Nimble now -5.8% post-earnings; Street mulls growth, lockup

Up sharply at the open in response to its FQ1 beat and healthy top-line guidance, Nimble Storage (NMBL) has reversed course. The decline comes ahead of a June 11 lockup expiration.

The maker of hybrid flash/hard drive storage systems guided on its CC (transcript) for FQ2 revenue of $49M-$51M and EPS of -$0.16 to -$0.17 vs. a consensus of $48.2M and -$0.16.

The company also mentioned it added 450 new customers (compares with 527 in seasonally strong FQ4), growing its total base to 3K+. However, Nimble only says it has "several" Fortune 500 clients; 200+ clients are within the Global 5000.

Gross margin rose 400 bps Y/Y to 66%. GAAP opex soared 119% Y/Y to $49.9M; sales/marketing, R&D, and G&A spend all saw 100%+ increases. Free cash flow was -$3.3M.

There are now 1.2K+ customers deploying Nimble's scale-out storage software, viewed as pivotal to the company's attempts to break out of the mid-range.

Piper (Overweight) expects the addition of Fibre Channel support to boost sales of a new high-end system. It also thinks only 6M of the 62M shares becoming available for sale post-lockup are held by employees likely to sell.

Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight) praises the price/performance of Nimble's offerings, but also has some valuation concerns. Needham (Buy) remains quit bullish: "For investors wanting to skate where the storage demand puck is going, rather than where it has been, we believe NMBL is the answer."

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Comments (4)
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (4744) | Send Message
    The main concern here seems to be lockup expiration, and SA recently published an article highlighting that for NMBL. Yet my Momentum Mechanism article documents how lockup expiration actually wound up being the catalyst for runaway growth in LNKD. If only investing were as simple as people want to make it... unfortunately, in an environment where money is just paper, it becomes game theory.
    30 May 2014, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Champ investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
    Nimble is one of the best company's in hybrid flash and hardware storage systems and there is no question about it, People who are trying to take this stock down are definitely shorts or they have there own personal reasons.


    Some Definite facts about Nimble -


    Nimble products are way superior then it's competitors, not only Nimble products are disruptive and superior but they sell like hot cakes and there customer base is increasing rapidly - I would say very rapidly,


    Nimble Revenue for the this quarter is $46.5 mil, compared to $22.1 ml in the first quarter 2014, representing growth of 110% year-over-year and they clearly beat Wall street expectation excellently both in terms of earnings and revenue ,


    Charts and technical s are giving a clear signal that this is trading way below level, with the performance pace they are showing inspite of being such a young company,


    Already it's been corrected and trading at low level, see the ratings of the stock it has consensus rating for 57% upside and almost every single analyst has a Buy rating for the stock.


    Nimble will be at least $40 stock sooner then most people can predict


    (MBA in Finance with majors in stocks)
    31 May 2014, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • Pervade
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Champ investor,


    I doubt you know much about investing.
    I also know you understand nothing about technology.


    Nimble product was pretty new and interesting several years ago.


    Now? EVERYONE is doing the same thing.


    Nimble is a long long way from being profitable. They likely never will be.


    They will not last.


    The stock is suffering not because of shorts.
    It is suffering because people are not stupid enough to buy it.


    Looks like you were.
    1 Jun 2014, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • Champ investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
    Mr Pervade,


    You sound like a short and do not teach me about stocks, I guess you have along way to even understand companys and there stock value,
    Whatever I wrote there are true facts and there is not a single lie there,
    Mr Pervade Stop investing and go get a job,
    One more tip buy Nimble you will make some money :)


    Take care
    1 Jun 2014, 02:33 PM Reply Like
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