Seeking Alpha

Jobs gain of 288K; UE rate down to 6.1%

  • June Nonfarm Payrolls: +288K vs. consensus +212K, +224K previous (revised from 217K).
  • Unemployment rate: 6.1% vs. 6.3% consensus, 6.3% previous.
Comments (54)
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Probably some of the best internals (M/M) positive change in years. Lets hope its not 'noise'.
    3 Jul, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • rubber duck
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    The beat was due to a huge increase in part time jobs. Full time jobs fell...again. I guess the new normal is working two or three part time jobs to make ends meet. Nevermind, buy stawks.
    3 Jul, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • yv204
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    You are funny. The pick-up in the part-time portion of the household survey was in the non-economic reasons category. This means that people can now afford to stay home and only work part-time jobs because they want to work part-time jobs, not because they couldn't get full time work. This is a good sign for the economy. Like, you know all those stories you've been seeing about college students not being able to get summer jobs? Well, now they can.

     

    See here: http://1.usa.gov/HqN1lc

     

    As a side note, the establishment survey (industry numbers) doesn't make a distinction between full-time and part-time, so all these characteristics come from the household survey only (the one from which the unemployment rate is derived).
    3 Jul, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (8657) | Send Message
     
    YES: A gain of 800,000 part time jobs; and a loss of 500,000 full time jobs. This means, looking at it in terms of full time jobs gained, it's a loss of 100,000 full time jobs.

     

    I'm not a permabear. I have been a bull before; and long to be a full-fledged bull again. But these numbers are attempts to grab headlines. All those part-time jobs ARE jobs, but they don't pay benefits, don't pay full salaries, and are not what a real recovery is about.
    3 Jul, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11108) | Send Message
     
    The reason is given existing law, and the weakness of this forgery economic recovery, no sane company would hire full time workers when they can choose part timers. The good news is if things keep going this way the US will have an average work week of 20 hours, lol.

     

    4 Jul, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • yv204
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Where exactly are you seeing a loss of 500,000 full time jobs?
    8 Jul, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Gary Jakacky
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Drip.....drip.....drip... water torture for the permabears! Let's stir up a nw batch of cool aid for the ECRI!
    3 Jul, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • jj1937
    , contributor
    Comments (1113) | Send Message
     
    Fed can now end QE in August. Perfect.
    3 Jul, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Indeed. The real problem they may face is rates. Market is forcing upward, no matter how hard they try to sit on them. If they restrain too long, then they will be forced to chase the rates upward and inflation could run out of control. They may have waited too long already.
    3 Jul, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3324) | Send Message
     
    With very little wage inflation, I don't see any broad inflationary pressures.
    3 Jul, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • samuraitrader
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    I am thinking that the wage-based inflation scenario is one of those measures that is now obsolete. The inflation is coming from scarcer resources, think formerly easy to get out of the ground light sweet crude oil, and the changes that are happening in the US$.

     

    Its like watching the VIX. Everyone is watching it, which lowers its value.
    3 Jul, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3324) | Send Message
     
    Food inflation is another that no one can really control, unless soylent green becomes popular. Weather will wreak havoc on crops.
    3 Jul, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (1013) | Send Message
     
    What scarcer resources? Iron ore and coal prices are crashing. Copper and aluminum are relatively higher but still less than what they were in 2011. Oil is up on the fear trade, but production is rising and storage facilities are full of oil.
    3 Jul, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9032) | Send Message
     
    Come on. We all know that when inflation is not going up, bears have to come up with newer and newer BS reasons about why inflaiton is just around the corner. Don't confuse them with facts.

     

    Truth is, as long as inequality keeps growing, as long as labor has no power, as long as businesses have no pricing power because they don't pay their employees enough, and as long as businesses still have to kepe increasing earnings which can only come from job cuts, and feeds into the vicious cycle, inflation is not about to come. The only exception is if people go loan crazy, but households in fact bene paying down their debts, and banks are more cautious now as well as more restrcted and watched by the SEC/Fed.
    3 Jul, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • Jason B
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    Shorts getting violated today.
    3 Jul, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    The stock market is only up 0.3%. I'm not a short by any means, but I don't think they're getting violated today. The stock market seems fatigued by such a strong run over the last 5 years, let alone the last year and a half. Job report was pretty good. As rubber duck alluded to above, full-time jobs fell 523k while part time jobs increased 799k. Not the best situation. I'd like to see full-time job gains. Plus, income gains were small (positive 0.25% - LTM 2%) and average work week was unchanged (fourth month in a row).
    3 Jul, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9032) | Send Message
     
