Seeking Alpha

More on Ford's U.S. sales

  • Ford (F -0.8%) saw car sales drop 1.4% in June to 81,198 while truck sales fell 8.6% to 78,081.
  • Sales growth by brand: Ford -5.9% to 214,793; Lincoln -2.7% to 7,271.
  • Sales growth by model: Ford Fusion +13.5% to 27,604; Ford Fiesta -31.1% to 6,450; Ford F-Series -11% to 60.560; Ford Escape -12.5% to 25,110; Lincoln MKZ -6.0% to 2,990.
Comments (36)
  • J38765
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    It is hard to overstate how bad these numbers are in light of GM's results. Ford's market share continues to plummet despite ever increasing incentives. The scariest part is the franchise product appears to be in free fall, with F150 down 11%. The toxic combination of escalating incentive and warranty costs and ever lower transaction prices does not bode well for Ford stock. Ford's sales numbers have been awful for 4 months in a row. It looks like four years of dismal product quality are finally catching up with Ford as sales tumble and warranty costs climb.

     

    Less important, but still notable, it appears that Lincoln is still a fool's errand.

     

    Ford is in trouble!
    1 Jul, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • DaveSsworks
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    It's hard to overstate how little some people know about the automotive industry.

     

    Worse yet it's a shame that bias toward one manufacturer versus another creeps so insidiously into these comment threads - more so in this industry segment than any other.

     

    Ford beat analysts estimates today for June. Furthermore it's well known that Ford is in the midst of a massive product replacement phase right now.

     

    PS - I'm long in both F and GM but do not own products from either (excepting a rather old Suburban)
    1 Jul, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • fordmustang
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    look at gm recall over 20 million
    1 Jul, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Patent News
    , contributor
    Comments (1320) | Send Message
     
    lol ford longs are are a funny crowd.
    1 Jul, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (913) | Send Message
     
    So what is the surprise here? Did Ford not tell us in December that sales would be down in 2014? The sales were down in June, but incentives were also down. Ford is not just pushing cars out the door only to have to recall 20 million because they could not engineer a good car. GM's problems are huge because for years they pushed cars and trucks out the door, ready or not and that seems to be continuing.

     

    Ford not having the problem of bankruptcy, was able to continue to fund R&D and that will pay big dividends next year.
    1 Jul, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Magarv
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    Great news for Mexico, what with the Fusion (built entirely in Hermosillo, Sonora) rising up in sales.

     

    As a matter of fact, one can feel the new energy in Hermosillo brought by Ford's success there. The city's booming!
    1 Jul, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (913) | Send Message
     
    Wow - are you way behind in the times. Ford started production of the Fusion at the Flat Rock Michigan plant last fall.
    1 Jul, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Recent intro of M-B CLA and Audi A3 will further fragment sales cutting Fusion market share along with lower margins from incentives.

     

    Not to mention all new Hyundai Sonata, & Toyota Camry that will fight for share in crowded segment.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aZ1obe
    1 Jul, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • fordmustang
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    moving fusion to flatrock mich
    1 Jul, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (913) | Send Message
     
    Show me a $25k MB or Audi - Please!
    2 Jul, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • davereggi
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    The drop in F150 sales was to be expected. If I'm shopping for a Ford truck, and I like the idea of aluminum, I'm delaying buying one until the 2015s come out. I would imagine they are winding down production of the 'steel' ones in advance of the shutdown/crossover.
    1 Jul, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Edgar3332
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    So much for the longs pipedream of $20 share just around the corner. Can't wait to read Raven's spin on this dismally shrinking market share trend and how he readjusts his numbers projections to turn ths into a favorable trend.
    1 Jul, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (913) | Send Message
     
    I am long Ford and did not agree with $20 a share anytime soon.
    1 Jul, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • smurf
    , contributor
    Comments (3861) | Send Message
     
    With apologies to Mark Twain I will paraphrase to say that I think the the reports of Ford's death are grossly exaggerated.

     

    Most of the previous obit writers are probably GM enthusiasts, poor souls.
    1 Jul, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Both negative and worst in industry sales 4 out of the last 6 months now.

     

    I would call that a trend.

     

    Wait till margin compression from aluminum F-150 kicks in.

     

    You aint seen nuthin yet.
    1 Jul, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • JasonMiles
    , contributor
    Comments (113) | Send Message
     
    The only thing I can say is Ford builds a much better car than GM and it should be doing much better
    1 Jul, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    None of about a dozen surveys I have read agree with that.

