Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors tips off early 2015 Model X delivery

  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +6.1%) trade higher after Model X reservation holders receive confirmation from the company on an early 2015 delivery.
  • The first prototypes are expected to roll off the EV automaker's assembly line in Fremont, California this fall.
Comments (65)
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (1230) | Send Message
     
    The TeslaNews of the Day. Another promise and the stock jumps higher.
    16 Jun, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    What excuse are you going to have next to hate the stock if/when they actually deliver the car early next year? You and many others seem to think the Model X is never going to roll out.
    16 Jun, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Is any of this really news?

     

    I would like to see pricing, with options & specifications , before this could be considered news.
    16 Jun, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Vico Confino
    , contributor
    Comments (179) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like you don't believe Elon's promises. Please update me on what promises he has failed to keep.
    I haven't been to a gas station in 18 months with my Tesla 85.
    Am I missing something?
    Vico Confino
    Prophet
    Noble Prize winner
    Teslarian 2012
    Life begins at 81
    16 Jun, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    The letter went to deposit holders so I'm sure they know the price and the options already?
    16 Jun, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Frank,

     

    you need to watch the other news. ISIS is taking over Iraq. Fighting in Ukraine and all those pipelines going from Russia to Ukraine.

     

    The big picture is what is driving the stock price.

     

    In 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, price of oil shot up and the stock price of Exxon, Texaco, Chevron also went up.

     

    Price of gas went up too.
    16 Jun, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (3187) | Send Message
     
    Do they? So far as I know, only a ballpark estimate of "slightly more expensive than the Model S" has been available. That hasn't stopped many people from getting in line and putting their deposit down. I read where someone was surprised that the third seat would be optional and complained that "it was just another way to increase the price of the vehicle", but they didn't make the all-wheel drive optional so that complaint rings untrue. If you search for "third seat optional" you will find that many SUVs offer the third seat as an option, not standard. The point though, is that people laid down deposit money without knowing what options were going to be available and what was standard.
    16 Jun, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Banker,

     

    If the price and specification along with options were available, do you think it really could be kept a secret? You don't think somebody would have gotten a copy of it "Out There?"

     

    Was the letter magically encrypted so it could not be analyzed by the press or posted on the internet?

     

    Seriously?
    16 Jun, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    It was a question.

     

    It wasn't a press release so I'm sure the press doesn't have one of the letters. Who cares. I just want to see the vehicle delivered as promised so the bears can find something else to bitch about.
    16 Jun, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (518) | Send Message
     
    @surfer,
    Yeah, I guess Ukraine can burn some Teslas to keep themselves warm during the cold winters :)
    16 Jun, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (518) | Send Message
     
    This proves that their Model S pipeline is completely empty! So, they are now forced to move the model X deliveries earlier, to survive few more months.
    16 Jun, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    So when the Model S is selling strong it's ok to push out the Model X but now that Model X is coming out soon it MUST be because TSLA is failing to sell the Model S?

     

    You will never give the company any credit for anything. You will always paint the doom and gloom scenario every chance you get.

     

    Model S sales are very strong and will stay that way.
    16 Jun, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • cparmerlee
    , contributor
    Comments (1552) | Send Message
     
    Banker wrote "Model S sales are very strong and will stay that way."

     

    We shall see about that. And we shall also see if Musk uses this hyped up price to raise some more cash while he can.

     

