Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance


Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) beats estimates in Q2 and delivers some re-assuring production guidance.

The EV automaker had 7,579 delivers in Q2 vs. 7,546 consensus.

Revenue for the quarter included $23M from Daimler and Toyota for powertrain purchases.

The gross margin rate of 26.8% in Q2 is in-line with the forecast of analysts and leaves Tesla with a little bit of catching up to do in 2H to meet its 28% target for the year.

Production guidance for Q3 is for 7,800 Model S deliveries. The mark is below expectations with the company citing a two-week production shutdown at its Fremont factory as the reason for the anticipated shortfall.

Tesla says it expects a delivery rate of over 100K unit by the end of next year if there are no serious macroeconomic calamities.

Ground has broken in Nevada on a "potential" Gigafactory site.

Tesla Motor letter to shareholders (.pdf)

TSLA +2.1% AH to $228.01.

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Comments (66)
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    This is terrible news! They are producing more cars than they can deliver. Where are all these cars being stashed?

     

    2014 prod and deliveries
    ======================...
    Qtr Production Delivery
    Q1 7500 6500
    Q2 8763 7579
    Q3 9000 7800
    -------------------------
    Total 25263 21879 ( Net excess production till June is is 3384 cars!)
    31 Jul 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Emerald2112
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    lol
    31 Jul 2014, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • peet365
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    can´t you read? They are on the way to customers.
    31 Jul 2014, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • wraithnot
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    As others have said, many of those undelivered cars are on boats to various parts of the world. But I hope Tesla is also using some of those cars to build up its fleet of loaners. I got a glorious P85 loaner in early December, but I heard they sold a bunch of their loaner cars at the end of 2013 and when my car was in service again earlier this year I got a much less exciting rental from enterprise.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • aaronw2
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    It's rare I actually get a loaner. They seem to have a hard time keeping them in stock.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • nsmyth
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    I always get a loaner In fact I have one now while I get my 36 k service
    31 Jul 2014, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • arondaniel
    , contributor
    Comments (1737) | Send Message
     
    "Where are all these cars being stashed?"

     

    ADVENTURE VIII. THE MISLAID MODEL S MYSTERY

     

    I was seated at breakfast one morning, my wife and I, when the maid brought in a telegram. It was from Elon Musk and ran in this way:

     

    "Have you a couple of months to spare? Have just been wired from Menlo Park in connection with June shipment to Shanghai. Shall be glad if you come with me. Leave Port of Monterey by Ayacucho."

     

    To be continued...
    31 Jul 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    on a boat. Where did you think they would be? They don't fly them to China.
    31 Jul 2014, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Lensman03
    , contributor
    Comments (1589) | Send Message
     
    TESLA BUILDING SECRET UFO BASE AT RENO

     

    Daring Weekly World News reporters have uncovered the startling truth: Thousands of missing Tesla Model S's are being cannibalized to build a fleet of flying saucers. Recent ground clearing at a construction site near Reno has been revealed to be disguise for excavation of a vast underground secret base, using Area 51 technology to build antigravity aircraft powered by Tesla Motors' battery packs.

     

    More details and exclusive photos in the next issue of Weekly World News-- The World's Only Reliable News!
    31 Jul 2014, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • cparmerlee
    , contributor
    Comments (13089) | Send Message
     
    Banker wrote "on a boat"

     

    Kindly tell me what boat takes 6 months to go across the Pacific to China? I think I could row across the ocean faster than that.
    31 Jul 2014, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • cparmerlee
    , contributor
    Comments (13089) | Send Message
     
    Value seeker wrote "Net excess production till June is is 3384 cars!"

     

    It is the pipeline to the Twilight Zone.

     

    But seriously, it seems the company has replaced a whole bunch of drive trains. My guess at least 500 of those are vehicles where they nabbed a new drive train in order to take care of a customer and have never circled back around to fix the ones they pilfered from. 1000 or more could be in some stage of delivery to China. 1000 could be at the Tesla dealerships available for purchase by walk-in customers. With the average price falling this quarter, they might have sold a lot of cars that way.

