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Gold extends losses to 15-week lows on Ukraine hopes, stronger U.S. data

Comments (36)
  • lasvegasbrad
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    I can hardly read these fairy tales anymore. What will all these idiots say when silver is back to $40 (or more) ?

     

    By fairy tale, I mean "surprise increase" in housing data for one. Take your pick for others.
    27 May, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • sasquatchexpress11
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    LOL what?

     

    Can we have a time frame on these grand predictions? The sun will eventually blow up and the dollar will eventually become worthless. I'M A GENIUS!
    27 May, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (3187) | Send Message
     
    Well, let's see now... The durable goods orders were up due to increased inventory and military spending.... gains were in all the wrong places. The housing was within .1% of expectations, so nothing to write home about there... certainly no surprise. Consumer confidence was up in one report and down in another... can't rely on that. By my judgement the economy is still stuck firmly in neutral.

     

    As for gold dropping out of its technical triangle pattern, any move is a good move at this point. A drop will stimulate physical demand further, which will end up adding additional power to the upward spike when reserves finally dry up. Demand already exceeds supply by 26.4 tonnes per quarter. Go ahead, add to that. Make my day!
    27 May, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • rubber duck
    , contributor
    Comments (193) | Send Message
     
    Physical dealer's prices have not participated in the recent gold monkey hammer. If you want to own the physical you're going to have to pay about $1290 to $1300 depending on the bar.
    28 May, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • droz1115
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Time frame is within a year. The dollar is already next to worthless and these articles like this are designed to keep the general public out of gold and silver + gold and silver equities well the big banks have stealthy backed up the truck for the past 3 months. Once they pop the cork and the general public realizes they've missed the bottom.... The sky's the limit.
    31 May, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    I'm still having clients hold off on their purchases. While we can bounce at anytime, I have consistently called for lower lows. http://bit.ly/QfEw0M
    27 May, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • arihalli
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    I am TRYING not to buy into this dip.... I see that AG is below its 52 week high... i agree there is probably worse news just ahead for the PMetals
    27 May, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    I think patience will pay off, but unfortunately still think we hit lower lows. This coming from a guy who sells the stuff, so one can't accuse me of bias!
    27 May, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Prezzo giusto
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    Hello Doug, i 've enjoyed reading several of your articles and you surely are not the only one predicting lower lows. http://on.mktw.net/1mm...
    I think nevertheless that many beaten down gold and silver miners are much closer to a bottom than to a top and are more than worthwile to be purchased from a longer-term investor's perspective.
    27 May, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Prezzo giusto
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    The euro crisis may seem to have been forgotten, but have a look at the rise of eurosceptic parties. AfD in Germany, UKIP in GB, Front National in France. In his last television speech president Hollande of France assured he will do everything to get away from the path of austerity...i cannot imagine Mrs. Merkel will be amused by the content of that speech. Nor will be General Public in Germany.
    27 May, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Prezzo,

     

    I can't argue with your statement, but if a stock is still 20% from the bottom, and you think gold is going down to help that stock go 20% lower, what difference does it make that it is closer to a bottom than a top?

     

    What if gold falls 30%?

     

    I've got a little bet better of a track record than an article written 1 month ago saying that gold might fall, but thanks for referencing. http://bit.ly/KaF0D1

     

    Regarding the EURO, I am EURO negative and Dollar bullish which can add some pressure to gold as the Dollar rises. I'm also YEN negative and together they make up 70% of the Dollar Index.
    27 May, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Prezzo giusto
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    Your December 2013 was one of the articles i have been reading last night, Doug. Thank you for providing me the link with other articles too....
    I will be looking out for your next call.
    Cheers,
    Pat
    27 May, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (3187) | Send Message
     
    "General Public" in Germany is fast becoming the minority in the EU. If they insist on being pig-headed they will soon have all the PIIGS showing up on their doorstep to eat from their feeding trough. They need to implement the equivalent of the Marshall Plan to reconstruct the devastated areas of the EU. The euro is guaranteed to fail if they don't do something to equalize investment throughout the region.
    27 May, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1159) | Send Message
     
    @Doug, So we are lower now in the $1250's spot. The real question is how much lower and I didn't catch that in the article. If gold might revisit $1180 to $1200 that's 4-5% so in this sense I don't see why not start a buying plan now?!
    29 May, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    Hi 615. below $1,000. It's a psychological level that can break the back of the gold bug. Market makers job is to make the bulls bleed. You see it in Netflix, Apple, Google, you name it. Then they all revert. Gold, is no different and silver will just tag along, but also has some deflationary headwinds on top of it.

     

    Most banks have gold touching I think just below the $1,180 double bottom low at $1,135. This is a silly number because if we break the low, it will be the 3rd move below $1,180 and I think it will carry some weight.

     

    Of course the other things I look at have to align with Jupiter and Mars (j/k).

