BlackBerry +1.4% AH after Chen talks at Code Conference


"I'm quite confident that we can save the patient," says John Chen (BBRY) during a Code Conference talk. He gives himself an 80% chance.

Chen also reaffirms BlackBerry's commitment to its struggling phone ops - "I will be able to create a lot of value for our shareholder even without handset business, but I can create more with the handset business." - and says his company is nearing the end of its massive restructuring.

Interestingly, he declined to comment when asked if BlackBerry would be making Android phones.

When asked if he's the most qualified person to run BlackBerry, Chen didn't mince words. "Am I the most qualified? No, I'm the only one they could find."

From other sites
Comments (105)
  • ELLAS
    , contributor
    Comments (2709) | Send Message
     
    """Interestingly, he declined to comment when asked if BlackBerry would be making Android phones."""

     

    The most ridiculous and nonsense question in BBRY's history. Bravo to the Knob that asked this.

     

    And once again, who makes cash on Android phones? Lol, yes one company by the name of Sammy. Android = Malware/Virus infested and technologically behind the times. No Thanks...
    28 May 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Energysystems
    , contributor
    Comments (2114) | Send Message
     
    "Am I the most qualified? No, I'm the only one they could find."

     

    The same $BBRY bulls talked up Thorsten Heins. Ruh-Roh.
    28 May 2014, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    He declined to comment, which means that the android blackberries are already planned or on the drawing board. Good decision, but about two years too late.
    28 May 2014, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Zack 800
    , contributor
    Comments (2191) | Send Message
     
    @PM

     

    Highly unlikely...your mind reading skills are a little off...
    28 May 2014, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • NBohrQM
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
     
    I think your crack pipe need a refill.
    28 May 2014, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • ATI nsider
    , contributor
    Comments (1244) | Send Message
     
    Philip, for your information, the BlackBerry security image would be killed if they ever went Android. And why should they anyway? Android is one of the worst programmed OS in existence. Its a very ugly coded OS and highly inefficient. BlackBerry 10 is the best mobile OS out to date, and I am sure Apple and Google fear it.
    28 May 2014, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    @ATI

     

    "the BlackBerry security image would be killed if they ever went Android. And why should they anyway? Android is one of the worst programmed OS in existence. Its a very ugly coded OS and highly inefficient."

     

    And yet... they went extreme measures to enable an Android emulator.
    28 May 2014, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    @Mr. Knowitall,

     

    Haha! Here's a history of how Android came into existence on BB10. Kudos to BB engineers who threw in a lifeline that JC is still hanging on and marketing - Android Ready.

     

    http://bit.ly/1dw4BUj
    29 May 2014, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    @ATI,
    Actually BlackBerry can still fork Android into a secure device. But appears that QNX has a larger purpose. Notwithstanding QNX or Android, BB has taken care of the hardware part. It should now focus on the App Market part for which its likely they may signup with Google if their current efforts to significantly populate BB World fail. From JC's comments today I don't think he wants to give up making devices.
    29 May 2014, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Bomber Joe
    , contributor
    Comments (497) | Send Message
     
    @Knowitall: "they went extreme measures to enable an Android emulator. "

     

    But NOT, you will observe, an Android phone!
    29 May 2014, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • ELLAS
    , contributor
    Comments (2709) | Send Message
     
    I think what he means is BB10 is a much better organised OS interface versus Android. This is common fact.
    29 May 2014, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • ELLAS
    , contributor
    Comments (2709) | Send Message
     
    It's an impressive engineering achievement to get Android apps working properly on BB10.
    29 May 2014, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    Clever, I'll give you that. Interesting though how they aren't afraid to admit it's a 'hack'

     

    "and a really deep and tricky hack: catching syscalls in apps that bypassed libs, or had libs statically linked."
    29 May 2014, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Ftech
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    Brilliant strategist......straight talk with some " in between the lines" tidbits. Here is a guy who has full control of the steering wheel.
    28 May 2014, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Energysystems
    , contributor
    Comments (2114) | Send Message
     
    Like when he balked on whether devices were coming or going with $BBRY? "50/50"? A brilliant strategist doesn't need a PR coach.
    28 May 2014, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • HFI
    , contributor
    Comments (1694) | Send Message
     
    John is doing all the right things. Now whether the right things will make BBRY profitable again is another issue. Execution has been on track, but luck will play an important role. Will Blackberry be able to win back corporate customers? Will it fumble during the execution phase? Will BES 12 gain enough traction to offset the cash burn?

     

    A big part of this will be hinged on luck. Bulls will think it's all Chen if BBRY is successful, and bears are betting on the odds.

     

    Interesting company to follow, but I'm on the side where I think if execution is on par, then positive cash flow should be warranted. However, this doesn't mean BBRY will grow, just merely that the company won't die. Margin of safety is declining on the comp, so bulls should apply a discount value to the liquidation value in case if everything fails.
    28 May 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • laugher
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Energysystems - why would John tell his customers and shareholders now whether BBRY is going the long haul with devices or not when he is in the middle of that assessment? Do you find yourself jumping the gun and publish what you intend to do before you finish your analysis? Nothing personal but John is doing the right thing professionally and he will not be pressured into telling you something especially when it's premature to do so.
    28 May 2014, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • ATI nsider
    , contributor
    Comments (1244) | Send Message
     
    Energysystems
    "Like when he balked on whether devices were coming or going with $BBRY? "50/50"? A brilliant strategist doesn't need a PR coach."

     

    You do realize that is not what he meant nor said right? Re-read what he said without taking it out of context.
    28 May 2014, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • ELLAS
    , contributor
    Comments (2709) | Send Message
     
    Energysystems

     

    50/50 yesterday and 80/20 today. What's the point in over promising? He's telling it just as it is. Tomorrow we may see 100/0. Only time will tell.
    30 May 2014, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    Now, finally when Chen speaks, BBRY share goes up. He must have a good coach, and 80-20 sure beats 50-50. You bears watch out, the General is rejuvenated and totally in charge.
    28 May 2014, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • eldon wilk
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    BBRY is about security. You will not see a BBRY android. Chen was the only qualified one they could find because they started at the top of the list and he said yes.
    28 May 2014, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Frank Siedler
    , contributor
    Comments (992) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Mr. Chen ist the right man. He has humor and is doing the right things to bring BlackBerry forward. Well, and why he should build Android phones, when Android-Apps are running on BlackBerry 10 devices?! :-) What a nonsense... what a stupid question :-)
    28 May 2014, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • creativeink72
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    He probably didn't answer the question because he was trying to figure out how to respond to such a stupid question in a polite way and just couldn't do it.
    28 May 2014, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • The_C_Man
    , contributor
    Comments (3562) | Send Message
     
    Mr Chen could have emulated Enzio Ferrari when Ford asked how much to buy Alfa Romeo so Ford could use the same braking system. Enzio turned to Ford and asked "How much for me to buy Ford?"

