require new spending. If company engage in growth their initial results might look bad (could take a few quarters to generate true growth) at exactly the wrong time. This could create a 2008 style sell off.

     

    But just like Tepper said, I am still long the market. Just not friggin long any more...
    15 May, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • sunwindgeo
    , contributor
    Comments (329) | Send Message
     
    See how that works then? Those same media 'experts' get us pumped to buy, then to sell, and THAT is how hedge funder Tepper and many others like him got so rich. These are in other words self fulfilling prophesies. Its easy to seem wise when you also get to rally people to your cause of selling or buying on cue. That's what regulators just told us they were looking at. The way media is used by high speed traders and short sellers. Trouble is, they all latch on at once to the hype one way or another, then pretend that it was some market indicator that prompted it. Just watching all these years it is very obvious that this is how US markets work/fail.
    16 May, 08:13 AM Reply Like
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