    It is probably no coincidence that they are planning another empty hype event (a fake giggle factory groundbreaking) right about the same time they have to disclose another batch of their non-GAAP accounting. This is why about 90% of my options are for at least 60 months out. Nobody is better at leading the media around then Musk, but eventually the facts catch up.
    16 Jun, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Water Brothers Financial Co...
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    I guess I continue to fail to understand why the media and shareholders are so taken with Musk. Usually a six month delay in a multi-billion dollar essential project would destroy a growth stock. The patent release is so apparent in that the patents are not really worth much. The total number of cars sold continues to make each car sold a million dollar plus added value to market cap. The fact that other companies really do have new, running battery factories belies the unique and solitary story tesla and tesloans told for so long. The fact that Bmw i8's are backlogged a year. The fact that Musk has never made a dime of profit at any co. yet. And still we sit at the market cap of fiat, half of nissan, 60% of Ford. Any good news for ten years is way priced in, any failures not considered. The most important element is that this is a story stock with sizzle in a market that is way in bubble territory - no matter what all the paid commentators try to alibi away- and in that environment and that enivronment alone, can this stock stay near here.
    You get it, I get it, we know that when you pick up the wall Street Journal Jan . 1 2018 this is not a 220$ stock. Nor will their annual sales be anywhere near the vaunted 500k in vehicles then either. How much premium did you pay for 5 year out Leaps? Keep up the good work of being a sane voice in the wilderness.
    16 Jun, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    "90% of my options are 60 months out"

     

    how did you work that? There are no 60 month options available to retail investors.
    16 Jun, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Jenner
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    One promise I'm really excited about, that is a bit late, is the battery-swap idea. That was supposed to be ready at the end of 2013. I think the Model S was late too. And the Model X has actually already been delayed several times, but I think that is well known. And I think the Supercharger network hasn't quite rolled out as he'd said it would. Also Tesla never made any of the base Model S cars, and they never delivered a sub-$50K MSRP key that was promised. The average Tesla Model S sells for about $95,000, which is quite a bit more than the original promises about this car were from a pricing standpoint, but I suppose that is just a function of the folks who can afford this car wanting all the options.
    16 Jun, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    The facts took the company from $30 to $265. You're on the wrong side of the market. You're going to be on the wrong side forever cause your attitude is not open to the long side at all. Every great trader is prepared to go both long and short. Your attitude is 100% short no matter what good news comes your way. Keep shorting it. We need someone to buy the stock at the new highs that are coming soon.
    16 Jun, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2072) | Send Message
     
    "I guess I continue to fail to understand..."

     

    Water Bros., I guess that's because everything else in your post is false or misleading.

     

    1) There is no 6-month delay in the gigafactory, contrary to some news reports.

     

    2) Tesla's patents cover a car that no other company in the world has come close to matching, or even announced. The most acclaimed car design in history is worth more than "not much."

     

    3) Tesla's market cap divided by number of cars sold is irrelevant for a company growing at Tesla's extraordinary rate.

     

    4) No other company in the world has a battery factory of the type and scale that Tesla plans.

     

    5) The BMW i8 is no threat to Model S sales, because it is much more expensive and less capable, and certainly no threat to the Model X or Gen3.

     

    6) Tesla is a cash machine operating at 25% gross margin (28% projected by year end), but no intelligent investor wants that cash paid out as profit rather than plowed into continued growth.

     

    7) None of the companies you mention (Fiat, Nissan, Ford) nor any other automajor will increase their production by 40% in the next six months like Tesla plans (from 700 to 1000 cars per week).

     

    8) Tesla's growth in the next 10 years is far from priced-in now, because that growth is exponential. Take a look at an exponential curve.

     

    9) "Bubble territory" is what bears said last year when the stock was at 100. I read it in this forum. Where were you?

     

    The fact that you call cparmerlee a "sane voice" for claiming she bought leaps that don't exist says a lot about your level of analysis. Please short the stock or increase your short.
    16 Jun, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Peter JA,

     

    Please help explain to us about how much of that hopeful 40% sales growth you are referring to, is already priced into the stock, and then some.
    16 Jun, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2072) | Send Message
     
    XLS, I don't know and don't care. But I know that the 1000% sales growth in the next few years is not priced in, because even that growth is only the beginning.
    16 Jun, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Wow,

     

    It went from 40% to 1000% that fast?

     

    That's nuts!

     

    But are you sure it's sustainable at that level?

     

    Methinks for that kinda growth, the Fed will have to print a lot more Rich People.
    16 Jun, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2072) | Send Message
     
    "It went from 40% to 1000% that fast?"
    40% (700 to 1000 per week) in the next six months. 1000% (35k to 350k annually) in the next few years.