     

    His reply could have been "When do you think Google will build phones with the Blackberry operating system".
    29 May 2014, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • vigma
    , contributor
    Comments (1019) | Send Message
     
    This is the news the longs have been waiting for - and, to be honest, have in many ways anticipated. John Chen, turnaround maestro, is working his magic. He is already clearly beginning to see his plan unfolding for BBRY. He has increased dramatically his odds of success to 80:20. He sees where and how everything fits together. His increasing confidence is unambiguous. The talk of company survival, cashflow breakeven and profitability has become a likelihood as opposed to a dream in a few short months. Bears and shorts should take a long step back to avoid being blinded by this rising star - or get on board if they have any sense. Bravo Chen!
    28 May 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    +1
    28 May 2014, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @vigma
    No, don't shoo the bears away. The tide has turned and we are going to set the bear traps and put some more honey out there in the yard. We are going to sedate the bears and skin them for fur, and roast them for the Novemberfest for the launching of BES12, Classic, Z50, Z3 LTE.
    28 May 2014, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • hz06
    , contributor
    Comments (1638) | Send Message
     
    Ha ha...
    28 May 2014, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @hz06
    I was wondering where you are? I'm glad you show up for the powwow.
    28 May 2014, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • hz06
    , contributor
    Comments (1638) | Send Message
     
    this 80:20 actually matches my gut feeling perfectly based on the recent development.

     

    is his confidence from feeling good working with Foxconn? from this quarter's numbers look good, even better than planned? with response from Project Ion is better than expected?
    28 May 2014, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @hz06
    Yes, all of the above.
    Now I have a decision to make should I buy back my 9 strike calls for June 21? What is the probability of ever reaching 9? With this bullish "news", it is difficult to calculate.
    28 May 2014, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    @BBwetrust,
    I recommend not to buy 9 strike calls. Chances are for the SP pin around 8. Still if you feel bullish, safer bet is a 1:1 7-9 vertical call spread. If the pin settles around 8, there can be an upside of ~50 cents. Long in-the-money call is better than outright long out-of-the money position.

     

    Chen did say he had some interesting metrics that he'd share on the earnings call.
    28 May 2014, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @seekingthetrooth
    Thanks for the reply. I agree with you, but I just need a second opinion to feel better. The shelling BBRY took today from all the headwinds was nasty, I had to resort to comic relief to aliviate the pain.
    28 May 2014, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • hz06
    , contributor
    Comments (1638) | Send Message
     
    BB, if i were you, i would sell strike 9 puts. even in case get assigned, cost base close to 7?
    29 May 2014, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @seeking, hz
    You all misunderstand me, I've written covered calls with a 9 stroke. I think I just leave them alone for now. It is too costly to buy it back now.
    29 May 2014, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @hz06
    If I have no BBRY stock, yes, I would sell 9 strike put. But I got put with BBRY shares up to my ears in March, thanks to Carter Worth and John Chen. Should I say the catalysts were not potent for that particular trade. So adding to the list of ingredients for trading is potent catalyst. Simply catalyst wouldn't do.
    29 May 2014, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @seeking, hz
    I couldn't believe it. The 9 strike call for June 21 has doubled overnight.
    29 May 2014, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    @BBwetrust,
    With my strategy you would've pocketed 22 cent just for today. 7 Call is up 33 cents. :)
    29 May 2014, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @seeking
    That is if you could buy the option overnight. Too bad there is not such market. The option market makers are no fools, after the ""news" they don't sell it to you "cheap" any more.
    29 May 2014, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    BBwe,

     

    How and you not have any BBRY stock, yet have written covered calls?
    29 May 2014, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @KIA
    I have BB stocks up to my ears, remembered I got put to the stock in March? I've written the 9 strike calls for a nickel and is now a dime. Not too smart when the tide turned today. I guess that is the price I pay for being a penny pincher.
    29 May 2014, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    thanks for the clarification.
    29 May 2014, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19451) | Send Message
     
    "How and you not have any BBRY stock, yet have written covered calls?"

     

    He's written undercover calls. A Lackbery specialty financial instrument.
    30 May 2014, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  • GPWMC
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    This is ridiculous...ambiguous comments like ohhh about 80/20 provide absolutely no tangible details and people trying to invest on this kind of information are out of their minds.

     

    Project Ion - BBRY is a little late to the game, but if they can find a niche, could be great, if not, complete waste of time. Competition is intense in the IOT space and blackberry needs to find a way to leverage their hardware and enterprise software to deliver a connected solution that simplifies and expands on what is currently available.

     

    Healthcare - See Project Ion

     

    Windermere/Q20 - Literally no difference from the Q10 and Z10 talk a year ago, long-term longs know what I'm talking about. The phones may sell marginally better than their predecessors, but without something special to draw customers in (which in the past was BBM exclusivity, e-mail, and the fact that one's company paid for it - NOT the keyboard), the phone won't claw back any significant market share.

     

    I am long TSE:BB but very skeptical. We'll all be rich though if:

     

    - Ion/Healthcare software finds a niche AND a way to enhance enterprise and hardware businesses

     

    - New phones need to have flawless app functionality and a much better PC management software program (e.g. what Itunes does for your phone)
    28 May 2014, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @GPWMC
    It doesn't matter. The Captain Chen has spoken, and the stock moved up, not down like a couple months ago. It is like a Fed statement, if the market listens to the Fed and likes what it hears that's what counts. The economy, or in this case the BBRY stock, will take care of itself in due course because you have all those unsung heroes working behind the scene to make things happen.
    28 May 2014, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • laugher
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    GPWMC - "Competition is intense in the IOT space and blackberry needs to find a way to leverage their hardware and enterprise software to deliver a connected solution that simplifies and expands on what is currently available."

