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Ralph Acampora has a "sick feeling"

Comments (6)
  • Uncle Pie
    , contributor
    Comments (2665) | Send Message
    probably just something he ate.
    16 May, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • jj1937
    , contributor
    Comments (602) | Send Message
    Wall Street got drunk again.
    2 Jul, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • slow$$
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
    You mean "Ralph Icanmakeyoupoorer" ? Ha. I remember his perma-bull book in 2000.
    16 May, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • heywally
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
    Could this be right? Yes.


    Is it predictive? No.


    Does it have value? No.


    From Sept. 2013

    16 May, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • King Rat
    , contributor
    Comments (564) | Send Message
    heywally thank you.
    The first comment by whidbey there was brilliant.


    There's a permabear website that I stopped bothering with (too much mud to make reaching the gems profitable) that weekly has a comparison to any random current trend and a 20% decline at some point in history.


    A claim of a major decline as in '94 (oh no!) would suit me fine.
    Look at drops in '87, '90, and '94. Make a hypothetical investment at the market top and look at 5 and 10 year returns. Everything to the nearest 10%.
    '87, investing Friday before "Black Monday".
    5 year return +30%. 10 year, +200%
    '90 (20%+ correction)
    5 year return +60%. 10 year return, +300%
    5 year return +180%. 10 year return, +180%.
    Market top March, 2000
    5 year return + (Dow+10%,S&P -10%), 10 year, Dow+20%,S&P 0%


    On a 30 year horizon Even October 1st, 1929 looks cheap. Cheers and happy dividends.
    16 May, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (3196) | Send Message
    'Following the washout into October, though, Acampora sees a "very, very strong Q4."' Why? The economy could be in complete shambles by then. Russia will have installed its chosen puppet in Kiev once again. China's property market could implode in that time frame. Inflation could be on the rise and real interest rates in negative territory due to reluctance of the Fed to reverse course and beat down inflation with higher rates. If they do raise rates, the US government will be in a budgetary crisis due to having to devote more of the federal budget to paying interest.


    Bond markets are currently very confused. They know something is amiss, but most people don't know what is really going on. The Fed is continuing to buy long bonds aggressively while selling short bonds in order to be able to say they are tapering.


    Last December banks started lending more money to businesses. Lo and behold, inflation, which had been completely quiescent during this entire post-recession period suddenly got reignited and now we are seeing the first numbers being reported in the media. I don't see any reason to be optimistic that the increased bank lending to businesses will result in strong economic growth by Q4. Most of those businesses, like Apple (AAPL), used their loans to reward shareholders with stock buybacks instead of building stronger businesses.
    16 May, 01:04 PM Reply Like
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