Seeking Alpha

Gilead lower on Sovaldi scripts data, pricing worries

  • Total Sovaldi (GILD -1.7%) prescriptions for the week ending May 16 amounted to 8,091 (-10.6% from the prior week), according to IMS data. New prescriptions fell 11.5% to 3,445.
  • The numbers come amid an insurer backlash to Sovaldi's price tag ($84K for a 12-week course). In a blog post, insurer AHIP accuses Gilead of pricing Sovaldi "at an astronomical level that is not sustainable for consumers, innovation, or society."
  • Wells Fargo (Outperform) isn't too worried about the IMS data. Though expecting Sovaldi demand to slow a bit as the year progresses, it still thinks the drug's 2014 U.S. sales could approach $9B.
Comments (80)
  • t time
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    I think GILD should respond by raising the price to 95,000. That'll learn em.
    23 May, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • delprice
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    It's still cheap at double the discounted launch offering....
    23 May, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • chriscar
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Cost of liver transplant?
    23 May, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Cora Schlesinger
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    And outpatient treatment and resources, and numerous lengthy hospitalizations for end stage liver disease (one week in hospital is >>84K, and patients difficult to discharge). Don't know if insurers are playing hot potato w/ these patients, but high risk premiums can be up to $1500/mo/ and they may be hoping they switch to other insurer/Medicaid.
    Just saw a 3 page ad for Solvadi in People.
    27 May, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • t time
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    If we want first in class cures, and from companies that must invest billions AND provide growth to keep shareholders happy - then this is what the price has to be. By the way, I recently learned that Solvaldi is not even in the top 10 most expensive drugs - yet offers one of the most revolutionary cures... For those that think the price is too high - you tell us how it works. How do you invest billions for high risk projects (success rate of around 5% a compound makes it to market) and please shareholders at the same time by delivering growth? The market dictates these high prices, not those who are generating the cures to serious and life threatening diseases. The insurance companies are being short-sighted. I'd prefer you just say "thank you"...
    23 May, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Bret Jensen
    , contributor
    Comments (10063) | Send Message
     
    Not to mention we are subsidizing the rest of the world. Egypt, home of largest Hep C population, will get this for pennies on the dollar......if they don't, they will just copy in and this administration will not enforce intellectual law.......
    23 May, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • texasredraider
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    You couldn't be more correct!! Of all the boards I follow related to my portfolio stocks, this is by far the most informed, intellectual, and logical in terms of posters and their comments.
    23 May, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • alan ljl
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    Texas...,
    I totally agree with you. It's also a proven fact that University studies confirmed that Seeking Alpha participants categorically outperform the Analyst community consistently. Ref.: WSJ article about (2) months ago.
    23 May, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    What laws does the U.S. have that control any other country, especially China? Sueing there is virtually an impossibility. patent enforcement is a farce.
    U.S. has NO control over distribution within China of the drugs made there.
    I would not manufacture any drugs in China. You cannot trust the source.
    We underfund the FDA. Japan inspects every drug from the manufacturing plant to the delivery to the point of use. They test nearly every batch 3 to four times in between for quality and content.
    We do less than 5%, at any point.
    Counterfiet drugs is a $100 billion per year business. OR MORE. WE JUST DO NOT KNOW, we do not check.
    30 May, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Bryan Boulden
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    This is precisely the sort of "noise" currently depressing $GILD price.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    23 May, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Rasna
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    Bryan,

     

    I agree, and the $GILD price will continue to meander along until the get aggressive about defending Solvaldi. It seems like management didn't have a clue as to whether there would be backlash about it's pricing strategy for the drug. What were they thinking?

     

    Why didn't they have a PR/Marketing campaign on the shelf supported by acknowledged experts in the field talking about the TOTAL benefits of the drug and costs relative to existing regimens that are no nearly as effective as Solvaldi and the cumulative cost is much higher because the end result is a liver transport and YEARS of continued treatment.

     

    To me this is a real head scratcher and the silence from Gilead is only serving to keep the price depressed. Until Gilead gets aggressive about defending the drug, the stock price will continue to get smacked down by every story that comes along whining about the pricing.