     

    So you are looking at the man that faced the very same argument points at Sybase when Oracle, IBM, SAP and Siebel were well on top of their game and the market for ERP/CRM software was saturated, resulting in Sybase coming out of their "database legacy" to evolve into the financial services and banking world's best offering around mobile financial services, culminating in the sale of Sybase later to SAP at an astronomical and previously deemed ridiculous price.
    28 May 2014, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19451) | Send Message
     
    Sure. The stock is up. You may now order the new Dacia Logan. John "Thorsten Heins Lite" Chen pep talks and vents more hot air, but interestingly this time around the stock hardly moves, compared to 2013. No surprise there.

     

    His performance is a total disaster, enjoy the chart http://imgur.com/iX8HqT7
    28 May 2014, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • MPF94025
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    @Andreas, just curious what your experience is with the Z30 or any other BB10 OS device?

     

    It appears there are several individuals who continue to post negative articles on BBRY yet have never put in any meaningful time understanding the OS or its capabilities.

     

    Fair enough question, don't you think?

     

    If you don't use a BBRY device, what's your go-to device?
    29 May 2014, 02:32 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19451) | Send Message
     
    No experience needed. I don't need to buy a barrel of JET-A1 fuel, when investing in XOM and I don't need to erect a cell tower in my back yard when investing in NOK, for example. You can own KO while being a Pepsi man no problem.

     

    All you need to know here is that the cash burn continues, FCF dwindles, and market share collapses ever further http://imgur.com/zDhVT2m

     

    This is what makes BBRY a formidable stock to short all the way to $0 or break-up, when Prem Watsa will extract value for himself.
    29 May 2014, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19451) | Send Message
     
    See http://bloom.bg/1muARa7 and realise - there is no hope, just a continuum of losses and hurt. Kantar Worldpanel and ComScore will drop market share coverage soon, as they did for obsolete Symbian.
    29 May 2014, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Food for Thought
    , contributor
    Comments (1680) | Send Message
     
    re: more hot air

     

    I think the cash flow positive statements is what really moved the stock, achieving that goal in 2014 is worth a 5% pop today. The other remarks make good media sound bites but are really hot air/gossip as you stated.
    29 May 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Zack 800
    , contributor
    Comments (2191) | Send Message
     
    @AH

     

    It seems that BB's survival may not be dependent on handset sales.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1mwTbiP

     

    Looks like your shorting BB stock days may be coming to an end. No doubt it was a good run while it lasted.
    29 May 2014, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    @GPWMC -- you're saying BB is late to the IoT game? QNX was an important player even before the game was invented. QNX is the OS in a huge number of "things": e.g; cars [#1], medical devices, nuclear reactors, Cisco's routers, GE appliances, etc. If QNX makes no more than half of the revenue that goes into the "Software & Other" line in BB's accounting, then it's scoring good margins.

     

    The main point is that BB does not have to make Apple-like sales or margins from its hardware division. BB needs nothing more than to break even on handset sales, and it removes the single biggest drag of the past two years on the company's fortunes. John Chen figures he can break even or better if BB does nothing more than sell 10 million phones per year. BB's new deal with Foxconn means that their handset costs come almost entirely from salaries and advertising. 4K software engineers dedicated exclusively to handsets at $80K/year = $320 million. Sell 10 million phones at ASP of $250 = $2.5 billion. With Foxconn taking on all manufacturing costs (parts, supply chain) and inventory management, you can see how BB should be able to find a profit in there somewhere.

     

    Winning or breaking even in the BBM division should also not be the hardest thing to do. Monetization has just begun in the form of sticker sales. BBM Protected for the enterprise will go on sale at around the same time as The Classic; BBM Money is being trialled in Indonesia; and sponsored BBM channels should bring in even more cash.

     

    People who talk about the death of BB somehow forget as a rule to mention BES. According to Gartner, BES has 26% of the MDM market. They're larger than the next 3 MDM providers combined. All BB has to do here is to prevent the 80K strong customer base from eroding even further. Revenue is held back at the moment with all the long-term promotions BB has been offering with through EZPass and its free services to companies migrating back to BB.
    30 May 2014, 03:13 AM Reply Like
  • MPF94025
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    @AH

     

    First of all, the article you cited completely discounts any impact from the EZPass program, BES 10/12 release, etc. The IDC "guesstimate" is simply mapping out a trajectory on what is a very, very weak analysis. Given what we have seen happen from 2010 until 2014 are you naive enough to believe that projections made in 2014 will be anywhere near accurate in 2018? To put the IDC report in perspective, the first phone with Android, the HTC Dream, was announced in Oct 2008, and Google did not release its first phone with Android until 2010. So..... so much for the IDC projections that you use as your braintrust. But heck, someone pays IDC to come up with stats so they produce numbers that are believable by those who are uninformed.

     

    Second, the analogies regarding jet fuel and cola are simply ridiculous. Of course you can't "test" jet fuel yourself...but you also are at much greater risk investing in such a product than one you CAN test (for free, no less) like a smartphone. The notion that one would invest in a cola company without even the curiosity to see if it tasted terrible has no merit: yes, you can see people around you drinking it, or if not spend a buck and buy a can from a vending machine.

     

    The potential shortcoming with this analysis is that you have access to the BB10 devices, but choose not to explore, and you don't see many in use, so you make the common assumption that the device is terrible.

     

    It is clear the BB10 devices were rushed out; were foolishly compared with dominant competitors in an established smartphone market; etc. But the devices, the software, the company leadership is maturing, just as iOS and Android did after they were released.

     

    There were plenty of people who thought the iOS devices were raw, and then after they were polished felt that the iPad was stupid. There were people who questioned whether Android could challenge iOS and all the apps written for that platform. People thought Apple was dead: it was, until the right leader came long, more mature, and with a vision.

     

    Maybe you should get a hold of a Z30, sideload some Android apps if that's what floats your boat, and see what you think. If you use an iOS device, I can tell you the Z30 is far and away a more productive tool.

     

    Or you might be asking yourself in 2018 why you missed a good investment because you were too busy listening to the biased, uninformed BBRY bashers who, like you, had no idea what the devices were like, the same kind of thought process that kept people from investing in Amazon, or Google or Apple after jobs returned because they didn't bother to actually buy something from Amazon, or see the power of Google's search engine, or try a Mac product when Jobs was back in Cupertino rigting the ship.

     

    I have no illusion that BBRY will achieve what those companies have achieved, but as far as an investment goes, BBRY has a much better chance of going much higher than where it sits than it does of going to "0" as you and many others, who have no personal experience with the device, continue to tell others just how awful the devices are and why BBRY has no future.
    30 May 2014, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19451) | Send Message
     
    If you limit your investment horizon only to businesses whose products or services you can try or use - no chemical industry, no re-insurance, no industrial robotics for you.