     

    One can explain something like 3300 cars, but if they do the same thing again in Q3, this is straining credulity.
    31 Jul 2014, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • fovomd
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    produced delivered
    Q1 7535 7547
    Q2 8763 7579
    -----------------
    16,298 (15,126) NET IN TRANSIT 1,172 CARS

     

    Q3, DID NOT HAPPEN YET...LET WAIT UNTIL UNTIL NOV. 2014
    1 Aug 2014, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    You should have listened to the conference call today. Google it and there is a recording you should listen to. It will reduce your hostility quite a bit and answer your questions you're losing sleep over.
    1 Aug 2014, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    @fovomd,
    I had a typo; I meant upto Sept 2014. But your number is also wrong.
    Q1 delivery was 6547, not 7547. Which would mean 2172 in transit.

     

    Expect big discounts or great lease deals coming in the next few months.
    1 Aug 2014, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (5022) | Send Message
     
    Okay Valueseeker.

     

    Production vs. Delivery. The boat taking the cars to China takes time to arrive. Sales are recorded in the next Qtr. That is why delivery is always less than production. They are being openly stashed on the ship in the middle of the Pacific Ocean on its way to China.

     

    Stop Spreading FUD.
    31 Jul 2014, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • AGT Tactical
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Thanks surfer...beat me to it.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    @surfer,
    It only take 2-3 weeks to cross the Pacific from San Francisco! Plus, we thought Tesla produces the Europe and China cars early in the quarter. Your argument makes no sense. Besides, no one has heard of the massive shipment arriving at Chinese ports in July.

     

    See how cunningly Tesla avoided any real numbers wrt China, UK and HK deliveries. And here, we were hearing that China deliveries were to be the bright spot in the Q2 earnings. When we are dealing with cunning people, we have to assume the worst for anything that is not said clearly.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (7521) | Send Message
     
    "See how cunningly Tesla avoided any real numbers wrt China, UK and HK deliveries"

     

    That was a key take-away for me as well, no hard numbers again. The company is incredibly vague...and it is running out of new countries soon (Japan will be the last big car market they will enter later in 2014, then the globe is covered for Model S distribution opportunities).

     

    If the numbers are/were so great, they could cite the number of deposits and new reservations in Asia etc.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Raster
    , contributor
    Comments (788) | Send Message
     
    Tesla reports DELIVERY, not production. Every car entering production is allocated to go somewhere. This model is unlike the other large manufacturers that build cars on spec.

     

    This is not had to get one's head around. Cars rolling off the assembly line are contracted for sale.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mario Lanza
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    Don't you know Tesla has invented teleportation too? Instant delivery, Star Trek way.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mario Lanza
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    You are missing the times they have to be organized, go through port procedures, security abc, export this and that, licenses,ship arrival times, and loading (RORO), then the sea voyage, then get there go through the usual customs, port procedures, security abc, import this and that, unloading, port time, blah blah blah.

     

    That, if the weather cooperates, there is no glitch at either point, and more blah blah blah...

     

    Any wonder companies like Orbcomm have sent satellites to orbit via SpaceX so they can account for every second of ship's travel across the globe?
    31 Jul 2014, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    Here is an interesting bit from the conf call:

     

    Analyst: Could you comment if you have like 5-6K backlog in China?
    Musk: Demand will not be a problem. (basically, no answer)

     

    Way to go, Conman!
    31 Jul 2014, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (7521) | Send Message
     
    Musk's favorite new answer seems to be "We can drive demand up at will".

     

    And the service experience will apparently be "10x" better than at other car companies.

     

    He and bullish analysts calling in also dismissed fuel cells (once again) as "bulls*it".

     

    Sorry, but these statements by Musk have hubris written all over.

     

    There is no infinite demand for cars sold at an ASP around $100k and with macro-worries and a bull market cycle near the end (we know what happens to luxury and high-end car demand in a recession or downturn...).