     

    "That's nuts!"
    No, that's exponential growth.

     

    "But are you sure it's sustainable at that level?"
    By the time Tesla is selling half a million cars annually, global car sales will be 100 million annually. So Tesla's share will be half of one percent. But no, I doubt Tesla will sustain that level. They will increase it.

     

    "Methinks for that kinda growth, the Fed will have to print a lot more Rich People."
    Methinks you have no clue how many rich people already exist (http://bit.ly/UGVHf7) and how many people can afford a $35k Gen3 with low fuel and maintenance cost.
    16 Jun, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Just where is this $35K miracle car?

     

    Do you have pics?

     

    Specs?
    pricing?

     

    a prototype?

     

    Production capacity?

     

    Cap-ex required?

     

    Gross Margin figures?

     

    Supply chain contacts in place?

     

    Competitor's plans?

     

    Or is it just a dream?
    16 Jun, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2072) | Send Message
     
    "Just where is this $35K miracle car?"

     

    Tesla has been planning for a third-generation car (now estimated to start around $35k) since at least 2006.
    http://bit.ly/11oGbmk

     

    They delivered the Roadster, the Model S, and soon the Model X (and DemandLogic). They delivered over 100 Superchargers worldwide so far,
    http://bit.ly/QpV8An
    and hundreds of stores and service centers.
    http://bit.ly/Wjuade

     

    Do you have any evidence that suggests they won't deliver the Gen3?
    Or is that just your dream?
    16 Jun, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    The 40% sales growth is not priced into the stock. The reason? The bears don't believe it will happen. With the short interest as high as it is, hitting the 40% growth in sales will help many bears cover. We do not need a lot of new bulls to enter the stock to send it to $300. We need the bears to cover.

     

    Most investors don't take short interest into consideration. With TSLA at 25% short interest, that is a HUGE buy-back that needs to happen. That buy-back doesn't cost TSLA a penny. If the average stock has 3-5% short interest then that can be ignored. But at 25% short interest that cannot be ignored.

     

    So your sales growth expectations are never going to be baked in already. Too many shorts disagree so when positive news comes out the bears run for cover.
    18 Jun, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    The bears think everyone looks at the stick price and decides to buy looking at the sticker. Most people are smart enough to factor in gas and maintenance. When electric savings is taking into consideration, the real price of the car comes down. If the body is aluminum and the motor is expected to get 500k miles on it, the savings really starts adding up based on the longevity of the car.
    18 Jun, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    It is not a matter of whether they believe it is a good value.

     

    It is a simple fact, like it or not.

     

    Only a small percentage of consumers are even remotely close to having the means to buy one.

     

    Until Tesla produces a nice 200 mi range car under $45K, it will be a niche vehicle for the rich.

     

    Most people can't even afford the avg $31K transaction price for a car now.

     

    Despite near zero interest rates, they are stretching loans out to 7 years.

     

    Does not even matter if it was free to operate, if they can't afford to acquire it in the first place.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1g7QmAR
    18 Jun, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    I'm a banker. I know what people can afford. Yes, most cannot afford a TSLA but it's certainly not a rich man's vehicle in CA where the income is much higher than most states and gas is higher too.

     

    The key still remains. 100% of the TSLA cars rolling off the line are sold in advance. With a 25% margin, TSLA can lower Model S pricing to keep it rolling. Each additional car produced helps pay for the R&D from the past so there is no reason TSLA cannot lower the price of Model S when needed.

     

    It's premature to talk about lowering the Model S price. When the delay to deliver drops to 30 days we might see a lot more demand. They can also get rid of the deposit to increase demand. Some people don't want to put down a deposit for something they can take delivery of and they also don't want to wait 90+ days to get the car.
    18 Jun, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2072) | Send Message
     
    "Until Tesla produces a nice 200 mi range car under $45K, it will be a niche vehicle for the rich."

