New 2014 low for 10-year Treasury yield

The S&P 500 is making new records daily and small caps are flying again, but a big decline Treasury yields in morning action has brought the 10-year down to 2.47% - its lowest print of 2014.

Fed chief Janet Yellen is speaking later today, as is Dallas boss Dick Fischer. At 2 ET is the release of the Fed's Beige Book.

TLT +0.7% premarket, TBT -1.4%


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Comments (12)
  • Aikman
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
    I am getting burned with my TBT. I don't want to sell low so I'm gonna wait it out. Rates must rise one day I guess...
    28 May 2014, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (5360) | Send Message
    People have been getting burned by TBT for years.


    Some things just can't be predicted.
    28 May 2014, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Phil_O
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
    I am so in the same boat, I buy x dollars worth every month as I don't have any debt (not stable enough to lever up and buy a home). I just consider it a form of diversification and do my best to ignore...
    28 May 2014, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • jackmayes
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
    This is EU money coming across the pond due to ECB deflation fighting. U.S. econo data is improving and the Fed is 6 months from 0 bond buying. Fed has $4.1 trillion in LT US Bonds and MBS (as of May 23, 2014). There is a lot of money out there chasing a return above zero. 10 Year will be over 3% by year end.
    28 May 2014, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • coelacanth10
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
    I wonder whether the 10-year Treasury yield is reflecting the weakness of the recovery, which, with the exception of oil and gas exploration, continues to show very little growth.
    28 May 2014, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16557) | Send Message


    The declines in interest rates are merely corrections to the moves upward in 2013 that resulted from hysterical reaction to tapering talk. Then, tapering arrived and proved to be a 100% non-event, so rates have been moving back toward their old trend lines, prior to the upward excursion beginning last May. They are just now approaching those old trends.


    Unless rates would start to decline well below those level, it's unlikely that these recent moves indicate much of anything. And, unless credit formation and/or inflation spikes noticeably higher, there won't be much upward pressure either.
    28 May 2014, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11240) | Send Message
    Average Interest rate on all treasury notes outstanding is 1.81%....5 year auction comes in at 1.51%...
    28 May 2014, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Great Swami
    , contributor
    Comments (1203) | Send Message
    wouldn't bet the house on the 3% tag. Absolutly everyone on the planet predicted rising rates as a done deal going into 2014. Now here ye sit at a yearly low. THe only thing that will push rates up is increased credit demand and an accelerating economy. We have neither and I can't see any on the horizon.
    Don't fall for that old saw that money printing begets rising rates.
    And for those in TBT, remember it is a derivative based on options pricing and is subject to time erosion. You would be better off either shorting TLT or buying puts IMO
    28 May 2014, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • King Rat
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
    GS, that is a great point, though so was jack's. One other outside possibility is some smart money sees a QE extension coming.
    28 May 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • The little prince
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
    I totally agree with you Great. Interesting to see that the consensus has been expecting an increase of inflation since 2009 in most of the developed markets. In fact, we are now seeing more the opposite : more deflation pressure. Why ? Because there is no much wage growth in most of developed economies (globalization effect probably). Credit growth risks also to slowdown as property market is now decelerating in several developed countries.
    So, the trend for long term rates (decrease in developed countries) is probably just a reflection of what's happening to inflation expectations.
    29 May 2014, 03:53 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (4504) | Send Message
    Stocks and treasuries cant go up in tandem forever. Im guessing treasuries are the first ones to blink
    29 May 2014, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • f3309977
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    No doubt rates will rise in the long term. But perhaps what we are seeing here is the elimination of the middle class. Lack of wage growth coupled with tremendous student loan debt "invested" (consumed by most) and fewer opportunities for young people in the formative years results in reduced availability of credit to qualified borrowers and a reduced standard of living. That coupled with increasing prices for basic consumption items like food and shelter results in deflation, ergo - low nominal interest rates. Until the day of reckoning when the world stops trading in dollars and the US defaults through monetization of the debt.
    29 May 2014, 11:20 PM Reply Like
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