     

    -------
    * I'm not a big proponent of fuel cells either, but Toyota has very clever people working on the tech and they brought costs down over 95% since their first trials. They continue to improve and who knows where fuel cell car pricing will be in 5 years.
    31 Jul 2014, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Lensman03
    , contributor
    Comments (1589) | Send Message
     
    Valueseeker said:

     

    << Besides, no one has heard of the massive shipment arriving at Chinese ports in July. >>

     

    I wasn't aware that cargo ships arriving in ports to unload cargo qualified as "news". <^_^>

     

    Shockingly, newspapers across the nation also failed to report the sun rose in the East this morning.
    31 Jul 2014, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    @Lensman03,
    When TSLA does anything, it's news. If it delivers a handful of cars in UK or HK, it's news. Just check this picture of model S lined up at Chinese port in June. If TSLA releases their next model, it will be like making the sun rise in the west. The press will just explode with the news.

     

    http://bit.ly/1puOrNB

     

    But yes, all the newspapers did fail to report the numerous model S quality issues and drive unit replacements.
    31 Jul 2014, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • cparmerlee
    , contributor
    Comments (13089) | Send Message
     
    Raster wrote "This is not had to get one's head around. Cars rolling off the assembly line are contracted for sale. "

     

    Except they are not. That is the point. We already know a bunch of these are sold by shipping to dealerships and selling to walk-in customers. There is no pipeline argument that can explain 15% of the production not being sold, quarter after quarter.
    31 Jul 2014, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    Those dealer cars are used. Check the mileage and go buy one.
    1 Aug 2014, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • David Muncier
    , contributor
    Comments (1726) | Send Message
     
    Have you ever seen a "dealership" ? There are no dealerships - there are stores or galleries, mostly in shopping malls. There is no place to carry walk-in inventory, just 1-2 display cars.

     

    In-transit inventory of 15% of production is easily possible if QoQ production is increasing and international shipments are a growing % of the mix.
    1 Aug 2014, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • Lensman03
    , contributor
    Comments (1589) | Send Message
     
    << @Lensman03,
    When TSLA does anything, it's news. If it delivers a handful of cars in UK or HK, it's news. Just check this picture of model S lined up at Chinese port in June. >>

     

    I didn't miss the news about Model S's going to China being held up in customs, and in some cases even being shipped back to the USA. Did you?

     

    http://bit.ly/1n3SoER

     

    Personally I'd call that a "delay", but no doubt you can figure out some Bizarro way to twist facts so you can claim TslaM isn't producing as many cars as it is reporting, or that it's secretly selling them thru car rental agencies to Martians, or some such FUDdite fantasy.

     

    << But yes, all the newspapers did fail to report the numerous model S quality issues and drive unit replacements. >>

     

    That's because, like your nattering on about supposedly "missing" cars going to the China and right-hand-drive (RHD) markets, a tiny percentage of cars (apparently mostly early production units) having a mechanical problem which needs fixed does not qualify as "news", except on the Bizarro planet where TSLA FUDdites live.
    2 Aug 2014, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • out for now
    , contributor
    Comments (2707) | Send Message
     
    I think it was about what I expected. Certainly not a blowout quarter but more or less in line with projections. I enjoyed hearing the comment about increased Model S demand and look forward to Paulo's latest "sky is falling" comments regarding demand.

     

    I think the paucity of Panasonic's investment will continue to weigh on the stock. I found the comment that the gigafactory would not be relied on to produce all needed batteries to be interesting. He said Panasonic would make up their difference with their own, non-GF (full-priced?) production. So to me that statement alone calls into question whether a $35K Model 3 is going to be possible by its anticipated release date.

     

    Is this assertion FUD? Personally, I don't see it as even important to hit that target, except for him personally, since in a sustained fit of hubris he has been touting it left and right. A $40K Model 3 would still be a development of historical impact! If he follows up the $40K model 3 with a $32K model 4, so much the better. 10 years from now nobody will care what price the Model 3 originally came out at. 10 years from now 150+ mile ranges will be commonplace. The important thing for Tesla is to continue to make great cars.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • PrincePreston
    , contributor
    Comments (480) | Send Message
     
    I wish I could pay my bills with non-gaap currency. Tesla is a fantastic growth story: the Gaap losses have grown from 40 cents a share to 50 cents a share! And the earnings report is quite clear on China, UK, etc, right?
    31 Jul 2014, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (4382) | Send Message
     
    It should be noted that on a GAAP basis, the company lost $.50 a share.