     

    Over 12 million millionaires exist in the world, according to the Wikipedia link I gave you before. That niche keeps hundreds of luxury goods companies in profit, including a dozen luxury car companies. If only ONE PERCENT of the niche decides they want the best and safest car in the world, instead of a Merc or BWM or Audi or Lexus or Porsche, then Model S sales will quadruple from this year's guidance. That's a big niche to fill, even before the Gen3 starts eating the lunch of GM, Ford, Toyota and VW.

     

    But Tesla has already eaten far more than 1% of the markets it has entered so far. You claimed to have "done the math" but apparently missed these numbers:
    http://bit.ly/1hDLrdA
    18 Jun, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Sure,

     

    And meanwhile the competition will stand still, LOL
    21 Jun, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Stock is jumping because the price of oil will jump in a few days.

     

    Has anyone been watching the news.

     

    ISIS in Iraq.

     

    Russians fighting Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine.

     

    All those pipelines going from Russian thru Ukraine to western Europe.

     

    Wanna guess what will happen?
    16 Jun, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    I thought about the same thing for both SCTY and TSLA over the weekend. These mini-wars show us all we need to get the hell away from oil and natgas. The economy doesn't matter. You can have a great economy and then without oil be left with a depression. It's time to make the switch to solar panels and electric vehicles. Buy a greenhouse if you have the space and grow your food while you're at it. It's getting annoying to see 10+ years in Iraq and they still can't get their act together.

     

    As far as I'm concerned, the fighting in Iraq/Ukraine is great news for alternative energy and electric vehicles.
    16 Jun, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    People that buy $100K cars, do not concern themselves very much with the daily and/or short term price swings in gasoline prices.

     

    If that is the belief, that such alone will drive sales, that would not be a very good excuse.

     

    Meanwhile I'm sure the Model X will be a very nice, high quality, premium SUV for those that have acceptance of it's limitations in both Range & price, albeit a very expensive one, accessible to only a very small percentage of American and global consumers alike.

     

    If fact fewer avg Americans can even afford average $30K cars anymore, with loans on those often being stretched out to 7 years, in record numbers as of late.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1g7QmAR

     

    http://usat.ly/K6x5Gd

     

    http://bit.ly/SNY6Tn

     

    http://bit.ly/1p9kB1N

     

    http://bit.ly/SNYAsw
    16 Jun, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Just because someone has $100 million in the bank does not mean they will get annoyed when price of gas goes up 30cents a gallon.

     

    Rich people are just as sensitive to price increases as poor folks are.

     

    By getting rid of the gasoline powered engines, banks will feel safer in giving out 7 year loans for new cars. Also if those cars are made out of aluminum, then rust is not an issue.

     

    Car loans will eventually go out to 10 years if engine replacement and rust is not an issue.

     

    Also, you first sell your concept product to rich folks and work out the kinks there. When the kinks are fixed, the poorer folks come next and then you make a real killing.

     

    Elon was and is on the right track.
    16 Jun, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • fan of the underdog
    , contributor
    Comments (662) | Send Message
     
    1980xls,

     

    Tell that to the 15% of Tesla owners who switched from a Prius. Not everyone who buys a model S opts for the 100k version.
    16 Jun, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    fan,

     

    You have emphasized my point.

     

    Tesla customers are not driven mainly by price.

     

    They are driven by their desire to be and/or demonstrate their "Green-ness to the rest of the world, regardless of price.

     

    Among those that share such ideology, only a small portion have the means to do so, by buying a Tesla.

     

    Avg Model S transaction is approx. $95K

     

    Nobody buys a TSLA for austerity, base model or otherwise.

     

    Regardless of options, it is a very expensive car, obtainable for only a very few.

     

    I never said it was neither a good car, nor a desirable car for those that have the means.

     

    Big difference.
    16 Jun, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (813) | Send Message
     
    >Rich people are just as sensitive to price increases as poor folks are.

     

    This is ludicrous.

     

    >the poorer folks come next and then you make a real killing.

     

    Margins are far better on luxury models than economy models.

     

    You can be pro-Tesla without making stuff up.
    16 Jun, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    @dnorm1234.

     

    I live next to the richest neighborhood in Texas ( River Oaks Houston TX ). Those people are just as sensitive to price of gas as anyone else. That is a fact.