     

    Practically no non-U.S. stocks at all, if this is where you are based.

     

    Just think about how incredibly limiting such an investment approach would be.
    30 May 2014, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @MPF
    I can't believe that you spend so much time debating with AH. He is a lost cause.
    30 May 2014, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    Yasch,

     

    "According to Gartner, BES has 26% of the MDM market. They're larger than the next 3 MDM providers combined."

     

    But wouldn't you agree that this install base is largely legacy installations and a holdover from the BB7 heyday?
    30 May 2014, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • MPF94025
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    @AH

     

    I don't limit my investments as you suggest. I purchased BIDU at the post-split equivalent of $11. Like almost all successful investments, it was a mixture of some insight and luck. I simply saw it early on as the Chinese version of Google, it was early in the widespread use of the internet in China, and it had the dominant position in search engines in China: that was good enough for me. I can't even read the damn home page. But I could put 2+2 together. So I do understand that you can't "try and buy" every investment.

     

    What I dislike is the ongoing trash talk of BBRY from people who choose to simply rehash badmouthing a company with a 1 sided perspective.

     

    A good part of the fight BBRY is facing is the toxic environment caused by irresponsible individuals such as yourself who blindly cite imbecilic market-share predictions like the one from IDC and trash talk the company and devices when you clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

     

    A while back I really had a lot of respect for what you wrote because you called out TH for the pretender he was based on his activities at Siemens. You noted that long before others: in retrospect I wished I had paid more attention: THAT was based on reality, and I ignored it. I really thought you had a good handle on things.

     

    I've lost that respect for your opinions because you won't apply the same logic to give JC the benefit of the doubt based on what he accomplished at Sybase. In fact, you have gone out of your way to comment that JC is no different than TH, suggesting he's basically a free-loader coming along for the joy-ride of a golden parachute somewhere down the line. Where's the logic in that?

     

    That dissonance regarding how you comment on the CEO, the reality that you've never used the devices, and the fact that you are willing to share your "insights" regarding the certain demise of BBRY to >30,000 people based on garbage data is irresponsible, borders on unethical, and shows a bias against BBRY that needs to be called out. It makes me wonder whether your comments regarding TH were really made out of a desire to educate others, or were simply easy fuel you could add to the burning of BBRY.

     

    I would like to believe what you write. The perspectives of others are valuable when balanced and able to separate good data (like TH's background) from crappy data (like IDC, or the phones being terrible). As long an opinion is based on thin air, I'll be more than happy to call it out for the senseless bashing it is.
    30 May 2014, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    MPF,

     

    "A while back I really had a lot of respect for what you wrote because you called out TH for the pretender he was based on his activities at Siemens. You noted that long before others: in retrospect I wished I had paid more attention: THAT was based on reality, and I ignored it. I really thought you had a good handle on things."

     

    But don't you see? This was backwards looking too, the very thing BlackBerry bulls criticize us bears of today.

     

    Yes, we bears do look back at the past mistakes of a company, this is how we gauge the likelihood of success going forward.
    30 May 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • MPF94025
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    @BBwetrust

     

    Part of BBRY's problems now, in fact a big problem, is a very negative public image. It's time to start calling out those who bash the company simply for fun or because they have an ulterior motive.

     

    In the past week, we've learned that several constant BBRY devices bashers have never touched the phones. I'm not debating them. I'm calling them out.

     

    I despise those comments as much as I despise TH for promising that the Q10 would sell tens of millions of devices.

     

    There needs to be some level of public accountability or people get hurt, whether it be by irresponsible CEO's like TH (who I frankly believe deserves jail time), or SA contributors like @AH, @KIA, @StormanNorman, @Philip Marlow, etc, and a growing list of individuals who have no problem talking about how the company's products are terrible when their knowledge is non-existent.

     

    The only way the company's image is going to change is when there is realistic discussions about the pros and the cons. The BS opinions need to be called out for the fraud they represent.
    30 May 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19451) | Send Message
     
    As you know I am short, so what do you expect? Besides, I really do find John Chen to be a Thorsten Heins in a different suit and I really do find Blackberry absolutely irrelevant, including BES or QNX. Saying otherwise would be schizophrenic, a lie. I truly believe this company must vanish. If you disagree, that's perfectly ok.

     

    Overall, I would say that only through contrarian opinions, even verging on ridicule, one can sharpen one's own thinking to come to a conclusion.

     

    Happy investing!
    30 May 2014, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    MPF,

     

    "In the past week, we've learned that several constant BBRY devices bashers have never touched the phones. I'm not debating them. I'm calling them out."

     

    "when their knowledge is non-existent."

     

    A silly straw man argument MPF, and quite frankly beneath you.
    I hope you can return to making intelligent posts that provoke thoughtful discussions instead of this silly "you must use a BB10 device to comment on it."
    30 May 2014, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @MPF
    I say you embrace the traditional American spirit down to the core. When you see something not right or injustice exists you stand up and speak out. It takes a lot of time and effort to do what you did. My salute to you.
    30 May 2014, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @AH
    You said, "...I truly believe this company must vanish".

     

    That reveals you more as a person than anything else. I feel sorry for people with such vindictiveness. What did Blackberry do to you that you declare that it must vanish so you can make a few dollars more, or in your case a few Euros more?
    30 May 2014, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19451) | Send Message
     
    I want to profit; sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. That's all there is to it.
    31 May 2014, 03:24 AM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    KIA -- Yes, a big part of BlackBerry's prowess in the enterprise is from their legacy BES 5 installations. I didn't start paying much attention to this issue until Q4 in 2013, when BB said it had 80,000 customers in total, and that 30,000 of those had upgraded to BES 10 or were in the process of testing BES 10. At the time of the most recent conference call, we heard a repeat of the 80,000 total number of customers, but that there were almost 3,000 extra BES10 customers, bringing the total number to 33,000.

     

    In fact, since February (or January?) of 2013, when BB introduced BES 10, BES10 has been adding customers at the rate of 2,000 per month. E.g, by mid-May/13, BB had 12,000 BES10 customers. Eleven months later, BES10 has ~33,000 customers.