     

    Production guidance for Q3 is actually 9000 vehicles, of which 7800 will be delivered, the remaining 1200 of which will still be in transit to RHD markets at the end of the quarter. Without the two week downtime, the production would have been 11000. They are also low-balling their estimate by 1000 cars in Q3 to account for any problems after the transition that would keep the production line from operating at full capacity. They are still guiding for 35K units for the year, and a final production rate of 50K units at the end of the year, but they are now guiding for 100K units production rate by the end of 2015, 100% rise y-o-y.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    @David,
    100K/yr @ end of 2015 implies around 100K production in 2016, not necessarily in 2015.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • out for now
    , contributor
    Comments (2707) | Send Message
     
    He's comparing the 50K EOY production rate in 2014 to the 100K EOY production rate in 2015.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Top of the shareholder letter states 35,000 units expected production in 2014.
    Getting 100,000 units in 2015, a production triple, should be easy( not really, but it will be fun to watch).

     

    Even more so with a production line upgraded in Q3 to roll 1,000 units a week in Q4 2014. Which leaves them 48,000 units shy per annum unless Tesla finds a way to increase line production from 1,000 to 2,000 units a week, without shutting down the line. (that will be even more fun to watch).

     

    The math is very fuzzy. But it always has been very fuzzy on this stock.
    Most would call it a warning sign.
    31 Jul 2014, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Lensman03
    , contributor
    Comments (1589) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, "David at Imperial Beach"; your comments are always well-informed and worth reading. More so than many SA articles.
    31 Jul 2014, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • cparmerlee
    , contributor
    Comments (13089) | Send Message
     
    David wrote "remaining 1200 of which will still be in transit to RHD markets at the end of the quarter"

     

    Fair enough, but when should we expect them to get around to selling the ~4000 cars they produced but didn't sell the past 3 quarters?
    31 Jul 2014, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Bingham
    , contributor
    Comments (1283) | Send Message
     
    rhyse,

     

    Nobody said 100,000 units in 2015. The number mentioned in the call was for 2,000 units per week at year end 2015. That's a run-rate of 100,000 per annum, but the year will start with a run-rate of around 50,000 per annum - guidance for year end 2014.

     

    Overall the total production number should be around 60,000 units or maybe a little more for the year - a roughly 70% increase year-on-year, although we may yet be surprised if the Model X ramp up is as aggressive as was implied. Q3 and Q4 guidance should be clearer on this and we'll have to wait until 2015 to see what really happens there. Most likely we'll have a modest increase in production at the start of the year with a faster ramp up towards the end as the Model X is produced in quantity.

     

    I also expect more changes to the current production line as Tesla are still optimising the system, and any bottlenecks will need to be resolved. But they will eventually need a second and even a third line to increase production. Better to get the first line running at optimum levels first and then lessons learned there can be applied to the new lines. Tesla Fremont still has plenty of space to grow!
    1 Aug 2014, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • Magical Alpha
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    who posts these alert? Always sound so positive and skip the part that under GAAP they have a 60m loss.
    31 Jul 2014, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    GAAP reported a loss of $0.50 share.
    Non-GAAP showed a profit of $0.11 share.

     

    That is a large gap.
    Using GAAP, fixed expenses rose much faster then Non-GAAP. That probably isn't good news because of the capital needed to find the Gigafactory.

     

    The other interesting points from a fast skim were shutting down production to increase automation( very nice for improving the both margins and unit quality ) so that Q4 production will be 1,000 units per week after improvements. My confusion is simple. 1,000 units a week in Q4 of 2014 is a massive shortfall to delivering 100,000 units in 2015.. By about 48,000 units. Where are those extra 48,000 units coming from next year. How is that gap gonna close.

     

    Selling to auto leasing firms. Why do that if you still have folks waiting on their vehicles? Why would I wait an extra few weeks to get my car so you could spin a few off to a rental agency.

     

    Giga fun:

     

    No site has been chosen, but some presite work is happening in Nevada.. A site will be selected " in a few months".. That means near end of Q4 for a selected site. Still need to swing shovels, turn screws, and outfit the factory. That will happen in 1 year to have the plant up and running for q1 2016.

