- Vale (VALE +2.2%) is higher after China reported better than expected June flash manufacturing PMI data, but while iron ore prices may incrementally firm up from Chinese demand, Credit Suisse cuts its iron ore price outlook as it does not foresee any real strength ahead without the kind of broad based stimulus package the current Chinese administration has disavowed.
- The firm now forecasts iron ore to average only $90/ton in H2 of this year, and expects prices to average $89/ton next year and $87/ton in 2016.
- Plus, the big three Australian miners - Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP and Fortescue Metals (FSUMF) - are racing to expand production this year before Vale begins to contribute more meaningfully in 2015, meaning plenty of overseas supply should be expected.
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