     

    A few months ago I did some research into the numbers of customers for AirWatch, MobilieIron, and Good. Sorry, no links, but AirWatch had close to 11,000 at the time of its acquisition by VMware, MobileIron had close to 9,000, and Good had no more than 8,000. Adding all 3 numbers did not equal BB's 30,000 in FYQ3/14. Simply put, BB has a massive presence in MDM through BES10 alone, even if they lose 50% or more of their remaining BES 5 customers. This of course seems extremely unlikely right now, given the fact that the 80,000 number has held steady for the past six months, and that the number of BES10 conversions has grown at a vary steay pace for close to 16 months.
    31 May 2014, 03:33 AM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    KIA -- just discovered I'd had a dyslexic moment in naming the # of MobileIron customers. At the end of 2013, they had 6,000, not 9,000. http://1.usa.gov/1hKh8R4 The link is to their S-1 IPO registration statement.
    31 May 2014, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    Yasch22,

     

    I'll give you BlackBerry's dominate position in the MDM market. And I also believe BlackBerry's MDM is good.
    But my research (largely by osmosis) tells me that BlackBerry has fallen from favor, and while MDM may piddle along, it's simply not enough to sustain BlackBerry.

     

    This is like Home Depot trying to survive by selling screwdrivers and garbage cans; it's simply not enough.

     

    My view of BlackBerry isn't MDM or Stickers .. it's more along the lines of: Can this company with 8,000(?) employees and a significant cash burn rate survive.
    1 Jun 2014, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    CEO says cash burn will evaporate this fiscal year.
    1 Jun 2014, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @KIA
    8000 people. How many people per "pillar" to hold BB up? The new BB is supposely to have 4 pillars.
    1 Jun 2014, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    Mr. KIA,

     

    The fact that BB right now has a mere 26% of MDM market share might explain why your osmotic research is suggesting that BB has fallen from favour. Three years ago, companies like AirWatch, Fixmo, Zen, and MobileIron were startups, and even Good Tech, which has been around for a fair sight longer, has grown considerably since 2011. Add to that the growth of a number of more established companies, and we have a situation where a mighty monopoly has fallen to the "lowly" status as "dominant player."

     

    My only interest in BB's MDM business right now is what the numbers show since last November, when John Chen took over. So far, the evidence shows that BES10 registrations have grown considerably, and that BB has been able to maintain a list of 80,000 clients since December of 2013. We don't know how many new BES10 customers converted from BES5, and how many have come to BES10 from other companies, but we should get a better sense on June 19. The main point is that the MDM pillar appears to have been stabilized. Also, for whatever reason, margins in this business are very good for BlackBerry, and poor for companies like Good and MobileIron. Even if BB finishes with no more than, say, 50K customers, this division alone should be worth the equivalent of 4 or 5 AirWatches, especially once all the promotional pricing gives way to business as usual in early 2015.

     

    Your analogy with a hardware store doesn't quite work for me. If BES = Tools & Garbage Cans, then we need to know that T&GC have always supplied BB with the highest margins of any branch of its business. BB can chop off the other 3 branches of its business and still contend with some ease for the heavyweight champion of the MDM arena. That is, IF BES 12 delivers what BB is promising for it right now, and IF BES 12 can incorporate Windows Phones into its stable of managed devices.

     

    Personally, I think Good is in serious trouble right now. MobileIron is hanging on by the skin of its teeth, and will have to start adding new customers soon to make up for lost revenue from all those customers who bought their perpetual licenses, and also to figure out a way to turn a profit for the first time in their life. BB meanwhile is getting better month by month. John Sims is whipping that business into great shape (Sims in my view is the #1 heir to the throne right now), and I feel he'll have BB firing on all cylinders come November. If companies like Good & MobileIron don't get their IPO's done in the next 5 months they'll start hemorrhaging customers back to BlackBerry.
    2 Jun 2014, 02:44 AM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    Cash burn? LYogi reminds us that Chen has been promising the cash burn stops by early 2015. Here's my take on the specifics of how that's going to happen:
    1. BBM division: Stickers are just the beginning. This month, BBM Protected for enterprise will be introduced, and after an introductory free period customers will pay a quarterly fee. Then add revenue via sponsored channels. If nothing else, the BBM division should be revenue neutral by early 2015.

     

    2. QNX: revenue is not broken out, but it's accounted for under "Software and Other." My view is that QNX already accounts for at least half of software revenue, and that it's been growing steadily since 2010. We're not talking huge amounts of money here, nor about huge margins. But (and this IMO is a killer argument) I'll be a monkey's uncle if QNX is not already profitable for BB.... Another part of the revenue in this sector is from BB World. Paid apps offer good margins, but I suspect revenue has been going down here. The trend across all app stores is a reduction in downloads of paid apps. Also, number of BB subscribers has been going down steadily since 18 months ago.

     

    3. Hardware. This has been the single biggest drag on BB's financials for the past two years. The lion's share of the losses for the past year have come from reductions in handset revenue. BB will be paying $200m less per quarter for royalties starting in November of this year (not sure what the details are). Also, the Foxconn deal is supposed to fix this problem, but I'm pretty sure BB needs to maintain sales of 10m handsets per year in order to break even, and we'll see if that works out.

     

    4. BES/BIS. An awful lot of people are hanging onto their old BBOS phones, and it was a bit of a shock to see demand was great enough for BB to order another production run of BB7's through Wistron, but the monthly service revenue (BIS) from non-enterprise consumers will eventually disappear. 2 or 3 years from now? Who knows? Meanwhile, BB will be trying to make up for that lost service revenue via BES 12 -- and it's hard not to be hopeful here. I'm guessing that BES brought in somewhere between $150 and $200 million last quarter.

     

    There should be one last hit this quarter, too, from the CORE program. Chen said during his recent CNBC interview that job cuts were pretty well done with. Last quarter, the CORE charge was $148 million. My guess is that it was about half that in Q1, and that Q2 won't see any CORE charge at all.

     

    So, add it all up. BB needs to wipe out cash burn of $400m from Q4/14. By the end of Q415,
    1. Less $200 million in royalties.
    2. Less $150 million from CORE expenses.
    3. BBM division paying for itself.
    4. Software (QNX, BB World, Certicom licensing, etc.) making a profit.
    5. Hardware, thanks to deal with Foxconn, close to breaking even.
    6. BES, already profitable, making even more money with conversion to BES 12.
    2 Jun 2014, 03:39 AM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    @Yasch22,

     

    To add to your points, from a functional point of view, BES beats all its competitors.