    Did they get f'ed, then, if not violated?
    3 Jul, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • machiavelli
    , contributor
    Comments (440) | Send Message
     
    Some people enjoy being violated in the shorts. Just ask our good buddy, pharmacokinetics.
    4 Jul, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9032) | Send Message
     
    I know, I know.
    4 Jul, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    No recession in sight..on the horizon...as far as the eye can see...etc etc etc

     

    Another emergency meeting called by the Doom and Gloomers Conspiracy Theorist
    Stackers Society....
    3 Jul, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    No Recovery either most job gains in low paying sectors Retail, Leisure Hospitality(food servers and Bartenders) , Bus Svcs (temp jobs). Whether there is a recession or not will depend on how much consumers spends or willing to spend. Good Luck to all.
    3 Jul, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Gallup Spending Index...

     

    http://bit.ly/1nIeIKM
    3 Jul, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • nashbyron
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Actually this month professional/business services (67K) beat retail (40K). So argument "but these are bad, low-paid jobs" is not accurate this time.
    3 Jul, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • samuraitrader
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    a strong society needs to produce something.
    3 Jul, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • nashbyron
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    June U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 57.3, output at 61 -- all heading in the right direction. Output and new orders rose at fastest pace since April 2010.
    3 Jul, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    retail pays at best 10-12/hr Bus Svc, temp/contract jobs for recent grads if lucky to get one will pay $11-14/hr, with 5yrs or more experience lucky to get $20/hr. No benefits. It is hard to believe, but in America today one out of every ten jobs is now filled by a temp agency. The new hiring by companies is on as needed basis, since there is a over abundance of unemployed people, companies will hire when demand requires it then layoff after busy season, this could be IMHO, why initial claims hold steady above 300k, as one batch of temps gets laid off companies rehire a new batch. (reasoning a company has to make a decision after so many hours to add a person to full time, once they get close, the company ends their assignment and hires another temp, and the cycle continues.)
    3 Jul, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    Per NYT:Consumer Spending Fell Well Short of Expectations in MayAmerican consumers increased their spending only modestly in May, a disappointment to economists who said the weaker-than-expected gain would most likely mean a lesser economic rebound in the April-June quarter than many had envisioned.

     

    Spending rose just 0.2 percent last month after no gain in April, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. The two months followed a robust spending surge of 0.8 percent in March.

     

    Income rose a solid 0.4 percent in May after a 0.3 percent increase in April.

     

    Last month’s 0.2 percent gain in spending was just half the increase that analysts had been expecting.http://bit.ly/1mbWC0H
    3 Jul, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    bbro....not sure what society you speak of but having negative feedback in a system is good thing. Take that away and you get an unstable system.
    The stock market is an unstable system.
    3 Jul, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • samuraitrader
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    This is the cover the Fed Reserve needs to end QE. "We are essentially in an experimental phase." - Janet Yellen
    3 Jul, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (8657) | Send Message
     
    The Fed has been 'experimenting' since 2001, when the business cycle growth season of 1983-2001 ended. We will be experimenting from 2001-2019, when the next busness cycle begins.
    3 Jul, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • samuraitrader
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    my bet is on 2023 approx. :-)
    3 Jul, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    The brth/death adjustment added 121K jobs, compared to 205K previously, and a total of 452K so far in 2014. Part time workers non economic reasons All Industries increased yoy by 848K. Table A-8.
    the labor force participation rate remained flat at 62.8%, matching the lowest print since 1978. One would expect that the LPR would increase since people are going back to work, but that would increase the UE 3 rate. Most job gains in Temp svcs, Retail, Leisure and Hospitaliy. low paying jobs. Initial claims 315k. U6 at 12.1%
    3 Jul, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • samuraitrader
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    not as good as the headline appears? :-)
    3 Jul, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    MSM on all networks want the Sheeple to feel good, meanwhile, food, electric, water, gasoline are fueling inflation, despite what Yellen describes as noise. Avg hrly earnings up .2% yet Taxes, cost of living, continue to rise. Now the bad news: A study conducted by the Center for College Affordability and Productivity is projecting that the number of college graduates that will be entering the workforce in the U.S. this decade will be nearly three times as high as the growth in the number of jobs that require at least a Bachelor’s degree. At this point, 53 percent of all wage earners in the United States make less than $30,000 a year. During the last recession, the U.S. economy lost millions of middle class jobs. But during this “recovery”, most of the jobs that have been “created” have been low paying jobs.
    3 Jul, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Jason B
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    Instead of furiously posting over here you should have covered before you went bankrupt. Too late.
    3 Jul, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • rubber duck
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Average Joe should start skipping meals so he can buy more stawks.....
    3 Jul, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Georgiou
    , contributor
    Comments (231) | Send Message
     
    great news , US-economy on rails to real recovery ..... time for STOCK market to take some rest of the 5years raiding. More to http://bit.ly/1s2OiBp
    3 Jul, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • yliu54
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    Who cares? Professionals will keep printing money, and personally recycle it later. Hail the professor.
    3 Jul, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • th3decider
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    For those of you intelligent enough to realize that quantity of jobs means nothing without considering the quality of them:

     

    June jobs #'s report:

     

    Full time jobs: -523,000

     

    Benefits-free, low paying, dead-end part time jobs: +799,000

     

    Putting lipstick on a pig doesn't make it hot, unless you are really drunk.
    3 Jul, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    "For those of you intelligent enough to realize that quantity of jobs means nothing "

     

    Duh what? me no understand....
    3 Jul, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    It doesnt if the jobs being added are low paying job part time/temp jobs.
    Voluntary part-time employment rose by a whopping 840,000 and involuntary part-time employment rose by 275,000.

     

    Compared to a total gain of employment of 407,000, the gain in total part-time employment was 1,115,000. I confirmed with the BLS that one cannot directly subtract those numbers because of seasonal reporting.

     

    However, one can compare full-time employment this month to last month. Doing so shows a decline in full-time employment of 523,000!
    Read more at http://bit.ly/1s3wMwT
    3 Jul, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • permanent
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    + 799000 Part Time Jobs

     

    - 523000 Full Time Jobs

     

    Small businesses are turning full time into part time Jobs to avoid stupid Obamacare.
    3 Jul, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • permanent
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    Just for bbro: The Job market is doing great (sarcasm)

     

    While it’s a number that flops around from month to month — the standard deviation is 287,000 — it jumped by 799,000, which was the largest one-month gain since January 1994. At the same time, there was a 523,000-person drop in full-time workers, the first decline since October.

     

    “It is unusual,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. But he said it could be noise. And he notes that most of the part-time rise in June was not in those who want to find full-time work but couldn’t, and instead in those who voluntarily opted to do so.

     

    One concern with the Affordable Care Act was that some small employers might opt to get around the 50-person work requirement by replacing full-time workers with part-timers.

     

    That said, over the past 12 months, 10,000 new part-time jobs have been created — versus 2.12 million full-time jobs.

     

    And looking at the survey of establishments, it was high-paying sectors that were creating jobs in June. “These are not McDonald’s, Mickey Mouse kind of jobs,” Hoffman said. “This is a better-quality jobs story.”
    3 Jul, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    The economy is tanking (sarcasm)
    3 Jul, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2570) | Send Message
     
    S&P futures are up a whopping .3% on that news
    3 Jul, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    S&P 500 is up 225%(dividends reinvested) since March 9,2009....
    3 Jul, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2570) | Send Message
     
    Sure is. Its crazy world we live in. Yesterday XLU june options were carrying bout 180% the volatility SPY was, like 150% more for NDX. Utilities are the new momo sector these days
    3 Jul, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Overanalytical
    , contributor
    Comments (726) | Send Message
     
    Having this report follow a 3% contraction is suspicious...
    3 Jul, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • permanent
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    Well the economy is not tanking it is creeping along. No Need to sell my stocks yet as Long as the FED and other Central Banks will keep on buying stocks.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    They are debasing the currency but that is a different Topic.
    3 Jul, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    In all of my years of bond trading it was always the payroll number that mattered....
    3 Jul, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • rubber duck
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Or whatever number you need to justify pumping stocks. Negative 3% GDP print? Nevermind that, the economy added a bunch of part time jobs. Long freezer meals.
    3 Jul, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Tully
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    On the full-time part-time issue.
    Zero Hedge happened to have a graph with the numbers month by month for the last thirteen months, so I added them up, for the last 12 months, one year.
    (This is the household survey)
    Full time jobs +2,100,000
    Part time jobs +10,000
    (Someone feel free to check my math)
    Household survey is very imprecise; looks like there needs to be some catch-up in part time count in the household survey, which looks to have started this month.
    3 Jul, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    Are average hourly wages on the rise yet?
    3 Jul, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    Avg hrly wages have remained flat last couple of months. This maybe the reason why Dems are pushing for increase in minimum wage to give a false sense that hrly wages are increasing.
    4 Jul, 08:04 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector

Next headline on your portfolio:

|