     

    Margins may be better on luxury models, but volume is what makes money. Ask Wal-mart, Mc Donalds etc...

     

    This is all simple business and statistics. If you have a business degree and looks at statistics with a cold dispassionate eye, the picture is very clear.

     

    According to Fox news today, ISIS has claimed to kill over 1,700 shiites members of the Iraq military. Pictures are available online.

     

    Should the US still get its energy from that part of the world?

     

    Bill Oreilly would say no.
    16 Jun, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    This is the type of technology that has to be developed and paid for by the wealthy and then refined and mass produced later.

     

    What was Musk supposed to do? Create a cheap electric vehicle for children as a toy and then hope to make it into a golf cart then finally a tiny vehicle that everyone laughs at?

     

    They did it right. They came out with an amazing car everyone would be proud to have in their driveway and they'll work on a cheaper version later. It's great free press. We'd all be complaining if they started with a cheap vehicle and worked their way up.
    16 Jun, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Surfer,

     

    It's not a matter if they get "annoyed" by rising gas prices.

     

    It's a matter of whether they will alter their spending habits and purchase decisions.

     

    Guess what?

     

    They won't. The rich will still enjoy life either way.
    16 Jun, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    You're wrong about that. Rich people watch their money just as closely as poor people do. Some of my clients are wealthy and crazy penny pinchers.
    16 Jun, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    And the rich have every right to be penny pinchers.
    16 Jun, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    Savings on gas are a huge part of the value proposition in buying a Tesla, they even have a savings calculator on their website for that exact purpose. The more expensive gas is, the more a Tesla makes sense. When they release their $35-50k model this will be even more true.
    16 Jun, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Baker,

     

    It's not "when" they come out with a $40K car with a 200 mi range, it's "If" they can produce an electric car better than is already out there in that price range. A car that is still an object of desire as is the Model S, not just another "Nerd" car as are most offerings in the $30K price range now.

     

    That's the big "If"

     

    A 15% smaller car does not equal a 50% drop in price.

     

    Never has, never will.

     

    Just look why most automakers have abandoned compact/mid-size P-U trucks.

     

    Because the measly 10% lower price vs full size, proved not to be worth the sacrifice in capabilities in the marketplace.

     

    GM is about to re-enter that market. While I'm sure they will be very nice trucks, they will not cost 50% less than their full size brethren.

     

    I guarantee it.
    16 Jun, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3122) | Send Message
     
    "People that buy $100K cars, do not concern themselves very much with the daily and/or short term price swings in gasoline prices."

     

    Sure they do. If you have the cash (and avoid financing) and can buy a low-end TSLA upfront for $70K, you'll save a ton of cash over the next several years on fuel costs. Guaranteed. Remember, the alternative is a premium gas-hogging BMW, Audi, Lexus or Benz.

     

    It's a smart financial decision for those who like to plan wisely.
    17 Jun, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Anton Wahlman
    , contributor
    Comments (736) | Send Message
     
    @ 1980XLS

     

    The reason you make a smaller truck (GM's new model this year) and a smaller car (examples found in every single company), is that some people want a car that's easier to park and move around in a tight/urban environment. It's not just about cost. Space is an issue. Many garages and parking spaces are just too tight for a larger vehicle to be driven comfortably by many people.
    17 Jun, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Anton,

     

    I'm fully aware of that, as well as any reasons for wanting a smaller truck.

     

    That was not my point

     

    Ford Dodge and GM until now, abandoned that market for a reason.

     

    And despite their smaller size, they are not that much less money.
    17 Jun, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (813) | Send Message
     
    >the picture is very clear.

     

    And yet you don't understand that low margin/high volume and high margin/low volume is a trade off, or that the poor are more price sensitive.

     

    >Should the US still get its energy from that part of the world?

