Seeking Alpha

Tesla needs a big month to meet its targets, analyst says

  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) has targeted 7,500 deliveries during Q2, but it will need a big June to get there, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson deduces.
  • Barclays estimates that North America deliveries in April and May totaled ~2,400 units, and implies total worldwide deliveries ex-China for the first two months of the quarter of ~3,500 units; if China contributes a modest ~1,000 units for the quarter, it implies that North America and Europe combined need ~3,000 deliveries in June to meet Q2 Model S delivery guidance of 7,500 units.
  • TSLA global sales rallied in the final month of each of the last two quarters, and it appears it will need to do so again.
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Comments (66)
  • Bonaire
    , contributor
    Comments (421) | Send Message
     
    China sales for April are unknown. Reports say 592 for May.
    23 Jun, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    "TSLA global sales rallied in the final month of each of the last two quarters, and it appears it will need to do so again."

     

    The SALES didn't rally in the final month; the DELIVERIES to Europe increased because many cars were on boats in the first two months. Tesla can't deliver cars by rocket, yet.
    23 Jun, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    Tesla has met every one of their goals in the last 18 to 24 months so I'm not worried, but investors who short tsla should be worried.
    23 Jun, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Yesterdays_news
    , contributor
    Comments (1358) | Send Message
     
    You mean like the ones that shorted Tesla on May 5th and made BUCKETS and BUCKETS of money!

     

    Who are rational investors going to listen to, the real sales reports or angry militant cult investors like you? I will give you a hint.
    23 Jun, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3541) | Send Message
     
    "You mean like the ones that shorted Tesla on May 5th and made BUCKETS and BUCKETS of money!"

     

    Buckets of money pales in comparison to the barrels they had lost before.
    23 Jun, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    I've been invested in TSLA since I started posting on these forums about the company, right around December (I bought when it dipped due to the fires). I've seem about 30% returns which ain't buckets of money, but it's pretty good. People who have been long since this time last year have made "buckets of money". Shorts have tiny windows of time where they might have profited.

     

    Maybe someone has a specific post they can point to where they said they initiated a short on a specific date and closed it on a specific date. Failing that, claims that you made buckets of cash on a short position is hot air.
    24 Jun, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • Tippydog
    , contributor
    Comments (2053) | Send Message
     
    Dennis,

     

    There has been a fortune to be made selling volatility in this stock. Huge. On SA, everyone seems to talk only about the the stock up or down, but a huge element of the trading moving this stock is attributable to great swings in the volatility implied in the options pricing.

     

    I have done quite well on the short side of options, mostly selling calls, hedged by small stock ownership and some short puts. But someone else with appetite for taking risk in this stock could have also done great selling puts when the stock has sold off.

     

    Indeed, funds short the stock could have gotten huge yield selling puts against their short position.

     

    There is Wall Street trading game going on here that is independent of all the blather on SA about for Tesla or against Tesla. Many options traders across the Street are keenly aware of Tesla and are trading this just to synthetically create a high yield instrument. This can be done independent of one's view of the company or even the stock.

     

    It is all the more compelling because of the collapse in pricing for volatility in the market generally, together with low interest rates. So generating equity option yield in this stock (or other momentum stocks) becomes very appealing.

     

    The intersection of the fixed income market and the equity market falls in the world of derivatives. And there are great inefficiencies there, and thus opportunity for substantial profit with manageable risk.

     

    This is a trading stock. That is actually part of the risk in just owning it outright long term. Because the pricing moves are greatly affected by investors (or computers) who can not be counted on to continue to own it.
    24 Jun, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • cparmerlee
    , contributor
    Comments (3668) | Send Message
     
    Tippy wrote "There is Wall Street trading game going on here that is independent of all the blather on SA about for Tesla or against Tesla. Many options traders across the Street are keenly aware of Tesla and are trading this just to synthetically create a high yield instrument. This can be done independent of one's view of the company or even the stock."

     

    This is a point that is completely over the heads of most of the people here. This is not true of SA participants in general, who tend to be pretty market-savvy folks. But this little Tesla enclave is dominated by people who have a dream and know very little about the financial/business world.