     

    Depending on the corporate ITs perceived security risks and solutions offered in the market, BlackBerry can carve a niche geared towards highly regulated security conscious verticals, which is a premium market. Over the managed device services, add the applications services where BBM Protected can offer meaningful value by adding at least 20-30% to the basic ARPU. From what I've read, John Chen wants to be more than MDM. He wants to develop an app ecosystem for enterprises geared towards security & productivity...same way as SAP operates. That's potentially value-adding.

     

    BlackBerry can leverage the BES security in the IoT framework through offering compelling value to enterprises to move from a private to a public cloud. That can save $$ over the years for enterprises. I've researched Splunk, Ayla Networks & Xively. All three are competitive players. Their offerings are commoditized and the only place where BlackBerry significantly differentiates is security.

     

    Whilst Google focuses on a Smart home, BlackBerry's Project Ion can cut across a spectrum of verticals looking for ways to save $$ on replacing on-premises & private cloud with a highly-secure public infrastructure. This I believe can return BlackBerry to its glory days.
    2 Jun 2014, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • Zack 800
    , contributor
    Comments (2191) | Send Message
     
    @BBwetrust

     

    I couldn’t agree more...much respect to MPF!
    2 Jun 2014, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    @MPF
    I hope you take no offence to what I said if you are a Canadian. If indeed you are a Canadian, then substitute the word "American" with "Canadian". I think the idea is the same about speaking out against unjust accusations or conditions.
    2 Jun 2014, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    Yasch,

     

    as always, good posts; you got a 'like' from me.

     

    Only a couple comments:

     

    "This month, BBM Protected for enterprise will be introduced, and after an introductory free period customers will pay a quarterly fee. Then add revenue via sponsored channels."

     

    1. How big of a niche do you expect secure BBM to be?
    2. What kind of profitable Channels would make sense for an enterprise?

     

    "Another part of the revenue in this sector is from BB World. Paid apps offer good margins, but I suspect revenue has been going down here. "

     

    Great point. Also, the better the Android Emulator does, the less BB World app revenue. Agree?

     

    "I'm pretty sure BB needs to maintain sales of 10m handsets per year in order to break even, and we'll see if that works out."

     

    While a discontinuance of devices may actually be good in certain respects for BlackBerry, I can see the day they announce "no more devices" as a very dark stock day for $BBRY.

     

    "monthly service revenue (BIS) from non-enterprise consumers will eventually disappear. 2 or 3 years from now?"

     

    Isn't this BlackBerry's legendary secure NOC? If they cannot get Project Ion up and running in a big way, of find another customer for their NOC, does it just get sold off?
    (partially addressed by seeking above/below)
    2 Jun 2014, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    'trooth -- a lot of great points. Here's a handful of follow-ups.
    1. Interesting to think that BB might be aiming for an extra 30-40% ARPU through BBM Protected. If BES gets, say, a 50-50 split between "silver" and "gold" subscribers ($19/year & $60/year), then you're suggesting BBM-P would cost about $12 to $16 per year. Is that the number you had in mind? To me, in fact, $1 per month would be a pretty attractive price. BES has at least 15m subscribers, so $1/month = $15m/quarter = $60m/year.

     

    2. The BES ecosystem. My understanding here is that BES has taken a giant leap here by establishing a partnership with SAP. We don't know the specifics of the deal, but I suspect BB will get a percentage of every SAP Fiori suite of apps adopted by their BES customers. I believe this partnership will soon be recognized as a great move by Chen. No one in the enterprise is going to complain about an "app gap." One of the biggest losers in this part of the game will be Good Tech.

     

    3. Re: security in the cloud, and other growing players in this field. Like you, I did some research into companies like Ayla and Xively, and yeah, they're looking pretty good. But so are a lot of other companies. I thought immediately that BB might be interested in buying out or partnering with one of these players, but they've forged partnerships with Gwava and SAP, and I'm pretty sure they even have an "understanding" with Microsoft re: 365 and their whole suite of enterprise offerings. I'm basing this only on rumours from a couple of months ago that BB and MSFT had a series of meetings in Vancouver, and these rumours soon gave way to announcements by BB that they were going to support Windows Phones in BES and in BBM. All in all, though, I agree with you that whenever security is at a premium for a customer in the IoT, BB will be able to offer QNX Cloud.

     

    4. I'm not so sure about BB's or any company's ability to monetize the IoT, partly just because it's so early in the game. For the analytics vertical, you'd have to think Google will dominate. For OS within appliances/vehicles/dr... & networking infrastructure (e.g., Cisco's routers) etc., it looks as if QNX will be one of the major players, and you can see how they'll monetize through licensing. Security -- through the NOC infrastructure and incorporation of Certicom into BB's cloud solutions and partnerships -- should also be worth a healthy fistful of dollars!
    4 Jun 2014, 03:34 AM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    Oops -- sorry about the truly bad math there. If 15m BES subscribers pay $1/month, then that would equal $45 million per quarter, and $180 million per year! I got a bit too much sun today. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. ;p
    4 Jun 2014, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    Mr. KIA,

     

    1. See my conversation with Seekingthetrooth on $ from BBM. BES has somewhere between 15m and 20m subscribers, and I suspect that BBM will be an extremely popular add-on, especially if it kicks off with lowball prices, as in $1/month. But who knows? It was interesting to read parts of MobileIron's S-1 filing recently: They signed so many customers to perpetual licenses that they need a whole lot of upselling of productivity apps, etc., to make their business model work. So far, they've apparently been able to do that upselling.

     

    2. BB's plans to charge a fee for sponsored Channels, or for other activities connected with Channels, are all still hidden within a conceptual fog. I can only assume that BB hopes to make at least a few million per quarter on this venture.....

     

    3. Yes, BB's gambit regarding "Access to Android apps" is a two-edged sword. BB is probably making less money than before from BB World, and I suspect ported Android apps are part of the problem. But two other parts of the problem are simply that BB subscription numbers are down and that there's been a trend across all app stores away from paid apps to free apps. A third part of the problem is that an amazing percentage of downloads from BB World used to come from PlayBook owners, and BB left those folks in the lurch earlier this year.

