On the hour


Dow -1.35%.

10-yr +0.02%.

Euro -0.04% vs. dollar.

Crude -1.77% to $98.50.

Gold -1.03% to $1,283.50.

Comments (12)
  • aarc
    , contributor
    Comments (3584) | Send Message
     
    Feels like the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010 all over again as the news media kept replaying the gruesome riot in Greece. This time around they kept replaying the gruesome bombing of civilians in Gaza.

     

    SnP500 produced an over-extended 3rd wave on the run down for several days with May 6th the penultimate wash-out day.

     

    >> SnP500 60min Chart Now: http://bit.ly/1qNQqk5

     

    This time around if SnP500 keeps plowing straight down well below 1921.81 today or Monday; then the 3rd will become over-extended. Which usually results in at least 61.8% retrace of the whole run down.

     

    That's why I bought ES in May 6, 2010 once a minor jerk up recovers above the 3rd maximum extended range of 1,110 then held it for 3 days before selling at more than 61.8% retrace of the 10 days run down from the April 26 top.

     

    Let's see how it works this time around. Today is the 6th day run down from the lash high.
    31 Jul 2014, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • ArnieW
    , contributor
    Comments (4224) | Send Message
     
    3rd time's the charm?
    31 Jul 2014, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • aarc
    , contributor
    Comments (3584) | Send Message
     
    90% probability a 1-2-3-4-5 will happen if the 3rd wave becomes extended but not over-extended on short-term to medium-term charts.

     

    Forgot the statistical study when the 3rd wave becomes over-extended but based on my experience vast majority of intraday over-extended 3rds resulted on at least 61.8% retrace of the 1-2-3 run with the 4th and 5th not printing at all. May 6, 2010 the baddest 3rd.
    31 Jul 2014, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • ArnieW
    , contributor
    Comments (4224) | Send Message
     
    I like that.
    31 Jul 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • aarc
    , contributor
    Comments (3584) | Send Message
     
    The PIIGS Debt Crisis was already brewing before May 6, 2010 which investors were still trying to digest without going crazy with panic selling.

     

    It was only in May 6th that the Flash Crash happened when the media kept replaying over and over again the gruesome Greece Riot. Since then the media toned down their broadcasting of riots including that of the MENA Uprisings in Feb/March 2011.

     

    This time around the Ukraine and Gaza Occupations have been on the newsfront for so long they are no longer new until the gruesome bombing of civilians got replayed gruesomely by the media today. CNBC is now trying to blame Argentine Default as the result of today's gruesome meltdown. But then, other financial media were playing down the Argentine Default as insignificant.
    31 Jul 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • ArnieW
    , contributor
    Comments (4224) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the explanation. So it's a B/S market move?
    31 Jul 2014, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • NLTInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (394) | Send Message
     
    any reason for this?
    31 Jul 2014, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • NLTInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (394) | Send Message
     
    ahh argentina defaut of course
    31 Jul 2014, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tony Pow
    , contributor
    Comments (8030) | Send Message
     
    I'm predicting a 10% correction, not a market plunge (>35%) as indicated in my recent SA article. It is not a flash crash.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jul 2014, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • ArnieW
    , contributor
    Comments (4224) | Send Message
     
    That's reassuring.
    31 Jul 2014, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Trader8877
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    argentina, gaza, Ukraine and latest is ebola, the worst of all.
    31 Jul 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • ArnieW
    , contributor
    Comments (4224) | Send Message
     
    Hope it's not eBola thats' spooking the markets. I think it is destabilization. But why isn't gold up?
    31 Jul 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
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