     

    http://bit.ly/1nG96QH
    1 Jul, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (913) | Send Message
     
    No doubt written by Ford haters like you.
    2 Jul, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Tasiarae1
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    All the short sellers will be proven wrong. Ford will prevail and reach 20 by year end.
    1 Jul, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Eric A
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I have a F-150 that I am very happy with. I am thinking about buying another F-150 but I want to wait until the aluminum model is out. I believe that once the new model is out, sales will increase significantly.
    1 Jul, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • mehauck1
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    There were 6 Saturdays in June 2013 versus 5 in 2014. Saturday is the day most vehicles are sold. That accounts for some of the drop off. Plus Ford is introducing a ton of new vehicles this year and next and warned that sales would be down this year as it retools. Buy the dips and you will be very happy in a year when the stock is in the mid-twenties.
    1 Jul, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Wiseman1
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    Ford sales fell 5 percent to 222,064, but the company still beat the analysts' forecast of 217,007. So what is the problem? Ford is cutting back production because of its announced change over this is to painful after the shares started off higher. the positive is F150 are staying very profitable and sales remain strong.
    1 Jul, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • irish_bob
    , contributor
    Comments (426) | Send Message
     
    in the past , ford sold off when sales were up , no logic to ford stock price so i expect it to go higher here
    1 Jul, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • The Retired one
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    I just keep Fording along without G.M.'s idiotic hidden recalls.
    1 Jul, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    How could they be "Hidden" if everybody knows about them?

     

    GM's recalls largely involve cars and brands no longer produced from years ago. Unlike Ford, with the Escape, out for only 1-1/2 years, has already been recalled 10 times, with about 34 TSB bulletins issued as well.

     

    I won't bother with the disastrous IIHS crash tests, while GM scored #1 in the segment with the Equinox/Terrain.

     

    http://nydn.us/1g8mhRS

     

    http://fxn.ws/1gx6ZGj

     

    http://bit.ly/1sKFuPr
    1 Jul, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (913) | Send Message
     
    "GM's recalls largely involve cars and brands no longer produced from years ago".

     

    Really - I thought the recall of all of the new 2014 pickup trucks of a few months ago was pretty, but I guess 2014 is not new to you. And there are plenty of other 2013 and 2014 vehicles recalled - over 20 million in total. And you would mention the few thousand that Ford recalled. LMAO!
    2 Jul, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    The Silverado recall you mention from a few mos back was a software download, just like Ford has done several times recently on all their hybrids.

     

    And I said "Largely." Unlike the 10 recalls on the Escape since 2013, over 30 TSBs, and failed IIHS crash tests.

     

    If you want to discuss total recalls over time, Ford has had more than any other manufacturer by far. Not even close.

     

    http://onforb.es/1g8F9pt

     

    http://bit.ly/1ruceB3

     

    http://bit.ly/1p1CuP0

     

    http://bit.ly/1sKC8Mv

     

    http://nyti.ms/1kEhvly
    2 Jul, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • jjc920
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Have 2 Ford products - a 2012 Escape (or ESCAPE !) with a recall on it. (like GM car can go from 65 to 35 - neat). Thank God I turn that baby in tomorrow.

     

    The 2nd Ford beauty is a 2014 MKZ Lincoln Hybrid (Ford defines Hybrid as part True but mostly Fiction). To gain Market Share over main competotor (Lexus' Hybrid) Ford knowingly (& falsely) have advertised their Hybrid as getting
    45 MPG (City and Highway). Let's try 28 mpg, or 40 % less than they advertised. Best part, Ford blames "faulty wind tunnel" testing. Where did they test their cars - in New Jersey with Hurricane Sandy at their back ? I think Ford's test models were "on Viagra" for that performance.

     

    An added feature to this push button hybrid - IT JUMPS out of gear into drive all by itself. Its happened 6 times in 6 months. I call it Driving Miss Daisey but without morgan Freeman. SHE DRIVES HERSELF.....incredible crap
    1 Jul, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (913) | Send Message
     
    I have a 2013 C-Max Energi and I really don't see what the problem is - I am at 78.1 mpg since I bought the car almost 15 months ago. I can go 24-25 miles on a charge around town, it is less at 70 mph.
    2 Jul, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Tdot
    , contributor
    Comments (3584) | Send Message
     
    JJ - You are apparently unaware that fuel economy tests are done on a "chassis dynamometer" in a "wind tunnel" to simulate conditions on the road, but with noise factors like headwinds and tailwinds and grades from hills removed, for repeatable and replicable results.

