Seeking Alpha

Treasury yields poised to spring higher according to technician

  • "You must get ready. The long-term bear trend is poised to emerge from hibernation." The all caps message (not repeated here) comes from BAML chief technician MacNeil Curry. He says yields are either already at or fast-approaching levels from which a base should form and then the eventual resumption of the longer-term march upward.
  • For the long bond, the zone to look for is 3.25-3.28% (vs. 3.31% at the moment) and for 10-year paper, the range is 2.34-2.42% (vs. 2.45% at the moment).
  • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL
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Comments (5)
  • leopardtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2007) | Send Message
     
    Agree
    29 May 2014, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2531) | Send Message
     
    Check back over the past 20/25 years. Same thing has been written every year.

     

    Has more money been lost shorting bonds than anything else?
    29 May 2014, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • WisPokerGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (1060) | Send Message
     
    You may be right. And if you are, I'm posed to be the next chump because I doubled down on my TBT investment at $59.70 around mid-day today.

     

    Nice afternoon bounce today but this is a short term trade. If rates bounce up into the mid 2.50%, I'm out with my profit.
    29 May 2014, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • davidshelton
    , contributor
    Comments (327) | Send Message
     
    Why would you own PIIGS 10 years when you can own US 10 year for a similar yield?
    29 May 2014, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • heliskiier
    , contributor
    Comments (1031) | Send Message
     
    I'll wait for a bottom to carve then I make a move. Been watching for it, but it's not here yet.
    29 May 2014, 08:12 PM Reply Like
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