     

    Amazing
    23 May, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • balieberman
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    I pointed this out in an email to GILD's investor relations department. I explained how a public campaign by BP helped generate public sympathy and understanding re BP's fight with plaintiff's attorneys following the dubious implementation of BP's oil spill compensation agreement. I have not received a reply from GILD.
    23 May, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Cora Schlesinger
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    Agree. GILD is large enough to have PR. Current combination treatments are much higher than 84K/yr, are less effective, and have worse side effect profiles.
    28 May, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • 13302632
    , contributor
    Comments (276) | Send Message
     
    Also, seeming lost in the pricing debate is the cost of drugs when hospitals provide them. They usually charge a multiple of the wholesale price. Now, that is true price gouging. I had a short hospital stay (3 days due) and was billed 100K+. They charged me >3 times the going rate for a cat scan (if I'd walked out of the hospital and across the street to get it on an out patient basis). They charged me $10/pill for pills that you can get at any local pharmacy for pennies.

     

    Compared to the other places the health care system overcharges, the GILD sovaldi price is an incredible bargain (a CURE! that reduces chronic care costs). The hyperbole of the insurance companies that (shocker) are attempting to pressure downward prices on drugs so they can increase their own margins is to be expected, but people should consider the source and the agenda.
    23 May, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Rasna
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    I am shocked, SHOCKED!! that the health insurers are at a disadvantage regarding the pricing and complain about being gouged. I'm glad that they are defending my interests for affordable health care <snarc off>.
    23 May, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    IMO, It is going to be a long time before GILD runs out of patients and payees that are more than willing to pay for a cure. This stuff kills people. A LOT OF PEOPLE.
    A patient that develops one of the peripheral diseases is much more expensive to treat. All about choices.
    And the only providers that cannot negotiate the price, Medicaid and Medicare, the rest negotiate, you just may not know what they pay. only what they charge the patient.
    23 May, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Cora Schlesinger
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    But they do ratchet down allowable charge hospital payments significantly.
    28 May, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Cora Schlesinger
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    Unlike Medicare/Medicaid, insurers can negotiate their own prices, which are un-regulatable. They can make a large profit, if you use THEIR pharmacy benefits manager. If you've checked, the prices are not much different from retail, and sometimes even more. Conflict of interest. And you have to buy/pay for 3 months at a time.
    29 May, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Matt-Man
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Are these IMS numbers worldwide or just for US market?
    23 May, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • DoctoRx
    , contributor
    Comments (1393) | Send Message
     
    I believe they are US numbers only.

     

    I expect a slowdown in Sovaldi scripts in the US. More and more, it will make medical sense to wait for the sofosbuvir (Sovaldi) - ledipasvir combo, which has a PDUFA deadline in October. Likely it will also make financial sense, as Gilead has indicated that the combo will be priced at a discount to Sovaldi + Olysio.
    23 May, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    There are tens of thousands that do not have the advantage of time.
    Do you all believe that the insurance companies charge the patient the price they pay for scripts?
    23 May, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • alf78
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Gild is one of the best R&D company in USA
    23 May, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • farstud
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    not really. but they have done a *fantastic* job of picking up drugs/small companies with great R/D.
    23 May, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Cleatus in Cleveland
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    Bret, the tiered-pricing model used by many firms has become questionable given the dramatic change to healthcare delivery in the US. America is being offered lower quality healthcare and generic drugs to "bend" the cost curve. IMHO our government is no longer interested in developing cures like Sovaldi. Many officials believe that "sometime we just need to give them a pain pill." As an unintended, or intended, consequence it will become very difficult to continue to offer deep discounts internationally.
    23 May, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    It is a case of the foriegn countries and payees negotiate what they pay. Medicare and Medicaid ability to negotiate was stripped from ACA by GOP.
    Veterans Administration can and does negotiate their prices, both the hospitals and the clinics outpatient prices of scripts.
    23 May, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Felixofagassiz
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    As the worm turns, Cleatus, how might we visit your thesis regarding international pricing trends? In particular, I''m curious about patent-protected sales versus political distortion of markets and the impact on R&D allocations. Thank you for your post.
    23 May, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Cleatus in Cleveland
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    MindlessMan, you are clueless.
    24 May, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Karltwo
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    If Gilead sells at the current price (almost pure profit as the drug is pennies a pill to produce) for just the US market, their profit would be somewhere north of $400 Billion. Otherwise known as more than 200 years worth of R&D costs. And that's ignoring the almost 200 million cases outside of the US, with the whole market theoretically being in the trillions at this price. You can argue that Gilead can do with their government-subsidized drug protected by a government-imposed artificial monopoly what they'd like, but to argue that these prices are necessary to incentivize innovation is misinformed at best. But, so long as they can keep above water politically, they'll rake in the money.
    23 May, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • t time
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Karltwo - how do you figure it cost pennies to produce? They had to pay 11 bn just to secure the IP (via acquisition). They built the supply chain and paid several billion in R&D trials and regulatory fees. They paid scientists, project managers, regulatory and business colleagues high salaries (have to in order to be competitive and have best talent) over years to get this done.

