J.P. Morgan sees downside risk for Joy Global

|About: Joy Global Inc. (JOY)|By:, SA News Editor

J.P. Morgan remains bearish on coal and iron ore, which does not bode well for Joy Global (JOY +0.2%), even as shares rise slightly following upbeat manufacturing data early this morning out of China.

Caterpillar’s (CAT +0.5%) mining business already has fallen from a peak of $21.2B to ~$10.3B whereas JOY’s combined businesses have fallen 32% with its OE business down 57% and its service business down 7% from the peak, the firm says.

Lack of visibility makes the question of whether JOY’s revenue has further to fall a tough call, but J.P. Morgan thinks deteriorating U.S. thermal coal conditions skew the risk to the downside.