     

    How much oil are you actually getting from Iraq, as opposed to, say, from North America?
    18 Jun, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • pat1000
    , contributor
    Comments (459) | Send Message
     
    don't think it warrants such a rise for it may mean a slowdown for the model S
    16 Jun, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (518) | Send Message
     
    Exactly! The model S is done for, it is roadster #2.
    16 Jun, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • winningbasket
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I am a stockholder that got in at $53. I love the car. This a world changing technology and all of the manufacturers that are in alternative methods instead of gas powered are doing something great. Looking forward to retirement.
    16 Jun, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • LamplightC
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Yes, announcing a definite "when" the X will begin being delivered is news. As the build gets closer, demand will increase and so will news about pricing, options and specifications.
    In their email I received as a Tesla X buyer they said, "We’re pleased to confirm that the falcon wing doors will be a defining feature of this exceptional car. Not only do these doors look amazing, but they also make getting in and out of the Model X so much easier than would a conventional front-hinged door. You can even do it standing up.
    We’ll also deliver a level of functionality and practicality that will exceed what you saw on the concept vehicle. We can confirm that all-wheel drive will come standard for Model X, and you’ll have the option to add a third row of seats to carry more passengers."
    What happens to the stock price if Tesla is able to extend the range of the X beyond that of the current S because the batteries are more efficient . . . . or if they get legislation passed that allows 360 degree video instead of rear and side mirrors . . . or get another company like BMW to agree to use Tesla patents to build compatible charging stations?
    Yes, it may be prudent to wait until more of these things are answered . . . or it may be more prudent to get on board now and reap the benefits of those press releases as they are announced.
    16 Jun, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Any battery further advanced technology would have been already deployed in the model S if it were available.
    You would have already heard about it. = No news.

     

    The X will be AWD (always was) and will be both heavier, and possibly have less battery space available as a result. = not news.

     

    Side view mirror legislation if and when approved, will apply to all Automakers and not exclusive to TSLA = Not News

     

    As far as the time frame for the Model X, it's in line = not news

     

    Gull wing Doors have been in pictures over a year = Not news
    16 Jun, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Bonaire
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    Based on the reservation postings on the web site called teslamotorsclub, the rate of incoming reservations has actually slowed down a little bit for both US and Europe. So, put this in the news to try to drum up some more reservations. Without a product price - it's hard to imagine the whole 100% of the order reservation list will convert to a full purchase once that price comes out.
    16 Jun, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • alext1379
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    Price of oil has little to do with people who can afford a $100K car.

     

    Part short squeeze, part peopel being impressed the Model X will be delivered in 2015 instead of 2016.

     

    If it hits and hold $225 then the jump is real, however brief. These aren't new sales, deposits already gave us an idea of how many customers Tesla had for the Model X.

     

    personally, I think this is over done and if it approaches $250, it'll get hammered right back down by shorts and money managers. Remember the stellar crash from $260 t $170 just a month ago? When retail give their heads a collective shake, the price will already be on the way down.
    Insiders already got a $10 jump on retail and when they pull the rug, they'll have a $15 lead on the way down.
    16 Jun, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Anton Wahlman
    , contributor
    Comments (736) | Send Message
     
    I'm guessing the stock was up today mostly on a combination of the higher oil price (Iraq) and positive feelings around the charger talks with BMW, Nissan and most likely also others including Ford et.al.

     

    As to the Model X, I don't think there was much incremental in the email to desposit holders, other than the 3rd row being "optional." Everything else was just as it was said at the February 9, 2012, introduction, and subsequent re-confirmations.

     

    I continue to doubt that the X will ship in serious production volume until much later in 2015. I imagine that any deliveries in the first half of 2015 will be to a small controlled group of enthusiasts -- anywhere from 100 to almost 1,000 -- who will be de-facto beta testers.

     

    Why do I believe that? Because it takes time to test the car, once the final body has been put on the roads. You don't do that in just a few months. Normally, car makers do that sort of thing over well over a year, often 18-24 months. Yes, this might be a little less, but 3-6 months? That would be risky.

     

    I think meaningful production volumes of the X will hit perhaps August-September. People getting the car before that time will be de-facto paying beta testers.