     

    4. The money lost from BIS subscribers (e.g., the monthly subscription fee of $2 to $5 paid for push email, etc., that was made possible by the NOCs. The NOCs may be diminishing in importance to the company as a value add-on to BBOS subscribers, but it's gaining in importance to BES subscribers, as it will be connected to BBM-P messaging and to QNX cloud.
    4 Jun 2014, 04:08 AM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    @Yasch22,

     

    For your Point no. 1 & 2 this from Goldman notes:

     

    "Under BES12, monthly ARPU per sub ranges from $1.50- $5.00 for Silver and Gold packages, respectively, down from a range of $2.00-$6.00 (mentioned below) for the legacy BIS/BES service fees. However, the company expects to sell additional features and software enhancements to increase ARPU over time, targeting $10 in monthly ARPU over time."

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    For Point 3:
    1. Consider savings on capital spend & maintenance if enterprises look to move from their firewalled infrastructure to QNX cloud under BlackBerry's lock & key.

     

    Not sure what you mean by analytics in point 4. If by analytics you mean Google SDK, then QNX Cloud is also proposing all the popular platforms to work on.

     

    http://bit.ly/1nNzad7
    4 Jun 2014, 04:20 AM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    'trooth -- thanks very much for the reminders on both links.
    Re: ARPU for BES subscribers, I see that Chen is actually aiming for more than a 100% increase over the $1.50-$5.00 fees.
    Re: cloud services. I just need to be clearer about BB's directions here before I start hazarding estimates about the kind of money they might make. I'm thinking too of the various services "the cloud" can offer: storage, back-up, file-sharing, subscription access to software, access to platform, and then, riding on top of all the other services, networking of the servers gathering info from every field relating to the IoT (from sensors along transportation routes, usage monitors on appliances, usage data from mobile phones, etc.) and then data analytics on top of that. Alec Saunders gave a small example of this highest function of the cloud at the O'Reilly Solid conference, but as soon as I saw that example I thought, "The way QNX will make money from this is by integration of its RTOS into as many component parts of the IoT as possible. In other words, QNX can gain its share of the pie by becoming an essential part of the IoT's language. However, when it comes to the kind of money that can be made through the gathering, storage, and analysis of all the massive amounts of information, I see that going to the companies with much larger piles of money and already have big stakes in this area.

     

    BB has several different connections to the cloud, or several different configurations through different needs: Storage/backup of eBBM in enterprise (some of this is through Gwava, & some through QNX Cloud); SAAS through SAP; some infrastructure as a service through their NOCs; and so on. I've just recently started trying to figure all of this out, and that no doubt can become painfully obvious at times to some of you who are more familiar with the tech involved.
    4 Jun 2014, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    Yasch,

     

    BlackBerry plans to offer everything that a cloud can offer - storage, processing, development etc. The key differentiators, I believe are:
    1. QNX - compelling in terms of utilizing lesser computing resources, highly reliable, scalable & real-time.
    2. Bandwidth optimization.
    3. Security good enough to migrate to public infrastructure.

     

    I found a leading player in M2M Cloud - Axeda. These guys are good.

     

    http://www.axeda.com

     

    Verizon thinks security is key for M2M adopting Cloud-based solutions.

     

    http://vz.to/1ujTFxH
    4 Jun 2014, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    trooth

     

    "BlackBerry plans to offer everything that a cloud can offer - storage, processing, development etc."

     

    This is the domain of Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.
    How can BlackBerry compete here?

     

    To support your superior cloud claim, you reference the following:

     

    "1. QNX - compelling in terms of utilizing lesser computing resources, highly reliable, scalable & real-time."

     

    You do realize that QNX will not be running on the cloud server right?
    It was determined in another thread that what BlackBerry probably meant in their "powered by QNX" claim was that the servers would be running a standard enterprise class server OS (like Windows) and be running some services written by QNX Systems. These are very different things.

     

    "2. Bandwidth optimization. "
    I highly doubt BlackBerry can offer anything in cloud-bound Bandwidth optimization that Amazon, Google, and Microsoft haven't already thought of.

     

    "3. Security good enough to migrate to public infrastructure."

     

    Not exactly sure what you are saying here.
    If you are suggesting that BlackBerry will have a security protocol for cloud-bound traffic that is more secure than that of Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, I would like to see something to corroborate that assertion.
    5 Jun 2014, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    @Mr. Knowitall,

     

    All the points can be addressed here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1oyNceD

     

    Though dated and bad call by the analyst, underlying QNX fundamentals intact and relevant around hardware & bandwidth efficiency & security.

     

    As for cloud infrastructure, BlackBerry cannot compete with Google or Amazon but Saunders said he's partnered with an undisclosed provider.

     

    I shared an NSA doc on security in a previous comment.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1nU2kr8
    6 Jun 2014, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • BigGeneral
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    BBRY's value is next to nothing in five years.
    28 May 2014, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Ftech
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    Unlike your comments value, went next to nothing in less than 5 minutes
    28 May 2014, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • BBwetrust
    , contributor
    Comments (2882) | Send Message
     
    See you in five years. No point to quarrel here.
    28 May 2014, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • MPF94025
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    @BigGeneral, sure, if you believe the IDC report from Wednesday. That report did not take into account the possibility that BES 10/12 will retain a significant number of enterprise users with EZPass program, BES 10/12 adoption over next few months. I'd' also guess you've never used the Z30, latest software update, running BBRY 10 OS and Android. Please share if otherwise.
    29 May 2014, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • NPetersen
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Five years?
    And here I believed the bears when they told me that BBRY would be gone in 2013. If the company is still in business in five years, its current value will seem like next to nothing; the share price might not reflect that.

     

    Without knowing anything about you, there is a chance you will turn bullish on BBRY in two years.

     

    All the best in your investments.
    29 May 2014, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Cochise54
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    These Chen comments are good, very good indeed.
    28 May 2014, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Roll up the RIM
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Prem gave him a tongue lashing after the 50-50 comment, so he had to come out with something a bit more pumpy so his buds can quietly exit their positions.

     

    In all seriousness, there is nothing of substance here, as usual. Next.
    28 May 2014, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    you obviously lack the ability to comprehend what a monopoly on 'end to end' security means in 2014 and beyond!
    28 May 2014, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    LYogi, being one of those unfortunate souls lacking the "ability to comprehend what a monopoly on 'end to end' security means in 2014 and beyond"; I wonder if you would be kind enough to explain it to all of us?
    1 Jun 2014, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    sure: by virtue of their NOCs and encryption Blackberry is the only company that can guarantee secured messenging from sender to receiver via BBM:

     

    For a full read up see:

     

    Microsoft and Cisco both offer secure real-time messaging services, but "they are limited to communications inside an organization, unless you set up a complex federation of servers," White said. "This ability to communicate [securely] inside and outside is critical to a user."