     

    Most of the money in this stock is institutional. The fund managers don't get into the minutia that is discussed here daily. They do more of that for a value stock, but this ain't no value stock. This is more like a game of "musical chairs". It isn't about where the stock is going long term. It is about not being caught without a chair when the music stops.
    24 Jun, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    No the people who are angry are people like you who MISSED IT when it was in the 30's 18 months ago, so now all you can do is to hate tsla, bad mouth the company, and short tsla in the hope it will come down so you can afford it.
    Anyone who has been involved with tsla as long as I have will attest to the fact that there are Tesla Motors haters out there like you who hate not only the company, but the people who saw the potential in it and invested, didn't short but invested, and you hate them for that.
    24 Jun, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    cparmerlee---being caught without a chair when the music stops:

     

    That could be said about any stock, your either invested or your shorting, in this case I'm invested and have been for almost two years, and I'm laughing all the way to the bank, while I have been listening i.e. reading how many shorters have been crying all the way to the poor house.
    24 Jun, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Bodian
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Institutional ownership has fallen pretty dramatically. It was down to about 40% prior to this latest run. 60% retail. This could prove very negative for the brand if the stock price falls. People who currently see the vehicles through rose colored lenses will start to see flaws. In many ways stock value drives perception of the product itself.
    24 Jun, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • CDM Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (435) | Send Message
     
    Yikes! A ton of hopes and dreams on this stock, investors trying to get rich quick without doing the necessary homework on the fundamentals. Usually spells disaster when investors don't realize the sky high multiples they are paying for absolutely no return on capital, just a business plan (Giga Fac, Model X, etc etc...) and a lot of hype.

     

    Not sure when this one cracks, but when it does the stampede out will be scary for anyone holding the stock...
    23 Jun, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    "without doing the necessary homework on the fundamentals"

     

    You might want to do some homework on the fundamentals that don't show up on a financial statement.
    http://bit.ly/1yH2swG

     

    Especially if you think Model X is "just a business plan."
    23 Jun, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • King Rat
    , contributor
    Comments (725) | Send Message
     
    CDM Capital, how dare you insult the momo prophet du jour?

     

    You do realize that millions of rookie investors have their pride savings 100% invested in TSLA don't you? Your rational thinking risks hurting the feelings of many TSLA holders who could otherwise blame TSLA's coming fall on conspiracies to help themselves sleep better at night.
    23 Jun, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Rat, fact-free sarcasm does not persuade folks looking for facts and logic.
    23 Jun, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • aeroguy48
    , contributor
    Comments (723) | Send Message
     
    Facts, Logic and history says electric cars will go the way of buggy whips.
    23 Jun, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • capitolp
    , contributor
    Comments (678) | Send Message
     
    Not only was is funny but all so true, now I would have said something that would have targeted both stockholders and car owners, Thanks King Rat.
    23 Jun, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • embryorambo
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    King please do not tell the rookies they are wrong. I want them to keep pushing this stock up to the moon, so that i can get a higher cost basis on my short. Let the sheep be sheep brother! Your killing my buzz trying to tell them the truth. We need them to keep walking to their doom like cattle in a slaughterhouse!
    23 Jun, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • aeroguy48
    , contributor
    Comments (723) | Send Message
     
    Facts logic and history will show electric cars will go the way of the buggy whip IMO.
    23 Jun, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (1853) | Send Message
     
    Buggy whips can still be purchased?

     

    http://bit.ly/1lLQD2x

     

    http://amzn.to/1lLQD2z

     

    http://bit.ly/1lLQDiN

     

    Buy electric cars online and buy buggy whips online.
    23 Jun, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • bubba1979
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    yep those of us that bought in the 30s and sold a little at 250, are going to get killed when it rockets to 400 then falls back to 180. I mean we will lose so much ;-)
    23 Jun, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3541) | Send Message
     
    "Facts logic and history will show that oil for transportation needs will slowly go the way of the buggy whip."

     

    FTFY

     

    Long TSLA, EPD, CVX, XOM, COP.

     

    I can't wait for $150 barrel oil. It's coming. TSLA will go to the moon on any middle-east meltdown
    23 Jun, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (1853) | Send Message
     
    @chopchop0. The middle east is melting down. Need to read Foxnews.com to get the truth.

     

    And by the way, Bill Oreilly is behind Tesla Motors. How about that for the shorts.
    24 Jun, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    Its funny, in 2007 people said this same kind of nonsense about investing in Apple. If I'd been a little less cautious then I'd be a lot better off now.

     

    Nonsense like this makes me think I should have more invested in TSLA not less.
    24 Jun, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • cparmerlee
    , contributor
    Comments (3668) | Send Message
     
    Surfer wrote "Need to read Foxnews.com to get the truth. ... Bill Oreilly is behind Tesla Motors."