     

    Pennies per pill? Think again. Meanwhile, they need to invest further to keep a robust pipeline to ensure growth and satisfy shareholders. Only 5% or so of all discovery compounds will make the market, and only a few of those are blockbuster. That means paying billions for stuff that goes in the trash. Is that free?

     

    Pennies per pill? Give us a break!
    23 May, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • delprice
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    Another comment envious of success, ignoring the direct economic and health benefit to patients.

     

    Health care costs are reduced with a break-thru treatment like Sovaldi. Take your own cue and try to produce something as productive and then expect not to be rewarded for the risk--good luck.
    23 May, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rasna
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    The lack of understanding as to what it takes to bring a drug to market is breathtaking.

     

    "If Gilead sells at the current price (almost pure profit as the drug is pennies a pill to produce) for just the US market, their profit would be somewhere north of $400 Billion."

     

    Drug R&D is expensive, very expensive. As a learning exercise Google any successful drug and research the time, talent and expense required to get the drug successfully to market. Also, research the number of drugs successfully developed vs those that don't pan out - the "sunk costs" of R&D.

     

    Once you understand this, come back and explain the economics of running a pharmaceutical company using simplistic pricing models. All public companies exist - or should - to enhance share holder value. If companies can't do this, at some point they go out of business. If investors didn't think that they had a reasonable chance for a reasonable return on their investment, they wouldn't invest in the company.

     

    In a "free market", the market determines an acceptable price level. If the price is too high, market forces will conspire to force a change in pricing.
    23 May, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • david s armour77
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    We know who you voted for! How is the VA doing without real market solutions?
    23 May, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • ajax133
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    One week does not a trend make. If you reflect on the possible reasons
    for the drop in scripts, two issues surface. 1- Its been about 13-15 weeks since
    the launch went parabolic, and the treatment course is 12 weeks.
    2- Probable warehousing in front of the Nov launch of their Pan Genotypic
    one pill treatmen. Remember there are approximately 4M Hep C positive
    patients in the US. If GILD treats about 180,000 of these patients they
    will track to do $11-$13B for the year. No one is even thinking of revenues
    from the ROW. There are about 200M Hep C infected patients in China, and
    a modest assumption of .5% penetration of that market would translate to $100B.
    BTW, China has 47% of the reported Liver Cancer cases in the world, and like
    Japan, Hep C is the culprit.
    23 May, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Matt-Man
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    While it is unlikely that GILD can sell drug in China with current price across the population, it is likely that rich population in China will jump on it for sure. Maybe that is less than 0.5% of total but significant for sure.

     

    In anycase even with eventual cheaper pricing drug will be a huge hit.
    23 May, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • BioNoob
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't agree with you more. Just one data point and some likely finished their therapy. There was a plateau period between week 18-20 where the TRx hovered around 8K and nobody said anything. I anticipate that patients are being warehoused awaiting for the approval of the combination product. For those that want in, this dip might be a good entry point.
    23 May, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • :-) ;-)
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Warehousing. Patients who couldn't wait are on current therapy. But its only 5 months 'til it will be MUCH easier. In Oct/Nov the numbers will be huge.
    23 May, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    it ain't going to happen today. Watch for other biotechs to develope their version of Sovaldi, like, Sangamo Biosciences.
    Not today but not so far either.
    The market is a huge one, expect competition.
    What would a "cure" for HIV be worth?
    23 May, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • ajax133
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Matt-Man: There are 200M Hep C infected patients in China. If the
    assumption is GILD penetrates 0.5% of that Market being treated,
    that would translate to $100B . Not shabby. China has a burgeoning
    middle class, and the ability to pay. With the Government assisting.
    They should not be compared to Egypt. Their economy will surpass
    the US in less than 2 years. The US population of 300M is very close
    to the number of infected patients in China. Think about it. 75% of
    the tourists in Beverly Hills each year are Chinese.
    25 May, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • duhaus
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    Well Fargo isn't too concerned and neither am I. Unfounded fears provide opportunities . . buy the dip.
    23 May, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • PlatinumChip
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    My problem is Gilead is a relative unknown in the public and now they are building poor publicity over this price point. There is a lot of outside news about this and people are disgusted. I personally think the price is fair in the current health system but that doesn't seem to matter it has been an ongoing PR problem for them. I believe cutting the price by 8-10k would earn them reprieve on this issue and end being in the spotlight of a witch hunt.
    23 May, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • t time
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Agree with your points but disagree they should back down. I think once the value of the product is fully understood (matter of time) this will cool down. The have developed a blockbuster - and I think Gilead already competitively priced Solvadi. IMHO backing down to insurance carriers who clearly have other motives is not a good precedent for the pharma industry.
    23 May, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Trying2StayFocused
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    GILD cured AIDS. They turned a diagnosis that was a death sentence into a chronic condition. And they continue to innovate in that area.

