Cable ad spending expected to drop


General Motors and Procter & Gamble have reduced their level of ad commitments compared to a year ago, according to estimates from the WSJ.

The shift of more ad dollars away from TV to digital channels could bite 2H revenue for major networks (DIS, CMCSA, CBS, FOXA, TWX, AMCX, VIA).

The overall cable upfront market is now expected to show a Y/Y decline of as much as 5% after early estimates were for a 4% gain.

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Comments (3)
  • Tai Yu
    , contributor
    Comments (1216) | Send Message
     
    DIS began its recent upward move on jun 23 '14 when it hit a low of $82.32. Owing to, perhaps, the added publicity associated with the World Cup, DIS surged but topped out on Jun 10 at $87.61,as the soccer event came close to its end. Technical have since turned ugly. DIS may have completed the bullish flag correction today though and the short term target price is evaluated as follows:

     

    Rise in the last surge $87.61 - $ 82.32 or $5.29
    Breakout price, $86
    Target price: $86 + $5.29 or $91.29.

     

    The three day candle, from July 16-18 is heading for a bullish bottoming 'morning star pattern'. The upside is not really that significant and I buy a call option instead.
    18 Jul 2014, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • ankur@alliancedesigns.net
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I think the shift of ad dollars away from the traditional linear channels will be buffered by the shift towards the cable operators' own OTT or TVE offerings. Net/Net, the number of spot avails is steadily increasing, so I think overall, the market is growing and healthy.
    18 Jul 2014, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tai Yu
    , contributor
    Comments (1216) | Send Message
     
    Information gets disseminated fast thinks to the popularity of mobile devices and today's price action tells the effect is neutral. The issue may be clouded by the market euphoria today though
    18 Jul 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
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