     

    As far as a buying plan, I tell my clients this; In a few years, some of my clients will be sitting on 50% gains and some with 70% gains. Neither will be complaining. Even 50% and 80% neither would complain. And no, for those reading, not everyone bought gold at the $1,900 high. I still recommend dollar cost averaging into one's allocation into physical metals and go enjoy life. But I try and call it for traders too, and so far have done ok. No guarantees I am right, but I call it like I see it, you can at least say that (and some of the "hyperinflation," "dollar's going to zero" folks hate me for it). They can't explain why treasuries are so strong.
    29 May, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Prezzo giusto
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    I think hugest profits can and will be made in stocks of miners whose AISC are very close to gold spot price, mining companies that have very small profits or even loss if gold goes further down, but that can cope with that for a number of years bcs of their strong balance sheet...
    29 May, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1159) | Send Message
     
    @Doug: yeah $1000 could happen but what's the probability of it happening?

     

    Many other currencies will go to zero before the USD.

     

    It does feel like a retest of $1180 to $1200 could happen and if so that really does increase odds of failure from there to $1050 or lower.
    29 May, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    615, I have many things I look at before writing an article, which I don't even write but about 1 a month. I combine this with some intuition and understanding of market makers of course, based on some experience in following the markets and being a former financial advisor, stepping out from the matrix of what they teach you to do my own thinking.

     

    Yes, agree with you on other currencies vs. dollar, which is why I am dollar bullish (among other reasons). Most in the gold camp don't understand this coming from a guy who sells gold.

     

    As far as probability goes, if you were to ask my intuition, it would say 100%. I'm ok with being wrong though too, because my advice for investing is to dollar cost average in. But I just can't write my all-in article until we hit those lower marks, and "if" we do, then I'll pick a spot to write it based on what I see at that time.

     

    I bought some NUGT calls at EOD yesterday. Blind squirrel? haha I sell when I see good profit of course. Like to see gold go green here today. That will help catapult.
    29 May, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • droz1115
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    My intuition is telling me the bottom was back on December 31st when GLD hit 114.46. These articles and price calls are all the same. Goldman, JP, Citigroup, etc. ALL are calling for $1000-1050... If you think that they're going to allow the general public who ALSO believes (although the banks don't really believe this, they're lying) that gold is going to $1000-1050 to buy metals and miners at those prices then you're kidding yourself. Even if the bottom was $850-900 there's no way in hell that they're allowing mom and pop to buy that near the low.
    They've conveniently kept gold and silver within this 1250-1320 range well they've been backing up the truck because THIS right now is the bottom. Furthermore, many quality miners (EGO, ABX, GG, PAAS to name a few) are close to there 52 week lows and again, the mass believes that they'll go LOWER so they're waiting to buy. The banks know this is a key psychological level where only the TRUE bulls will be buying (and they hate this but there's nothing they can do about it) along with them.
    Once they've scooped up enough shares from weak hands and traders then they're going to fire the cannon. When the general public realizes they've been doped (they ALWAYS are) from buying at this bottom then they'll scramble in sending the prices relentlessly ripping upwards, which will mark the beginning of the move to what I believe will be ~$8000 an ounce. Of course the banks will ensure a bumpy ride to make sure as few profit off it as possible ha.

     

    Cheers and keep loading up on physical metals and miners!
    31 May, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1159) | Send Message
     
    @Doug: Maybe better to go with 99%. I'll chose to agree with Einhorn in that how can some things esp. with markets be 100% certain. (http://bloom.bg/1m0LRdP)

     

    As to end of day action: it did feel like we might get a run higher for a bit (like to 1280) even if we are still going to 1180 (which I'll only say 50/50 at this point). 1220 Was solid launch pad and could prove a low enough in my mind. Except I agree with your view that market makers and such would love to flush it out which would mean at least 1150 in my mind.
    31 May, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • doc47
    , contributor
    Comments (992) | Send Message
     
    I would not own any precious metal stock without using covered calls. For GG, the only one I presently own, I get ~7% annually from the dividends and calls in my IRA.
    27 May, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • just dan
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Sounds good, except the 15% Canadian withholding tax on the dividends is lost money in that IRA,.
    27 May, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • doc47
    , contributor
    Comments (992) | Send Message
     
    You're right but that number is already in my 7% figure. Also, 15% of the 60 cents annual dividend is only 9 cents, not that big a deal. Just today, I brought back July 27 calls I sold 4 months ago at $1.05 for 12 cents. Now I'm waiting/hoping for a bounce off these lows within a few weeks to sell another set of options.
    27 May, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • rubber duck
    , contributor
    Comments (193) | Send Message
     
    I can see if you held paper gold today might be a rough day. If you were looking to buy physical, today was a good day.
    27 May, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Jimjiminy
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    "Gold extends losses... on Ukraine hopes"

     

    At least 30 - maybe as many as 100 - died yesterday and today in the biggest escalation so far. Exactly what "hopes" are these ?