     

    If that doesn't earn goodwill, it can't be earned.
    23 May, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • delprice
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    It's difficult to reason with those stone-walled by ignorance and blind to their own envy/greed. Solvaldi's price was already discounted at launch -- it is still a bargain at twice the price.
    23 May, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    The "cure" for HIV/AIDS is in trials at Sangamo Biosciences. ART is only a temporary thing.
    23 May, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Simchad
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't be surprised if gild is actually happy with this noise. They are buying back millions of shares, so the lower the better.
    23 May, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • cahujap
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Give some rebates to these insurance comps and they will be more than happy. If they're already getting it from Gilead, then they greed for more $$$$
    23 May, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Trying2StayFocused
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    I dunno.

     

    GILD cures AIDS and now has the Aids Healthcare Foundation calling it a drug profiteer. (Is that like the Rocketeer?)

     

    Go figure.

     

    Has anyone calculated the price of Sovaldi in, say, India or Egypt as a percent of the per capita income of those countries?

     

    Are the opponents of GILD arguing we should NOT be providing AIDS treatment to Africa and Asia?

     

    I read somewhere that UnitedHealthCare (misnomer?) has already moved to restrict having Sovaldi prescribed by only certain doctors. (Why? Side effects are reported to be practically nil.) Isn't this the company who paid their CEO 1.6 billion over 15 years? (And quite frankly, he may have been worth it!)

     