     

    Why am I not surprised?
    24 Jun, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    Capital---I will admit when Tesla had the fires last year and the stock went down about 50 to 60 points I was holding on for dear life, biting my nails, but guess what, it came back big time especially when Consumer Reports came out and said that the Model S was and is the best and safest car on the road.
    Then Motor Trend came out with pretty much the same report, and the stock went up again. Only yesterday Tesla was in the news from India and the stock went up.
    Every time some good news comes out you guys will get madder and madder because tsla will make you loose more and more money, but that's your choice, just as it is mine to hold on to tsla, and I don't believe tsla will let people like me down, like you wish would happen.

     

    The kind of thinking I hear is like one guy said, "You can't control the weather, so you don't worry about it". These are the kind of deep thinkers out there, but they will without a thought in there heads get in the car and continue to pollute the atmosphere, and at the same time hope they don't get caught in a double twister.

     

    What you guys don't see, don't want to see, or admit to is that every country in the World wants this technology, and they are ready to pay big for it. Do you think that any company in past history knew ahead of time what the value of there company would be before it became common knowledge?
    Do you think that Edison knew his light bulb would be as popular as is became when he invented it?

     

    These inventions took time and patience to get the public involved, and when it happened the flood of orders were breath taking, that will happen with Tesla as soon as they start TV advertising like so many car companies do now.

     

    Just think about the cars on TV now, and how much money they make with these ads, don't you think that will happen one night while your watching TV, and it will knock you off your couch because Elon is not going to tell you when he is going to advertise his cars, but when he is ready..........
    Katy bar the doors.
    24 Jun, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    In several years buggy whips will be more popular than ICE cars.
    24 Jun, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • huskydon
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I can get a great deal in the next few days at the local dealer.....
    23 Jun, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • embryorambo
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    I think it would be hilarious to buy a TSLA with my short winnings once this bubble pops and buy get a license plate that says, SHT TSLA
    23 Jun, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • cparmerlee
    , contributor
    Comments (3668) | Send Message
     
    Embry wrote "I think it would be hilarious to buy a TSLA with my short winnings once this bubble pops"

     

    You will probably be able to pick up a used one for a song at that point too.
    24 Jun, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    I was right, cparmerlee admitted she is shorting Tesla, it's really no surprise to me, but you couldn't tell a few days ago.....not.
    24 Jun, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    Keep dreaming, keep dreaming..........
    24 Jun, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • tech01x
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Wow... look at these shorts that lost money betting against TSLA last year come out of the woodwork.
    23 Jun, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • evalcrux
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    ...with the longs sitting back happy, laughing all the way to the proverbial bank, especially the paper bank. It's nice to contemplate whether to write the check for your Model X P100+ with some of the 7x returns. Maybe wait for 10x? I'll hold out for 100x if my ICE gets me there (not be a carbon hypocrite...especially with the better looking Model X ICE predecessor, hard to give up such a beauty!).

     

    When short arguments become pathetic to the point of humor, you know your investment decisions are sound. 2x per year, easy, ad retirement.

     

    (happy to take some of the short 'winnings' fervor for the longs)
    23 Jun, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • King Rat
    , contributor
    Comments (725) | Send Message
     
    I have long been bullish on the company, made some easy money (long) on the stock, and am out. I will make easy money (again, long) some other time. The emotional attachment so many longs have is sad. Any critical analysis no matter how real, how deep, how worrisome, is taken personally. More worrisome is that such analysis is carelessly dismissed as that of a bitter short.

     

    Look, I made a lot of money on CROX in 2006 and 2007. I stayed in until earnings on Halloween in 2007 and lost 1/3 of my investment overnight. I since changed my investment strategies and tactics to only go long when timing was advantageous to the market.

     

    Let's face it. Most retail-side longs bought into TSLA without due diligence and have gotten lucky. The majority of them would not know if and/or when to sell TSLA for something better and keep holding TSLA in part because they have no system for investing other than the hype that surrounds Tesla.

     

    If Tesla longs really are so smart about investing in general, they should easily be able to pick out 5 stocks that should outperform the market over the next year and give solid fundamental analysis. The truth is that 99% of them cannot.

