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Moody's affirms Assured Guaranty's rating in wake of Puerto Rico

  • As of March 31, says Moody's, Assured (AGO +0.9%) has net par exposure of $5.3B to Puerto Rico issuers, including $2.6B to public corporations which could use the new law to restructure their debts.
  • While a Puerto Rico default could lead to a downgrade of Assured, Moody's judges the probability of default to be "substantially less remote" than was the case several months ago.
  • A bullish Mark Palmer from BTIG, notes a report from S&P showing AGO as about $1.45B-$1.55B in excess capital, up from $450M-$500M last year as bolstering the already strong capital return story. "We view buybacks as the primary means through which the company will increase its valuation during the next couple of years."
  • Previously: Moody's takes chainsaw to Puerto Rico credit rating
  • Previously: Assured Guaranty raises $500M in debt sale
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