Seeking Alpha

Zillow tops $140 after JMP PT hike; Trulia, Move also up

  • After talking with CEO Spencer Rascoff, JMP thinks Zillow's (Z +6.1%) consumer and agent share gains are accelerating. The firm also thinks Premier Agent ARPU and EBITDA margin increases, and the expansion of rentals business, could act as catalysts.
  • Last week, Canaccord cited Premier Agent's growth potential as a reason (among others) for upping its Zillow target.
  • JMP's PT has been hiked by $36 to $150. Zillow is now up 71% YTD, and ~7x from its $20 2011 IPO price.
  • Trulia (TRLA +4.1%) and Move (MOVE +3.8%) are following Zillow higher on a good day for tech. Trulia announced today it's launching a smartwatch app for Google's Android Wear platform. The app will show home alert notifications from Trulia's Android phone app, and allow users to swipe through photos and property details.
Comments (23)
  • mapgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Forgive me for asking.
    But is a company with expected Q2 earnings of (-0.04 cent) worth @$150?
    Please do the math for me.
    25 Jun, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • aow
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    Both have massive short interests and high betas. They blow up on any good news. Gravity's a bitch though, we'll see how long they stay high.
    26 Jun, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • 81george
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    Z another TWTR at 70. Momo bubble. Will come down hard. Just entered a large short position at between 140-140.5. Not a very liquid stock, very easy to manipulate.
    25 Jun, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • bdy
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't be surprised if Zillow aquires Google soon.
    25 Jun, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8335) | Send Message
     
    1999 2.0
    25 Jun, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • mlauritz
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Using PE & Fundamental Valuations for Stock Investing is sooooo 2001 & 2009!

     

    Zillow is a GROWTH company & it's on the INTERNET! - how could anyone ever put ANY value on that?!

     

    [LOL - I am increasingly short Z via Long Dated Puts]
    25 Jun, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Surbiton
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    "After talking with CEO Spencer Rascoff, JMP thinks Zillow's (Z +6.1%) consumer and agent share gains are accelerating. The firm also thinks Premier Agent ARPU and EBITDA margin increases, and the expansion of rentals business, could act as catalysts."

     

    Did Spencer Rascoff give specific details to substantiate his comments? or is it just more hype and puffery to increase the stock price to make himself even richer? Did JMP ask why Unique Users remained flat in May with NO growth over April on a days per month basis? despite Zillow investing $65M in a new advertising campaign on top of $45M spent last year. Hardly the basis of a growth stock when Zillow is losing money every quarter on a GAAP basis as it increasingly spends more money to generate revenue than the incremental revenues achieved.
    25 Jun, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • MDaceUT
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    Too answer your question mapgirl..... yes it is. In fact it will be worth greater than $200+ by next year. Go do some homework and youll find greater than 45% Ebidta on $500M in by 2016. Which puts eps $5+..... likely closer to $6. So yes it is worth $6B which is current market value, even that is considered a fair value. It will eventually be worth $10B which puts $250 stock price by 2016.
    25 Jun, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • jaginger
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    it would be interesting to see the math on that $6 EPS target.
    25 Jun, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • mlauritz
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Don't hold your Breath with this guy; He says the same 3 things every time you pull the string coming out his back.

     

    The only thing growing faster than Z's actual share price is MDaceUT's Personal Price Target for Z
    25 Jun, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • MDaceUT
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    Your correct mlauritz,

     

    My price target keeps going up just like the analyst. You have been shorting this stock since what price?????
    25 Jun, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • mlauritz
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    No short - heavy Jan'15 & Jan'16 Low, Low Strike Puts.

     

    I did finally cave on my long-dated only strategy and bought some July 3rd $130 strike puts once this Junk hit $140.

     

    You've done very well on your Long MDaceUT; I'd hate to see you lose it all believing a stock with Zero Fundamentals (at this Cap Level) can go Vertical forever.
    26 Jun, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Amuraivel
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    I don't get it either.

     

    0. No earnings; accelerating losses.
    1. No propriety technology; Google could do this with its maps in 3 months.
    2. Trading at 59x 2018 profit forecast (we all know analysts are cheerleaders too..)
    3. My model says it's about one of the most over-priced stocks out about the 10,000 or so I look at.

     

    It's worth USD 30.34 at in today's overvalued market, i.e. about USD 20-25 on a long-term average basis.

     

    Just got shorted it...
    25 Jun, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Christopher_R
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    The trade is the volatility not the direction.
    25 Jun, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • davidquint
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Z insiders are selling for a reason
    25 Jun, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • steveviglione
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    10,000 P/E, what happened to having low P/E ratios the market said they demanded from March and April?
    25 Jun, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fanebrb
    , contributor
    Comments (513) | Send Message
     
    How can JMP, a $7 stock jump $36 and be at $150... huh? How can anyone believe the rest of the article... huh?
    25 Jun, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • 81george
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    For the record and the future reference, I shorted 75K Z at the average price of 140.37. I intend to make 1 million profit in 2 months. Cheers
    26 Jun, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • 81george
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    For the record, I covered my position at 128. Took me less time than I thought to meet my target. I will continue shorting Z aggressively during any upside. Sorry, MDaceUT.
    12 Jul, 05:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mark.ca
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    What % of your account would you allocate to a trade like this, George?
    13 Jul, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mark.ca
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    BTW, good call!
    13 Jul, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • 81george
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    Depending on the stock and my personal projections between 12-15%, but as I mentioned before if it hedges my long positions. I use high beta overvalued stocks near unsustainable levels: yelp (any price over 83-85) z 140+, TRLA 44-45 and such. And of course one needs to take momentum into account as well as any news to update the targets. Stated targets are valid if current variables remain the same (revenu, EPS, etc). I don't really care about their growth, they are unsustainable at these levels.
    14 Jul, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mark.ca
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the info. Apperciate it.
    14 Jul, 10:50 AM Reply Like
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