     

    I hope a lot of current longs keep their profits despite the headwinds approaching, but more importantly, I hope they learn more about the fundamentals of investment beyond picking a momentum stock as if it were a long-term buy and hold.
    24 Jun, 03:10 AM Reply Like
  • shakazoid
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    Could not have said it better
    24 Jun, 04:14 AM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    "Any critical analysis no matter how real, how deep, how worrisome, is taken personally."
    Where is this real, deep, worrisome critical analysis? From CDM Capital I saw shocking ignorance ("Model X is just a business plan"), and from you I saw nothing but sarcastic insults of TSLA longs, and complaints that they take your insults personally.

     

    "Most retail-side longs bought into TSLA without due diligence and have gotten lucky."
    Anyone who thinks Model X is just a business plan has not done any diligence. (Production prototypes are coming in a few months.) Above, I linked an article about four of Tesla's strengths that are ignored by so-called "fundamental" analysis. Not one of them has been addressed by you or any other bear on this page.

     

    "If Tesla longs really are so smart about investing in general, they should easily be able to pick out 5 stocks that should outperform the market over the next year and give solid fundamental analysis."
    I don't claim to be smart about investing in general. I claim to know about Tesla, which is the subject of this page. Detailed research on a company takes time. There is more to it than looking at a few "fundamental" financial ratios. For example...

     

    "I hope a lot of current longs keep their profits despite the headwinds approaching"
    What are these approaching headwinds? In the next six months, Tesla expects to:
    1) Increase production over 40% (from 700 to 1000 cars per week).
    2) Open new markets in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia, and expand the vast new markets in China and UK.
    3) Show production prototypes of Model X, which Elon has promised will be even better than the concept car.
    4) Introduce an all-wheel-drive Model S (if not within 6 months, then in early 2015).
    5) More than double the number of Superchargers in the US and Europe, which is a powerful stimulant to sales.
    6) Increase the number of stores and service centers at a phenomenal rate.
    7) Start construction on the gigafactory to produce batteries for DemandLogic (a stupendous opportunity mostly ignored by TSLA bears) and for Gen3, a mass-market car that no other automaker can match today or with any announced concept car.

     

    If you think these approaching events are headwinds, then your condescending sympathy for longs is misplaced.
    24 Jun, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • tech01x
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    King Rat, you are of course, assuming you are right in your analysis. Further, you are making sweeping generalizations that don't hold up.

     

    As for Tesla, a lot of very good things are about to happen in the course of the next calendar year.
    24 Jun, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    Very, Very well written Pete, and you hit all the points these shorters missed....again. Can't wait for more good news, when that happens the stock price goes up, and SA is like a ghost town.
    24 Jun, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joe. Here's more good news: Elon says autopilot is coming within a year.
    http://bit.ly/Vixegj
    24 Jun, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (1853) | Send Message
     
    Reason the shorts are coming out. Price of TSLA is going up.

     

    Reason price of TSLA is up, IRAQ.

     

    I know you think I am full of Shiite.
    23 Jun, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • SharkDude
    , contributor
    Comments (640) | Send Message
     
    And we still do not care about the fact they lose money on every car they sell. incredible.
    24 Jun, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (1853) | Send Message
     
    It is not losing money that is important now. It is growth of sales.
    24 Jun, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (1916) | Send Message
     
    Tesla longs really are greedy. They are hoping the price of oil rises to make EVs more popular, not caring what would happen to the economy.
    As usual they are wrong. The price of gasoline is not going up its going down! Due to fracking the United States will become self sufficient on oil in the next decade.
    24 Jun, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • chickensevil
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately it is not that simple Frank. Oil is a global product traded openly on the market. This is why even though the US does not get ANY oil from Iran when there was that big discontent with Iran and they stopped shipping out their oil it impacted the price of oil across the world, including in the US. Even if the US got 100% of their oil from itself (which the US actually gets the vast majority of its oil from NA as it is) it would not make the US immune to the overall swings of the market.

     

    Also, here: http://www.oil-price.net
    Since the start of this whole Iraq thing the prices have been going up, so I don't really know where you are getting that the price is going down...
    24 Jun, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • User 7369811
    , contributor
    Comments (188) | Send Message
     
    insideevs.com estimates Model S sales at 1,100 and 1,000 for April and May. hybridcars.com estimates Model S sales at 1,400 for April and May.

     

    My guess is they will meet their projection of 7,500 delivers in Q2 but they've chosen to do this by spreading deliveries around the world instead of selling into their home market.