    After all, this is AMERICA, by god! :)
    23 May, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Cleatus in Cleveland
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    The "poor publicity" is being built by self- serving politicians, PBM's, and insurance lobbies. Where is the good publicity for making a "cure" available to less fortunate countries at significant discounts? Where is the World Healthcare Organization thanks?
    23 May, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • User 27436823
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I believe a more likely cause for the script reduction is the buzz around Gileads non interferon regiment which will get FDA approval later this year. Heptologists maybe warehousing patients waiting 6 months for the more tolerable regimen.
    I'd like someone to ask these health insurer CEO's how many Sovaldi scripts they have actually denied... My guess is not many.
    23 May, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • delprice
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    Gilead is a true American success story -- guess that's why our dysfunctional, math illiterate policy makers, along with disingenuous competing interests are bashing it, envious of success and the ability to produce it.
    23 May, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • sungura2005
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    I'll buy the dips once a month until the forward P/E is too high. Right now it's only 10.74.
    23 May, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • outline909
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how many people read original article? All it says RX numbers are back to 2 weeks before numbers. That is it. We had have seen new prescriptions at 3,500-3,600 scripts/week in weeks 18-22, with this week's new scrips number representing a return to that baseline from last week's ''breakout'' of 3,891 new scrips. We would continue watching trends before attributing this week's drop to secondary warehousing or insurer issues.
    This week’s new patient starts were down 10% at 3445 this wk vs. 3891 for last week. This figure does not include wholesale inventory. These Sovaldi trends are still early in the launch as we just have 23 wks of scripts,"
    "We estimate that ~118k patients will be prescribed Sovaldi during ’14. We think KOL and community doc interest remain high in prescribing Sovaldi. However, we could see scripts lowering over the next coming months as secondary warehousing occurs into potential GILD interferon free regimen in 2H14. We project from Gilead’s filing date in early Feb that the regimen could be approved before or around Oct 2014," added the analyst.
    23 May, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • 7777777 angels
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Great info. Where would you find the original article, and how would you get it in real time, since it looks as though investors knew about this long before I found out at 11:30 AM. Good thing I did the math myself and figured at this weekly rate it still out sells the first quarter scripts going from 33,000 plus last quarter to a pace of 14-15 K a month for this quarter will be an nice increase qtr/qtr ....no???
    23 May, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • ABatMD
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Insurance companies and the government by the same token, should review their math: Sovaldi cost vs cost of caring for patients with cirrhosis, liver transplant etc... If only Dr. Starzel were alive, (first liver transplant surgeon), he would wonder at their reasoning.
    23 May, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • newmat
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Is this the best the bears can make up? Please spare me this lament of the unvested who now want to tear down the ones who know what and when to buy.
    Politicians, insurers, and jealous investors will be overwhelmed by the rush to buy
    Sovaldi.
    23 May, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Hamdy Sadek
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    Why is Google allowed to sell their Google glass for $1500? Did the government check their Bill of Materials cost?
    23 May, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Deahl
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps we'll see medical tourism to Egypt. Spend a few weeks in a nice hotel, see the pyramids, go boating on the Nile, side trip to Luxor. Take a pill a day (with bottled water,) come home cured...
    23 May, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • delprice
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    You'll likely be taking a counterfeit product with all the efficacy of a placebo -- of course I could be wrong with all the respect for rule of law over there.....
    23 May, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Dan Strack
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    The headline must have scared investors, because this is almost a non-issue. The average new prescription sales have averaged 3,500-3,600 for weeks 18-22 with a drop to 3,445 from the previous week's 3,891. This gives the current quarter sales (April 1-May 16) at $1.7-1.8 billion half way into the quarter.
    23 May, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • 7777777 angels
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Correct me if I'm wrong but even at 3500 new prescriptions a week that translates to 14000 per 4 week period. Didn't first quarter numbers say that only 33,000 plus were written in the first quarter? At this slowed down rate of 14,000 per month, that still translates into 42,000 plus for the quarter, no???
    23 May, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • QuiteSavvy
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    One should do the math here before any concern.
    3445 new prescriptions mean that 3445 patients were started on sovaldi that week.
    If that happened every week there would be 3445 x 52 = 179140 treated with it in one year. This equates to sales of 179140 X $84000 or sales of $15,047,760,000 or sales of greater than $15 billion from this drug alone. Even if sales falter some or price is slightly reduced this would remain a hefty figure added to the current bottom line and not fully accounted for in the price of the stock. Hence....another dip is another buying opportunity
    24 May, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    Gotta believe that sales in EU, etc, are going to increase in the next 6onths.
    What other deals is GILD going to use the funds on?
    29 May, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • sungura2005
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    3,445*52*84000=15.04 billion dollars in annual sales from the US alone. I'm buying every month until the forward P/E that's currently 10.48 is too high.
    24 May, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • bberuch
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    I feel very comfortable as a holder.
    24 May, 04:04 AM Reply Like
  • ross westgate
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Intriguing discussion here. I suspect there are a multitude of sketched investors out there that are wary of the previous sell off. They perhaps feel they could be buying high at this stage and as a result have their stops very tight. However, Gilead is more than merely a pharma lab with a pill and a single pipeline prospect. Billions are coming.

     

    Gilead is well rounded and strong and is in transition albeit by way of some notoriety. Success breeds envy and attacking a biotech is an easy target for naysayers and self serving politicians. Anyone who knows anything realizes the true cost savings behind the sticker shock used to sell advertising in main stream media. The numbers wont lie.
    24 May, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • oscarsolus
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    The noise about the price of Sovaldi and the possibility of warehousing makes the share volatil.
    There is no doubt about the quality of Sovaldi as a medicine, for Hep C patients it is the best cure.The doctors and the insurers also know this. In the long run, or maybe already, Sovaldi or a successor product will be the first choice.
    Will the profits for Gilead be high enough to get a price rise for the share?
    I think this will happen.
    What we need is a little patience.
    25 May, 05:52 AM Reply Like
  • combatcorpsmanVN
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    $GILD - there's a simple way to avoid the $84,000 bill for Sovaldi -- just die from the disease or take interferon and wish you were dead until you die. Sounds draconian to state it this way but that's what the Carriers and Politicians are saying, in effect, because one doesn't want the costs and the other needs to drag up fictional issues to justify their existence in office.

     

    In reality, the Carriers will pay for the Hep C treatment and the politicans will quit griping when it becomes politically expedient to be on the side of helping the HEP C patients.

     

    You can always count on insurance companies and politicians to test the waters before doing what the political winds force them to do. In the first instance, the costs of Sovaldi hasn't gained enough traction so the next step is to become a 'White Knight' and support the cure 'because we, as americans, couldn't allow people afflicted to suffer from this dread disease now that there's a cure."