     

    In Ford's case, apparently they had the incorrect load on the dynamometer due to a problem in the test procedure that calculated road loads. It seems to be related to the fact that the hybrid engines inherently have 2 sources of power - the gasoline engine and the electric motor - working in parallel.

     

    Depending on the state of charge of the hybrid battery, like Schrodinger's cat the gasoline engine may be running, or maybe not running, in any driving scenario. For instance, if the battery is fully charged, the gas engine may be off and the car running exclusively on EV battery power; if the battery is low then the engine may be running and supplying all the power to the road, AND charging the battery, which sort of doubles the power from the engine and thus the fuel consumption. The EPA test procedures did not anticipate such multi-mode powerplants.

     

    In any case, apparently Ford's test methodology as interpreted for hybrids missed the low-battery charge scenario, and the loads on the dynamometer were perhaps half of what they should have been, thus the vehicles were in EV mode for a longer time, consuming less fuel, thus inflating the numbers.

     

    This is all based on some of the technical comments made by engineers and managers involved in the media, and you pretty much have to be an engineer to understand anything they ever say...

     

    It reminds of when GM used to quote the Volt at something like 150 mpg: but that was on a 20-mile commute where the fully-charged vehicle was mostly if not exclusively in EV mode. Once the battery is practically depleted, and the gas engine is running constantly to sustain the charge and keep moving, the fuel economy is more like 27 mpg. http://bit.ly/1sYdKfG
    2 Jul, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    This is not the first time they botched the test. This is the second time in a year they got busted for this.

     

    Fool me once.......
    2 Jul, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tdot
    , contributor
    Comments (3584) | Send Message
     
    No. False.

     

    The "first time", it was revealed that Ford didn't run the test on the C-max, or at least didn't publish the results they achieved if they did. They ran the test on the Fusion, and used those numbers for the C-max, which is a common practice when the engine is the same and other factors like weight and aero are the same or lower. That is a common practice across the industry, and it is allowed in the regulations. http://aol.it/1s0hU2h

     

    For reasons that were never clearly explained, the smaller, lighter C-max ended up getting lower mpg than the larger, heavier Fusion, after it was tested. But perhaps that was an indicator that something was wrong with the loads, because the "physics" indicated that the C-max should be the same or better than Fusion.

     

    If there is anything we learned from Hybrids is that they are extremely sensitive to how they are driven, which is why folks report anywhere from 33 to 49 mpg in their C-Max hybrids (EPA rated at 40 mpg) and 29 to 56 mpg in their Fusion hybrids (EPA rated at 42 mpg).

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1s0gTHC
    2 Jul, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3314) | Send Message
     
    Ford has gotten nailed for MPG misrepresentation more than once now.

     

    They are trying to show Obama his $5.9B DOE loan was well spent.

     

    Meanwhile GM's V-8 pick-ups get better MPG than Fords Eco-Turd V-6, all with much lower cost to produce.

     

    http://bit.ly/1iLKj9z

     

    http://bit.ly/PS4RTk

     

    http://bit.ly/PS4qs9

     

    http://bit.ly/PS4urI

     

    http://bit.ly/1gx6bkZ
    1 Jul, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • fawneedie
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    How come when Ford stock goes up, a little, there's a big sell off? Then, guess what, some one with money buys low to keep the stock low. Know wonder Ford stock can't get to where it should be.
    1 Jul, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Ryandan
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    fawneedie

     

    the computers are running wall st now. trading is almost all mechanical. and you have ford out there with 4Billion shares for trade. it takes an earthquake to move that many shares.

     

    i believe ford is averaging 30M shares (est) a day in trading. if my math is correct, that's less than (1%) of the stock. you got to make a lot of people happy to make this stock go up.
    2 Jul, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • erickston
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Ford claims the reported numbers as 'by design'; raise F-series inventories to accommodate a lengthy change over to Aluminum and a continued reduction of rental fleet sales (15% ytd). My calculations show this can account for ~10%. Add that against the reported number and F is right in the ball park with industry norms. Concerns over the aluminum F-series margins are certainly warranted but this is such a monster product for F its hard to imagine a major miscalculation is eminent.
    3 Jul, 10:43 AM Reply Like
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