     

    How many final X bodies have you seen being tested on real roads? That's right, zero. Apparently they will be on the roads before the end of 2014. Then you need, normally, 1-2 years to iron out the wrinkles. I guess you can always take a chance, take a shortcut.
    16 Jun, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Bonaire
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    Using the words "early 2015" is as vague as saying "some time after the new year". Months ago, Musk said "volume shipments in Spring, 2015". That is after March 21, 2015. So, sure - start shipping some in late 2014 so he can get his new CEO options given to him for the milestone - then sell a few in Q1 and then hundreds per week in Q2. Nothing about that is news.
    16 Jun, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Anton Wahlman
    , contributor
    Comments (736) | Send Message
     
    @ Bonaire

     

    Can you imagine if GM let a car out too early, after not enough durability testing had been performed? Letting their customers be beta testers? Just sayin'.
    16 Jun, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • marshgre
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    There have been Model X beta sightings in California for almost a year now. I would think calling the first customers "beta testers" is a bit disingenuous.

     

    That said any new vehicle chassis will potentially still have a few bugs that will need to be sorted within the first few months of production. That's why prudent car shoppers usually wait untill a new or significantly redesigned automobile has been on the road for at least one year before committing their money.
    16 Jun, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Anton Wahlman
    , contributor
    Comments (736) | Send Message
     
    @ mashgre

     

    I think you're talking about mules in the Model S body. They have 4x4, higher ride height, slightly different wheels/tires, and a weight on the roof.

     

    But it's not the X body.
    16 Jun, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • fan of the underdog
    , contributor
    Comments (662) | Send Message
     
    anton,

     

    No, actual model X beta test vehicles: http://bit.ly/1bW2GBa
    16 Jun, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Anton Wahlman
    , contributor
    Comments (736) | Send Message
     
    @ fan of the underdog

     

    That looks like that one car from February 2012, where all they did was to repaint it (in time for the January 2013 Detroit auto show), put a new black/white interior, and in this most recent shot add the rearview mirrors so as to allow it to be driven on a public road. It's not the final body of the car, as the final body of the X doesn't exist yet. It's coming soon, so you would see those units on public roads later this year. But not yet.
    17 Jun, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • marshgre
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    @anton

     

    Test mules are the tool that ALL manufacturers use for beta testing new technology. They are using the mules to test the chassis, suspension, and drivetrain. Body shells and their associated components can undergo testing at the design facility. This fall/winter the pre-production prototypes will be in the final testing phase (as well as in house crash testing) leaving plenty of time for the early 2015 first deliveries.

     

    The Chevy Volt drove around for at least a year stuffed in a Cruze mule the pre-production car was tested at the engineering facility for a few months and then early deliveries were made. That is how it works. Tesla is following pretty standard production routes here. They did the same thing with the Model S.
    16 Jun, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Anton Wahlman
    , contributor
    Comments (736) | Send Message
     
    @ marshgre

     

    Of course you drive around in mules. We've all seen those, both with this car as well as with other cars. In the end, however, you still have to integrate the final car. The longer you do that, the higher the probability of catching any problems.

     

    As I recall, BMW tested the i3 for close to two years (plus or minus 24 months) in the final body, before production started in 3Q 2013. You can see the photos from Winter testing in Northern Scandinavia and Summer testing in Spain and Arizona-ish.

     

    I understand you can always take a chance that it all world flawlessly on the first attempt. I get that. But is that the way you really want to do it? I mean, in this day and age of recalls and the like? If I were in charge, I'd want to test the final product plenty, before releasing it to the public.

     

    I sure hope they get the X right, because I want one. It's an excellent design, the best of its kind. But I want it to be tested first.
    17 Jun, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3122) | Send Message
     
    Long CVX, COP/PSX, XOM, pipeline MLPs and TSLA. Triple-digit oil is here to stay and things will only get worse with the middle-east volatility. We will never get away from oil completely, but making strides to take it out of our transportation needs is a great idea.

     

    Between oil spikes and Model X delivery news, TSLA will be a great stock to be in the next several months.
    17 Jun, 09:42 AM Reply Like
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