- "Relative to the past 50 years, this stock market has been abandoned and orphaned even as it had made participants wealthy," writes Bill Smead, drawing on a Howard Gold report showing only 37.7% of global investable assets were in equity at the end of 2012, the lowest since 1959 when records first began being kept.
- Why? The mass movement to fixed income, the trendy move towards wide-asset allocation at the expense of plain-vanilla large-cap U.S. equities, the rise of alternative investing, and the echo-boomers - born between 1977 and 1996 - have been much slower to get married, have kids, buy houses, and invest in stocks than previous generations.
- Smead's prediction: As rates rise over the next 10 years, fixed-income will sour and equity dividend payout ratios will normalize. Further returns from commodities and other esoteric asset classes won't match their once-in-a-lifetime moves from 1999-2012 and investors will lose interest. Rising rates will make LBOs less economic and private equity returns will decline.
- "The lack of affection for US large cap equities will mute declines and reward patient long-duration owners of quality common stocks."
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