Seeking Alpha

PC declines narrow (if not evaporate) in Q2

  • Global PC shipments fell only 1.7% Y/Y in Q2 to 74.4M, says IDC. That's much better than the firm's forecast for a 7.1% drop, and smaller than the 4.4% and 5.6% declines respectively seen in Q1 and Q4. Gartner is even more positive, estimating shipments rose 0.1%, thus ending a long string of declines.
  • Unsurprisingly (especially given INTC's Q2 guidance hike), IDC thinks business PC upgrades stemming from Microsoft's (MSFT) ending of Win. XP support helped out. But it also says consumer demand was better than expected, with sales of low-end PCs (inc. Chromebooks) improving amid slowing tablet growth.
  • Sales in the U.S. and EMEA (two high-ASP regions) rose, while Asia-Pac (exc. Japan) still fell by nearly double digits. IDC now thinks full-year industry growth "could get closer to flat, rather than the May projection of -6%."
  • IDC's Q1 share data points to industry leaders gaining at the expense of smaller players: Lenovo (LNVGY) 19.6% share, +270 bps Y/Y. H-P (HPQ) 18.3%, +190 bps. Dell 14%, +180 bps. Acer (ACEIY) 8.2%, -10 bps. Asus (ASUTY) 6.2%, +30 bps. Everyone else 33.6%, -690 bps.
  • HPQ +0.6% AH. Other names with strong PC exposure: AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC, HTCH.
Comments (29)
  • fastestxc
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    sweet, let's see a good green day tomorrow for $INTC and $AMD
    9 Jul, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • KevinRemde
    , contributor
    Comments (355) | Send Message
     
    And $MSFT. :)
    9 Jul, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • lords
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Better then expected BS, but PEroject the company growth should be 17-19 so there no sales growth but stock price is based on growth of 17-20% so the stocks should it not be overpriced ?
    9 Jul, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • txbadonetoo
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    MSFT could really help by getting out Windows 9 on time or ideally EARLY. People are still avoiding Windows 8.1
    9 Jul, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • whiteowl
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Much has been made of the XP EOL upgrade cycle, but it has barely begun, with only a tiny fraction of operating XP systems upgraded to date. Windows 9, or Threshold, promises to go back to a more appropriate user interface for desktops and notebooks. Don't underestimate the number of people who have been putting off new purchases waiting for this to happen.

     

    Hopefully this will be the next good MSFT OS. Everyone knows you have to cherrypick your MSFT OS'es.. go for the 95, the XP, the 7, but skip the 98, the ME, the Vista, the 8.

     

    There are really 3 things at work: 1) XP EOL, 2) hardware getting long in the tooth, and 3) the next "good" MSFT OS hopefully in the offing. Give us the trifecta, and we'll see a new PC cycle.
    9 Jul, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3020) | Send Message
     
    esp. if win 9 is better received, imo
    9 Jul, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rope a Dope
    , contributor
    Comments (529) | Send Message
     
    I just read this a few days ago and can't find the article to link now, but XP upgrades to Win 7 exceed that of XP to Win 8.
    9 Jul, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3020) | Send Message
     
    i'd believe it - in my experience i'm used to seeing win 7 PCs in corporate settings, and it's corporate settings that are using Win XP still
    9 Jul, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Nettligent
    , contributor
    Comments (1344) | Send Message
     
    Worldwide customers want to stay with Microsoft Windows 7 and enterprises moving toward Linux based OS every day. Most of the new computers forcedly shipping with MS Windows 8.x, so there is no need to buy.
    Like Ubuntu and others, the beautiful Chromebooks and tablets are excellent choice and getting better every days.
    9 Jul, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Rope a Dope
    , contributor
    Comments (529) | Send Message
     
    I just built a new computer (tower) and used Win 7 for the build. I would never allow Win 8 on any machine I use for productivity. I have Win 8 on my tablet and it is great for touch devices, but for anything outside of a toy, it sucks.

     

    I’ve been using computers for 20 some years now and for the first time ever, am beginning to look at an alternative OS, all because of Win 8.
    10 Jul, 05:53 AM Reply Like
  • Seppo Sahrakorpi
    , contributor
    Comments (1866) | Send Message
     
    I have been using and use Win, Unix, Mac, and Linux computers, servers, clusters, and supercomputers extensively for over 25 years in my academic, and industrial work, and private use. All systems have their benefits, and weaknesses. None is anywhere near perfect.

     

    I currently use Win 8.1 hybrid ultrabook (Lenovo Twist) for all my day-to-day productivity work. After a few hours/days of learning the new features of the OS, there is nothing wrong with that OS IMO, in fact I really like using the Metro GUI in tablet mode, and regular Desktop in desktop/workstation mode, all-in-one...
    10 Jul, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • newnnly
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Can we stop hearing about THE DEATH OF THE PC now?
    9 Jul, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3020) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, probably not.
    9 Jul, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • jnffarrell
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    Booming Chromebook sales bundled with sinking PC sale make PC sales look flat.
    9 Jul, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3020) | Send Message
     
    "The consumer side also appears stronger than expected, with growing activity among the lower-priced models as well as Chromebooks." - Looks more like both low cost windows notebooks and chromebooks are the cause, not one replacing the other - at least according to IDC.
    9 Jul, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • DoowopDave
    , contributor
    Comments (203) | Send Message
     
    IBM investing $3 bn in game changing chip technology. Intel may see PC improvement but they need an urgency that I still don't see. I figure Intel has 18 months to show us they get it. Otherwise, I'm gone.
    9 Jul, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Arvinpinal
    , contributor
    Comments (201) | Send Message
     
    GREAT News for both AMD and Intel !!
    I bet AMD will have good earning report as well good year from now to 2016 !!