     

    The power to clear up any speculation either way lies in Tesla's hands.
    24 Jun, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8151) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't matter how they get there as long as they continue to hit or beat their numbers.
    24 Jun, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (1916) | Send Message
     
    Chickenevil
    Yes world oil prices are set by global demand. Still CAFE mpg ratings will rise to 54 mpg by 2025. This will significantly reduce oil consumption. The auto companies will have to meet this with any combination of technologies. ICE, clean diesels, EVs, HF, Hybrids, This will also help Tesla sales. Really exciting times to witness a dramatic change to the largest industry in the world. Who knows? Elon could be right.
    24 Jun, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • chickensevil
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    But at that, they are still anticipating oil prices to continue to rise, and it is pretty sad that one country's discord can upset the entire global market. I don't think it is so much that people want the price of oil to rise so much as people want real energy independence.

     

    http://bit.ly/1jduaY7
    And just because the US is forcing a higher MPG I don't think you are taking into account that the rest of the world is rapidly growing in their use of personal transportation. India and China alone are enough to keep that balance heavily weighted toward a growth on energy and oil usage up to 2030 vice any form of decline.

     

    Our measly 20 million new car market in the US is nothing compared to the 100 million new car market of the rest of the world. Which that number is only expected to continue to grow in the immediate future.
    24 Jun, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • arondaniel
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    "CAFE mpg ratings will rise to 54 mpg by 2025"

     

    I actually hope you are right. But past performance of CAFE doesn't inspire much confidence. In particular that 21 year stretch where the standard for passenger cars stayed at exactly 27.5 MPG.

     

    But 27.5 was apparently too hard to swallow anyway, since automakers started building minivans to reclassify their crappy cars as crappy trucks.

     

    And that awesome sounding "54 MPG" you stated will be in reality more like 38 MPG. It's super neat that you get to measure "CAFE MPG" by hypermiling in ideal conditions.

     

    So you have in the past 11 years very modest gains, automakers moaning, gaming the standards, and in many cases paying fines instead of complying...

     

    ...but in the next 11 years everyone will be cool with increasing the MPG fleetwide average by over 40%. Sure, maybe if gas goes to $8.

     

    By the way, can you guess what automaker has the highest CAFE rating?
    24 Jun, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • infinite1
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    The passion about TSLA is truely amazing. Lot of speculation on both sides. The longs have won, it is now the shorts time. One word. Valuation. It just makes no sense for TSLA to be worth $30,000,000,000 when they have no real possibility of making money for years!
    24 Jun, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • chickensevil
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    This comment has been made repeatedly since the stock hit 30$

     

    What part of "growth company" do you not grasp? Any growth company that is pocketing profits is not a growth company at all... that or they are just doing it totally wrong...
    24 Jun, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • infinite1
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Just placing a label of 'growth company" on Tesla does not justify a unrealistic market cap. Did you watch TWTR ? Yes a growth company, but sooner or later the market corrects it wrongs, and starts to question minor little things like profits. The $100,000 car market is pretty small, even world wide.
    24 Jun, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    "The $100,000 car market is pretty small, even world wide."

     

    The global luxury car market is over 400 billion dollars.
    http://bit.ly/1jeCab9
    Assume 3/4 goes to entry-level luxury cars, and only 1/4 to cars with ASP around $100k. A hundred billion divided by a hundred thousand is one million cars per year. Tesla's current share of that is 35k or 3.5 percent.

     

    This is what is called a growth opportunity.

     

    But of course Tesla's growth opportunity is not limited to $100k cars. There is something called Gen3 coming soon, starting around $35k. The market for Gen3 is roughly half the global car market, which by the time it arrives will be 100 million cars per year. Do the math.
    24 Jun, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8151) | Send Message
     
    Plus the reality that the Model S starts at $70K, not $100K, which means the market is already larger. Throw in actual operating costs and the market size increases again.
    24 Jun, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (596) | Send Message
     
    Frank is wrong as usual and the price of oil will go up whether he likes it or not, because we have just so much oil, and when that's gone we have to find another source. We have found another source, it's called the Sun and that source is unlimited, and we would be fools not to take advantage of it.

     

    The economy will be fine, people will continue to make money (except the shorts) and Tesla Motors will continue to make electric vehicles, and that's called progress, or the free market.

