Treasury prices get jiggy after weak data


The disappointing April durable goods print combines with yet another big revision downward in Q1 GDP to send the 10-year Treasuy yield lower by four basis points to 2.54%. The short end parties as well, with December 2016 Eurodollar futures up 7 basis points to 97.96 (higher Eurodollar futures mean lower rates), still pricing in about 200 bps of rate hikes between now and then.

In addition to the headline miss in durable goods (-1% vs. +0.4% expected), core durable goods fell 0.1% vs. an expected 0.4% gain.

Before doing too much buying or selling on these numbers, do note they're both old news. The durable goods number is from May and GDP is from Q1, and we're about to enter Q3.

TLT +0.5%, TBT -1%

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Comments (5)
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (3566) | Send Message
     
    Let me guess. Most folks who plan to put 200K down to get the best rate on a 500K mortgage have already signed a contract and will close before school starts in the fall. Demand for private debt has likely peaked for the year.
    25 Jun 2014, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Jake2
    , contributor
    Comments (670) | Send Message
     
    And . . . ?
    25 Jun 2014, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Robin Hewitt
    , contributor
    Comments (5390) | Send Message
     
    Jiggy?
    25 Jun 2014, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • jstratt
    , contributor
    Comments (3890) | Send Message
     
    I think housing is more predictable than most. Especially in this economic environment. Low 10 year Treasury rates and easing purchase down payment requirements and easier loan qualifications create more demand.

     

    Why would anyone think any different? To suggest that consumers dont want houses really defies any historic logic.
    25 Jun 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • omarbradley
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    old news? really?

     

    what are we to expect with the next GDP report then? Plus 25%?
    25 Jun 2014, 02:15 PM Reply Like
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