     

    (I'm not making any political point for either side - if people want to debate the rights and wrongs, they should go to another website - I'm just intrigued that gold has had such a large sudden decline on a day when full-scale war looks more likely than ever...)
    27 May, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • PM's Rock
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    Physical gold and silver are in strong hands. No way I would sell physical in the face of all this manipulation and propaganda. Will wait and hope it goes lower to load up some more. This charade will not last. Negative press can fool the sheep and the paper traders, but long term I prefer hard assets to a cheapened dollar that will one day default on its debt obligations.
    27 May, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • vfr750
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Options Expiration Mini Puke... Barclays or another bullion bank having a field day.
    27 May, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • MisterJ
    , contributor
    Comments (580) | Send Message
     
    Wow, gold is down? Isn't that what happenend ever since the bubble burst in 2011?
    27 May, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    Mister J,it has went UP and DOWN ,it's what commodities do.
    27 May, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • ted lujan
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    Are we looking at the wrong stats to see where gold will go? The Germans can not get to their gold because the Federal reserve has it all leased out. The federal reserve has to keep interest rates down because it can not afford to pay the interest on the national debt at higher rates and give us Obama Care at the same time. The print presses can not keep up with the demand in the U.S. and all the developed countries. The price of gold has only one direction, up, because the value of paper money it takes to buy it, keeps decreasing by the day. How long can the government keep fooling the people that every thing is all right? I think not for much longer. Those that tell us that the price of gold is going down do so because if the people lose faith on the paper money the jig will be over. I think this is a wonderful time to buy companies that produce the currency of extremis.
    28 May, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • james.
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    You are right Ted Lujan ! The FRB "Forward Guidance" has tied their hands so they cannot increase their Fed Funds Rate until deep into 2015 or early 2016, even if the U.S. Inflation Rate is 5% at that time , which of course is very Bullish for Gold & Silver prices ! The Inflation Hawk, Mr Plosser, FRB Member and President of the Bank of Philadelphia, has lamented this danger in speech after speech, but nobody seems to pay him much attention, even though the year-over-year U.S. Inflation is now up to 2.3% (well above the FRB Target of 2%), which is of course very Bullish for Gold & Silver prices, as is continual news of a growing U.S. economy which produces more Inflation and puts more discretionary income into the pockets of Middle-Class people who do the buying of Gold & Silver ! May 28, 2014 at 1:53 a.m. PDT.
    28 May, 04:53 AM Reply Like
  • james.
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    The Gold price on May 27, 2014 did have a Panic Bottom, which did hold at the 0.618 Fib Number of $1260.80 per oz, and also resulted in a spike below the Lower Bollinger Band as also occurred in Dec 2013 at its low of $1186 per oz. Also confirming that May 27 was the Panic Bottom is the very Bearish article written by Mark Hulbert on May 27 , despite the fact that his Hulbert Gold Sentiment Index is making a very Bullish V-Bottom for the recent 6 months which is consistent with Gold presently rising up on its 3rd Leg Super Cycle which will classically carry Gold to new all-time highs which I project to be $2700 per oz circa June 2015. Then, after a small technical pullback, Gold price will continue to make new all-time highs !
    The 2nd Leg Super Cycle, which carried GLD from $69 to $186, did conclude a classical 50% correction to its Geometric Mean of $114 when GLD did Double-Bottom at $115 in Dec 2013.
    The Ratio of HUI/(Gold Price) will increase from its present value to 0.25 and then to 0.33 as Gold rises up to $2700 per oz, thus giving HUI = $900, which is a 4-fold increase from present values, and thus giving NEM = $90 per share and HL = $11 per share. See the long-term Ratio plot of HUI/(Gold Price) on Aden Sisters Web Site, and other technicians also. NEM did have excellent Q1 2014 EPS of $0.22 , which beat the average analysts' estimate by $0.03 .
    Using widely available software, and my selection of % Box Size for most accurate results, the P & F Charts have the following present Price Objectives : NEM = $38 , HL = $5.97 , GLD = $169 , and SLV = $26.
    In conclusion, the above article on GLD and NEM is looking into the rear-view-mirror, instead of through the front windshield ! Look to it people !! May 28, 2014 at 1:42 a.m. PDT.
    28 May, 04:45 AM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1159) | Send Message
     
    The funny thing is stronger numbers referenced in durable good were all military related so its not really the economy is great but rather war industry is great and based on all the conflicts around the world it seems reasonable -- that should be the true headline here.
    28 May, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • pat45
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    Gold would be up huge if not for all the paper derivatives not backed by the real metal. Watch and be patient. Lots of demand, but paper GLD trumps the real metal.
    28 May, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • jamerson
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Due to the length of the pennant before this breakdown, I think prior price targets may have changed. I would like to know what the experts say,but they don't seem to agree. Any experts out there?
    28 May, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • ted lujan
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    I am averaging down on Alexco. It is starting to hurt. They have the mill shut down for expansion due to their new Flame and Moth deposit. It is huge and still open. This may be one of those opportunities to make some big bucks when silver prices turn the corner. I am going to continue averaging down. It is snowing and the snow is unstable just waiting for the last snow flake to start the avalanche. I think the turning point is near and will continue catching swords until the price of silver turns the corner.
    29 May, 05:59 PM Reply Like
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