     

    The auto companies can not compete with Tesla's mileage, so it's no contest between Tesla and the other auto companies, the Government will have no choice but to go with EV's that's why Elon has given his patent technology free to other companies, whether they use it or not remains to be seen, but they would be foolish not to use it.
    24 Jun, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Doc's Trading
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    TSLA.... Recommend short sale here 236 with protective Buy stop of 242.88.
    This is our 54th recommendation of which 53 were profitable (one loss was a .60 loss in MU today)..
    more later....
    24 Jun, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Frank Greenhalgh
    , contributor
    Comments (1916) | Send Message
     
    joeinslw:
    I really don't think I am wrong. Yes the world demand will rise and oil prices will undoubtably rise. However I see a window over the next decade where increased drilling, fracking, CAFE standards, EVs, Hybrids, Solar Energy, and increased use of natural gas will keep the price from excessively rising. No Mideast disruption will be allowed (I Hope).
    24 Jun, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • infinite1
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    "there is something called Gen3 coming soon, starting around $35k"

     

    Yes please send over the details of the price, demand, competition, margin, etc on a car that does not exist. That is what I want to invest my dollars in!

     

    And do you really think 25% of all cars in the world sell for $100,000? Really?
    24 Jun, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • infinite1
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    "there is something called Gen3 coming soon, starting around $35k"

     

    Yes please send over the details of the price, demand, competition, margin, etc on a car that does not exist. That is what I want to invest my dollars in!

     

    And do you really think 25% of all cars in the world sell for $100,000? Really?
    24 Jun, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Bingham
    , contributor
    Comments (977) | Send Message
     
    infinite1,

     

    Please take time to read the link from Peter:

     

    "In 2012, this market [the global luxury car market] was sized at around 300 billion euros". That's roughly 400 billion dollars.

     

    Peter assumed that only 25% OF THIS MARKET comprised cars around $100,000. $100 billion divided by $100,000 gives the number of cars in this range as one million. That's about 1% of the total world market, as we are rapidly approaching 100 million new cars produced every year.

     

    Tesla has a huge market into which they can grow. And the launch of the gen 3 platform will be point when the world, and not just car enthusiasts and investors, really takes notice.
    24 Jun, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John.

     

    Infinite, Tesla has been preparing for the Gen3 for 10 years, and in that time has delivered the world's first true electric sports car (which bears doubted would ever exist), the most acclaimed car in history (which bears doubted would ever exist), and over 100 Superchargers and a worldwide network of stores and service centers that did not exist two years ago.

     

    If you want to invest only in products that exist, try Proctor and Gamble. Most folks in this forum are fully aware that Tesla is not Proctor and Gamble. You don't need to point that out to us.
    24 Jun, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • infinite1
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Peter and John

     

    yep, it is a great car in a big market. That is why is has a market cap of 30 billion. Otherwise since it has lost money for ten years the stock would be worth $5 a share. So now what?
    26 Jun, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    "since it has lost money for ten years"
    Tesla stopped losing money about a year ago, by non-GAAP accounting, which more accurately reflects the business because a buyback offer on a future-proofed car does not make the sale a lease (the revenue is all in the bank, not trickling in monthly). Tesla's gross margin is 25% currently and targeting 28% by year end. That is a massive source of cash (nearly $1B this year*), which along with Tesla's easy access to bond capital is funding growth at a phenomenal rate.

     

    "So now what?"
    Now Tesla will continue its march to domination of the 1M car/year market, and prepare to enter the 50M car/year market, as well as the even vaster coming market for its DemandLogic energy storage products.

     

    * 35k cars x $100k ASP x 25% gross margin = $875M gross profit
    26 Jun, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • portatopia
    , contributor
    Comments (833) | Send Message
     
    <<Tesla stopped losing money about a year ago, by non-GAAP accounting, which more accurately reflects the business...>>

     

    Put down the Elon kook-aid please. TESLA to dominate 1M car/year market? and enter 50M car/year market? WOW... amazing
    26 Jun, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    "TESLA to dominate 1M car/year market? and enter 50M car/year market? WOW... amazing"

     

    As explained in my posts above, the 1M car/year market is the global market for large luxury cars, which Tesla already dominated in the US last year.
    http://bit.ly/1hDLrdA
    Next target is the world.

     

    The 50M car/year market is the global market (in a few years) for vehicles starting around $35k. Tesla plans to enter that market with the Gen3 in late 2016.

     

    And yes, they are pretty amazing.
    26 Jun, 09:32 PM Reply Like
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