Synthetic Bio up big on no news

The biotech sector's up move notwithstanding, nano cap Synthetic Biologics (SYN +32.9%) pops on a 3x surge in volume on no apparent news.

The stock is trying to recover from its late April plunge after it reported results from a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating Trimesta (oral estriol) as an adjunctive treatment for relapse-remitting multiple sclerosis. The decrease in annualized relapse rate was statistically significant at 12 months but not at 24 months. The stock quickly sold off, dropping 60% from its April 28 close of $2.91 to a low of $1.16 on May 14.

Consensus revenue estimates for 2014 and 2015 are $250K and $1M, respectively.

18 mutual funds have positions, up from 13 a year earlier.

Comments (8)
    , contributor
    Comments (565) | Send Message
    No stock would go up 50% (at one point today until it settles at 32% right now) without reason. While its trimesta trial met only the 12 months period without having the 24 months result deemed significant, it does offer improvement on significantly improved cognitive functioning on the patients in the drug arm. This is a very important finding/data and UCLA was going to do further trials with the focus on cognitive functioning. Also CEO Riley mentioned in the cc that many pharmas showed interest in the drug. Aside from Trimesta which actually is a legacy drug and SYN's pipeline consists many innovative drugs including one for whooping cough, another dealing with super bugs in the hospital, among a few others. I believe SYN is extremely under-valued with such a comprehensive pipeline. Who knows what has led to the sudden upswing of share price today. It has to be some developments of its drugs and must be positive in nature. Very long on this one and will continue to hold it.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • dhdhoora
    , contributor
    Comments (764) | Send Message
    There was absolutely no basis for the selloff prior to today's bump -- other than obvious bashing by some very influential blogsters to burnish up their short positions. The Trimesta results were actually very strong. The issue about the P2 Trimesta trial not having statistically significant results for the 24 month was pure bunk. The trial design did not have sufficient lift to accomplish this. This did not prove that the drug was bad -- but that the trial design was flawed or misinterpreted. Unfortunately, Synthetic's management did not make matters any better by their weak response.


    We are still anticipating further information with respect to the P2 Trimesta data. Maybe today's run up was in anticipation of that information (hello SEC...). Or, maybe the players finally had their fill on cheap stock and switched positions -- go figure. In any case, as RHMASSING pointed out, $SYN is not a one trick pony. Trimesta is an important drug -- check with any MS sufferer--- but there are plenty of other extremely important drugs and science in the pipeline.


    All the very best,
    29 Jul 2014, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • mazlat10
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
    I hope that the shorts push it down with 5 million so when the good news comes it surges to 4+
    30 Jul 2014, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • galaberge
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
    @dhdhoora You are so right. Trimesta clinical trial was EXCELLENT but was badly presented on the PR. Also nobody has explained in detail these results. Trimesta will be bring a fortune of $$$$ to SYN. Have a good day.
    29 Jul 2014, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • aretailguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1930) | Send Message
    There was a recommendation by a small newsletter on $SYN. Stocks with very small public float can have extreme moves like this one did today. This remains a very interesting spec stock.
    29 Jul 2014, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • 224
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
    A Newsletter is so small no one knows it moves a stock with 58 million shares out?


    Doubtful that could juice the daily volume from avg 500k shs to 4.85 million shs.
    29 Jul 2014, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • hmcdougall
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
    This is bizzare, what's happening with this stock, does anyone know if there are any rumours of an M&A or a partnership, seems like there's absolutely no news on this
    30 Jul 2014, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Lazarus Management Company
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
    The company was on the road meeting with funds on 7/28, the day before the pop. Maybe somebody they met with liked what they heard??
    5 Aug 2014, 11:41 AM Reply Like
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