     

    http://bit.ly/1kYKRKn
    1 Jun 2014, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    LYogi,

     

    You claim BlackBerry is the "ONLY company that can guarantee secured messenging from sender to receiver via BBM"

     

    and then you conveniently post a blurb that directly contradicts your statement that states both Cisco and Microsoft can also offer "secure real-time messaging services".

     

    Thanks, that's good to know.
    1 Jun 2014, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    You are correct. BlackBerry is the only company that can offer secure messaging between two organizations and between an organization and the outside world.

     

    You must determine for yourself if that is valuable or not.
    1 Jun 2014, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    That's not what your quote seemed to say.
    2 Jun 2014, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Muggins
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Why don't the bears put their money where their mouth is. If your so certain BBBY is going to fail then short it some more. I sense some panic from the bear side. Chen will turn this around.
    28 May 2014, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • MPF94025
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    Good interview today with JC.

     

    Just about a year ago at this time, TH was doing earnings call and was basically falling apart at the seams. What a difference a year makes. The reader should keep in mind that this year's June earnings report is only about 3 weeks away, so JC should have a pretty good idea of what is going to be reported. He didn't seem distresssed, in fact, seemed to be actually having a good time with the interviewer. (I tried to catch the interviewers name to give him credit for a good interview, but alas it wasn't easily provided on the replay...)

     

    Key points:
    a) JC doesn't know where NY Times got report that Z3 sales were poor. JC said it was doing well, would do well, and that Z3 would be released in several additional countries in a very short time period.
    b) JC reiterated that Z3 is a small part of the overall turnaround picture, a point many who follow BBRY closely clearly understand. It is all about enterprise adoption BES10/12 adoption. No surprise here. Many of us have been saying this for months.
    c) When JC was asked specifically how BES10 adoption was going..
    Interviewer) software and services, the core of your strategy moving forward. the enterprise server product that gives a lot more compatibility between the old blackberry and the new blackberry. how are your efforts going getting large enterprises to adopt that? are they understanding that they can manage ios and android as well as blackberry, your efforts to sort of lure them from other systems? are they working?
    JC) yeah. it's working. i'm going to be able to share some metrics when we do our earnings call later on, so by and large it's working.

     

    This latter part is key as BES10/12 is the battle to win the war from MDM pretenders and a key to the end-to-end security solution that brings BBRY devices back into the picture. Within a few months companies will be able to choose from Z10, Q10, Z3, Q20, Q30, and perhaps even Z50 before too long, not to mention the legacy devices that many still cling to, all functionally active on BES 10/12, not to mention iOS, Android, Windows phones, etc.

     

    For Chen to go from "I've seen this movie" when hired, to "50/50" at last interview, to "80/20" a few weeks before earnings, is promising. We'll see if he is just TH in a different suit, but that's not the vibe he gives off.

     

    The bears have been right more often than wrong over the last few years, hard to argue with that. Seems like a different ballgame now.

     

    Especially interesting is just how many individuals who continually make negative comments on BBRY have not even had a Z30 or possibly any other BB10 device in their hands, let alone extended use. They claim they don't need to do so in order to make informed decisions. Right. Just like the comment above from @Philip Marlow about BBRY coming out with an Android phone: now there is clearly someone with their finger on the pulse of what BBRY offers...

     

    The constant negative comments from individuals who haven't even touched the devices, yet continue to opine on SA and other forums, is an issue JC should take note of...and comment upon...during one of his interviews. While he consistently takes the high road (didn't mention massive hack of iPhones in Australia yesterday), he could score a few points by acknowledging that many who comment publicly about BBRY have never actually touched a BB10 device. Would have been quite easy to mention that when asked how Z3 sales are going. It is not only a fact, but also quite relevant as BBRY works to gain mind-share in the smartphone market and seeks to have individuals reconsider what BBRY has to offer.

     

    Overall trading volume was quite low before the interview. Will see how the stock moves on Thursday with respect to both volume and price.
    29 May 2014, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13519) | Send Message
     
    "JC) yeah. it's working. i'm going to be able to share some metrics when we do our earnings call later on, so by and large it's working."

     

    Woo. Sounds like hedging to me.
    29 May 2014, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Cochise54
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    I don't get comparing JC to TH, think it's nonsensical.
    29 May 2014, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • MPF94025
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    @Cochise54,

     

    I compare the two because I believe that leadership makes a difference; that based on the oversight of the company for the past 7 years one must factor leadership into performance of the company; and that in order to assess BBRY at this point in time one must integrate the value of leadership from JC. If one assumes that all that is happening would have occurred under TH, I would challenge that assumption.

     

    Do hope that makes some sense!

     

    There are too many who judge BBRY as if were still being run by TH. That includes those investing; those following investments; and even consumers who don't really track leadership of the company.

     

    I believe there are many who are not aware that BBRY is a different company than it was a year ago and in large part that is due to Prem Watsa and JC.

     

    Thanks for your feedback and understand that to many who have followed this story the comparison is "old news". For many, including those who continue to bash the stock, unfortunately the brute force method of repetition may finally get it into some of their heads that it's time to take a fresh look at the company. TH gone. Stop bringing up the past. That's the message.

     

    Do hope that makes some sense!
    29 May 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • contrarianwise
    , contributor
    Comments (1320) | Send Message
     
    MPF--
    Excellent comment. In fact it is probably a three or four legged stool--John Chen; CASH; assets; and Prem Watsa, director/bridge loan/financier/insider... know if Prem counted part of stool but was responsible of needed cash infusion after TH debacle.
    Lot of psychologies--fighting past war; association; etc..

     

    But yes I don't think anyone knows the extent of mismanagement by TH and what effect common sense management will have on assets. Like an old car--put a little oil in it--shine it up--runs like new--that is what Chen is doing for BBRY--the assets are there.
    29 May 2014, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • contrarianwise
    , contributor
    Comments (1320) | Send Message
     
    MPF

     

    BUffett always talks about the importance of good management as a key piece of the puzzle.

     

    Munger said Katherine Graham, Washington Post--damn dream--good management, good company, cheap.
    29 May 2014, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Cochise54
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    MPF - Yes and no. As I see it, JC offers a rare dynamic of charisma and actual know-how. Where as TH is no where in sight......other than the culture he may have left behind for Chen to transform.
    29 May 2014, 10:18 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Hub
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs