Seeking Alpha

Mortgage REITs welcome Treasury rally

  • Enjoying the decline in interest rates even among some hawkish stomping of feet by St. Louis Fed boss Jim Bullard, the mortgage REIT sector (REM +0.9%) is broadly higher. Sector giants: Annaly Capital (NLY +0.6%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.1%).
  • Others: Two Harbors (TWO +1.9%), Chimera (CIM +1.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1%), Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI +1.4%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT +1.1%).
  • Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
Comments (11)
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8684) | Send Message
     
    Expect more gains as the year plays out.

     

    The 10 Year may fall to 2.20% by Christmas.
    26 Jun, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • William Packer
    , contributor
    Comments (416) | Send Message
     
    more like 2.44% by the end of next week. Maybe lower. 2.20% is easy to hit. so is 2%.. all it takes is some bad economic data and more chaos out of IRAQ.
    26 Jun, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Dividends#1
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    William,

     

    You have finnally changed your viewpoint to match my call to you several months ago.

     

    I am not saying 2% on the 10 year is a guarantee, only my chart reading led me to this call.

     

    Interesting you have switched gears again. I expect will will change your mind again.

     

    Lastly, IF 2% does happen, I still see it as a temporary correction followed by a rise back to 3%. Just my 2 cents of technical analysis.
    27 Jun, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • William Packer
    , contributor
    Comments (416) | Send Message
     
    yields don't have to go up. Look at Europe yields. 1.25 on 10s for Germany now. US yields could easily drop below 2%. 2nd quarter GDP could come in terribly weak, jobs data could start to drop off... US could see recession again this year. fed could be forced to join Europe and increase QE policies to help the economy. Rates could get squeezed lower even more.
    30 Jun, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Dividends#1
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Packer,

     

    Anything can happen. But do you really think we are going to see a recession? Are you talking about 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP?

     

    Definition of 'Recession'

     

    A significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP); although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession.

     

    A recession does not seem likely in 2014.
    30 Jun, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • William Packer
    , contributor
    Comments (416) | Send Message
     
    negative 2.9 GDP is a contraction. if we for some reason contract in q2 then its a recession. although, i doubt q2 will be negative GDP. probably just low like 1.5, maybe 2.5%
    1 Jul, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • James Bjorkman
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    Traders took another look at -2.9%. All the happy talk in the world doesn't change that.
    26 Jun, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Chazuu
    , contributor
    Comments (139) | Send Message
     
    Worldwide economic weakness doesn't push up interest rates.
    As long as wages are stagnant and demand remains low interest rates should stay low.
    26 Jun, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • stu.
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    I Will stand with. NLY & AGNC & NYMT I think they will make a come back
    26 Jun, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • MichaelJ8
    , contributor
    Comments (674) | Send Message
     
    pick up TWO, its better.
    27 Jun, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Jhalgren
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Just watch how the increasing unemployment for June, July and August maybe even crashes the markets by August; then, Yellen will end the tapering and admit that growth is even negative! The only show in town is the fossil fuel sector and that should improve as the oil wars roll on!
    27 Jun, 09:08 AM Reply Like
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