Seeking Alpha

Multi-family activity boosts housing starts rebound

  • Overall housing starts of 1.072M were 13.2% higher than March's revised level of 947K and 26.4% above the one year ago level. Single-family starts of 649K edged up from March's level of 644K. Multi-family starts of 413K accounted for 39% of all starts - the highest level in about 40 years.
  • Overall building permits of 1.08M grew 8% from March and were 3.8% higher than a year ago. Single-family permits of 602K were essentially unchanged from March's 600K. Multi-family permits were 453K.
  • Full report
  • The 10-year Treasury yield briefly jumped a couple of basis points on the print, but is back to unchanged on the session at 2.50%.
  • ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB
  • Previously: Housing Starts
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Comments (5)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10534) | Send Message
     
    Housing Starts to Nonfarm Payrolls ratio is now .78%...this ratio averaged 1.17%
    in the 1990's....there is much more room to run even accounting for slow wage growth....
    16 May 2014, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10534) | Send Message
     
    I do love the doom spin on these numbers....
    16 May 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • 1GreatCFA
    , contributor
    Comments (1170) | Send Message
     
    Least they weren't negative? Someone's cash register is ringing again. Probably won't do much today...calling for 20-30 point drop but least it will stabilize yesterday's selloff.
    16 May 2014, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3257) | Send Message
     
    Housing starts = permit and a shovel in the ground. With the exception of NVR and Toll bros. builders have been averaging 25 to 30% cancelations for last several yrs. Those show up in the earnings reports
    16 May 2014, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11782) | Send Message
     
    Yes housing starts don't mean completions or sales. What it does mean is bank loans to keep the construction industry afloat enough to pay other bank loans issued to help pay other bank loans which were issued to help pay other bank loans... etc.

     

    The end of the housing crisis will come when the banks admit to the loss and cut off the endless supply of overbuilding they are financing in a home real estate market glut. In the meantime, they are perfectly happy foreclosing on old homes in a downturn so they can issue more loans for construction companies to build even more homes.

     

    Japanese banks have been doing this for 2 decades and is one of the main causes for the fact their economy hasn't gone anywhere (compounded by QE and the fact construction companies got even the government to give them loans and jobs to try to build empty cities).
    17 May 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
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