     

    Insurance companies and Politicians in America always turn the other cheek when the first slap knocked them on their ass(es)!
    25 May, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • :-) ;-)
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    I have a good friend currently in the 10th week of treatment with Sovaldi + Interferon + Ribavirin. She is hanging on by her fingernails- can't work, no energy, depression. After I was cured in the trials, I kept on telling her to wait for the Gilead combo pill. But her doctors had been monitoring this for a long time and told her she couldn't wait.

     

    The upside is she will almost certainly be cured, and she was able to qualify for a grant from Gilead to get treatment at no cost to her. The downside, 12 weeks out of work, miserable and depressed.

     

    That is the reason for my comment above. I don't believe doctors are going to start patients on the therapy she is suffering through, when they can wait 5 months for what is pretty much a walk in the park. I obviously have no stats, but I know at least one doctor who is waiting, and he can't be the only one.
    25 May, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    Anyone suffering with Hep C and has a Dr that says wait.
    Should be advised to get a second opinion. And, not from a Dr recomended by their current Dr.
    Patients have choices, go to the best Dr you can get to. ALWAYS.
    IMO, any Dr that would recomend waiting should not be a Dr.
    Why would a Hep C patient not be advised to take a medication that shows nearly 100% cure rate?
    28 May, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • :-) ;-)
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Depends on their situation. All people w/ hep-c do not need to be treated NOW. I was advised to wait, and thank God I did. I went to a hospital clinic involved in drug trials all the time. Many opinions available there. Of course some cannot wait, but you ignore the problems of taking Interferon for 12 weeks. Patients have choices, 12 weeks of suffering, or wait 5 months and avoid that.

     

    One size does not fit all.
    28 May, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • :-) ;-)
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    btw My friend currently on the 12 week treatment w/ Interferon, goes to a public health clinic in San Francisco. Think they don't have expertise in dealing w/ hep-c? She had been followed for years, finally this year she was advised she could not wait longer- a real shame as she is really suffering.
    28 May, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Cora Schlesinger
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    The operative word here is suffering.
    29 May, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    Drs supposedly work for their patients, first. do no harm.
    The medication costs the Dr nothing.
    I would look for a new Dr.
    30 May, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • :-) ;-)
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    12 weeks of suffering IS harm- do no harm
    30 May, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • :-) ;-)
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Ask a doctor you know about Interferon. Having an opinion is not as good as having facts.
    30 May, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • wilsonlarry
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    "Total Sovaldi for the week ending May 16 amounted to 8011, new prescriptions fell11.5% to 3445" I am having a little trouble deciphering, How is the 8011 total for the the week be different than the 3445. An observation that I would like to point out is that in the first Q scripts were approximately 2400 a week-30,000-lots of Holidays, while recent weekly scripts appear to be in the 3400-3800 range. If we can get one of our astute researchers to expand on weekly sales and new projected quarterly estimates and clarify the weekly number confusion I would appreciate it.
    27 May, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • 13302632
    , contributor
    Comments (276) | Send Message
     
    The new prescriptions data seems self explanatory. The total weekly subscriptions is a mystery to me. Maybe it is indicating that there is some renewal of existing subscriptions that aren't counted as "new." So, new subscriptions represent new patients. The fact that it appears to be in the ballpark of 2 to 3 times what the new subscriptions are is hard to understand unless you know the exact definition of what is going into the total (is it renewed on monthly basis?--my guess is every 6 weeks). I would also appreciate some input from someone knowledgeable in the matter.

     

    The last few weeks the trend has been scripts in the 3000-3500 range, but evidently over 50% of US patients are being warehoused in anticipation of all oral regimen (it should be a huge 4th quarter).
    30 May, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • 13302632
    , contributor
    Comments (276) | Send Message
     
    Just one more thought, if 50% + are being warehoused and you are getting 3000+ new patients, the real (current) patient pool (US only) is 4500/wk--that's presuming the 50% warehousing is referring to new patients as the arrive and not to some cumulative total the doctor has.

     

    Note on warehousing and other analysis: http://bit.ly/RJHETo
    30 May, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • MineMan
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    The key is,,,,,U.S. scripts, ONLY.
    28 May, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • jsijimmy
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    8091 * $84,000 = $679,644,000. Not bad for one month. They could cut the price 50% and double prescriptions and still have same revenue and quiet the $1,000/pill scoffers. Assumption - entire 12 week prescription is included in prescription number - does anyone know if this is true?
    10 Jun, 10:56 PM Reply Like
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