     

    Hopefully soon will see price up to $8 range !!!
    9 Jul, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • texasredraider
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    There's one company who has successfully built a complete ecosystem for which it's products will serve the high-end, high-margin segments. That company is Nvidia. All of those who still cling to the Intel's and lowly AMDs of the world will see green...the green glow of Nvidia's growing dominance in PCs (GeForce), Servers (Tesla), Autos & yes high-end tablets & smartphones (Tegra K1). For those who doubt the latter, I give you Volkswagen (the largest carmaker in the world), Tesla; you'll need only wait for Google & Nvidia's Project Tango to be released. The disruptive, differentiation starts with Tegra K1. CEO Jen-Hsun Huang has navigated these markets with great stealth while the naysayers & competitors dismissed his company. And I haven't even touched the growing acceptance of Nvidia's GRID for the cloud, QUADRO's impact on design & applications for energy growth, health sciences, super-computing.

     

    You can't be all things to all people. But you can be the absolute best at what you do, commanding the high-end of specialized markets with the highest profit margins. A rising tide may lift all boats. I'm just glad I'm invested in the tide...Nvidia (NVDA)

     

    There are a plethora of skeptics now. There won't be in a few years.
    9 Jul, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Ashari
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    there are lots of very convincing reasons why there is a "plethora of skeptics" but still many more Jen-Hsun groupies who can't get enough of his Kool-Aid.
    10 Jul, 04:29 AM Reply Like
  • texasredraider
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Case in point...Jobs was in a similar position a few decades ago. He eventually got it. So has Huang.
    10 Jul, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Emmanuel Nogueira
    , contributor
    Comments (235) | Send Message
     
    I'm betting that Intel FINALLY breaks out that that decade old trading range. The growth should be there with the world becoming more dependent on technology.

     

    Holding INTC $40 01/16/2016 calls.
    9 Jul, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • RLLH
    , contributor
    Comments (463) | Send Message
     
    Those who experimented with toys for computers are beginning to realize there is no replacement for a pc.
    9 Jul, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3020) | Send Message
     
    Replacement only captures a sub segment of a market - microsoft, during their surface 3 press event, IIRC, said something like 90% (or some other redic high number) of people own tablets and PCs

     

    My household has multiple PCs, tablets, game consoles, and a smart tv or two.

     

    PCs and tablets aren't mutually exclusive - sent from my iPad
    9 Jul, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Revben
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    yeah, my sister has smartphone, tablets and a wii u, but she now wants a pc, becuase they cannot even run abc mouse
    9 Jul, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1577) | Send Message
     
    Knew the IFad wouldnt last, you cant do anything on that crap
    9 Jul, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • alterami
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    This could be a great new marketing strategy for MSFT. Create an OS that everyone hates every other version, and discontinue support for the OS thats 2 generations old....and force everyone to upgrade their hardware to get the OS free when their support runs out. LOL
    10 Jul, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Ashari
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    "while Asia-Pac (exc. Japan) still fell by nearly double digits"

     

    Damn, that's were AMD's value for money approach is most succesful and where they concentrate theit efforts in trying to gain more market share. I hope this double digit fall plus and the rumoured fall in graphic sales isn't going to wipe out any profits from consoles and professional graphics.
    10 Jul, 04:24 AM Reply Like
  • Shaduc
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    !!

     

    Companies with large stakes in the personal-computer market breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday afternoon, when the quarterly trackers for Gartner and IDC showed that PC shipments clocked their best improvement in two years during the second quarter. While the two research firms' numbers differed somewhat, both reported the best year-over-year change for PC shipments since the second quarter of 2012 as the death of Windows XP support and growing popularity of low-cost laptops such as Google's Chromebooks helped boost the flow of PCs, especially in the United States. "One encouraging factor was a good intake of lower-end systems, including Chromebooks, which coincides with the recent slowing in tablet growth and perhaps signals the beginning of some stabilization on the consumer side," IDC Senior Research Analyst Jay Chou said in the news release. Intel hinted at a resurgence for PCs last month.

     

    http://bit.ly/1lWiCZm
    10 Jul, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • Shaduc
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1mBZ1lC
    Personal computers roar back after death of Windows XP
    By Mae Anderson

     

    Associated Press

     

    POSTED: 07/09/2014 01:13:43 PM PDT

     

    NEW YORK -- A two-year slump in personal computer sales ended in the second quarter, helped by improving demand in developed markets like North America and Europe.

     

    PC sales have fallen in recent years, hurt by surging demand for tablets and other mobile devices. Tough economic conditions around the world have also disrupted sales. But quarterly figures released Wednesday by the research firms Gartner and IDC show the global slump is easing.

     

    During the April to June quarter, Gartner said PC shipments edged up 0.1 percent to 75.8 million units. IDC, which also tracks PC shipments, had slightly different figures. Both firms, however, said sales posted their best quarterly results since the second quarter of 2012, when demand for tablets and mobile devices began to surge. IDC said by its calculations PC shipments fell 1.7 percent to 74.4 million units. That number was much better than the 7.1 percent decline the firm expected.
    10 Jul, 06:01 AM Reply Like
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