     

    That is a whole lot of cats to herd in a very short time. Panasonic is upping production, which is good for Tesla. At what price per unit..

     

    This Thomas still has a ton of doubts...
    31 Jul 2014, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    @rhyse12,
    100K/yr is the output rate at END of 2015, not beginning of 2015. So, there won't be 100K cars produced in 2015. Possibly in 2016. And that is, if the demand dictates.

     

    There isn't anyone waiting for model S. As people here (bailout, Anton Wahlman) indicated, they can go to Tesla store and pick up a model S in one day. I have long suspected that they are building up an inventory of model S. We are now getting more and more proofs of this.

     

    Here is one more clue. Musk said in conf call, that they try to steer model X buyers to model S. If model S queue was long, why woulf they do that? Model X isn't there, and too many ModelS sitting around. That's why, of course.
    31 Jul 2014, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    Your post is full of lies and FUD. There are a ton of people waiting for their cars. Go to the website and order one yourself.

     

    If you want a USED MS then go to the dealer and buy a used one.

     

    Maybe you've never been a salesman but let me tell you how sales works. When a customer is standing in front of you, you sell them something. You don't pitch them a Model X tomorrow, you sell them a Model S today.
    31 Jul 2014, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • arondaniel
    , contributor
    Comments (1737) | Send Message
     
    "There isn't anyone waiting for model S."

     

    The FUD is strong with this one.

     

    Next you'll say there is no Model S. And no spoon either.
    31 Jul 2014, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Lensman03
    , contributor
    Comments (1589) | Send Message
     
    << There isn't anyone waiting for model S. As people here (bailout, Anton Wahlman) indicated, they can go to Tesla store and pick up a model S in one day. >>

     

    I'm sure this will come as a great surprise to all those people on the Tesla Motors Club forum who have been given delivery times weeks or months after they put in their order. <^_^>

     

    << Musk said in conf call, that they try to steer model X buyers to model S. If model S queue was long, why woulf they do that? >>

     

    Uhhh... could it possibly be because the Model X won't be available until next year? Doncha think the salesman would rather sell a car to the customer -this- year? Isn't that what salesmen usually do?

     

    Maybe not in the Bizarro world where short-sellers who post on SA live...
    31 Jul 2014, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    so if there are a ton of people waiting for their model S, why are they being pushed off to rental car companies?

     

    The problem, from my perspective, is you can't play it both ways...

     

    You can't say there is unfulfilled demand, while moving cars to rental companies... Please don't write the rental companies are paying top dollar for the privilege of having these cars in stock, unless your gonna follow up with "they need GPS so the driver won't drive on the edge of the flat Earth."

     

    I misunderstood the 100,000 unit comment. Thanks for the clarity. But again, cranking out 50,000 units a year is the best the UPGRADED line can do. Where are these cars being built to provide units to sell. More capital investment to build more lines? I hadn't realized Tesla was awash in cash with a new factory, superchargers, and extra battery armor on their plate.

     

    Which takes me full circle. if there is unfulfilled demand, why are Tesla products showing up in rental car lots? "We can't build them fast enough for our customers who dropped deposits months ago, but lets send a few over to Avis and Hertz? come on man...
    1 Aug 2014, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    If a rental car agency places and order I'm sure they get filled like anyone else. There money is just as good as yours is. Why shouldn't TSLA send cars to rental agencies? It's great advertising. Tons of people will rent a TSLA and then buy one. Think about it.
    1 Aug 2014, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    One:Rental car companies don't pay sticker, they pay a vig off sticker.
    Second: Do you see rental car companies lining their lots with $80,000 vehicles? The rates needed to make any money back on that vehicle is insane.
    Third: OEM's push standard models to these rental outfits to lower unit cost, when they are in the process of making hundreds of thousands of these units/vehicles.

     

    Your stretching the boundaries of reality thinking pushing $80,000 vehicles to AVIS is somehow a positive thing. You dump surplus on the rentals. Why does Tesla have surplus?
    1 Aug 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • AMD2099
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    This was the heading on the letter to shareholders for the 2Q14 operating results:

     

    Tesla Motors, Inc. – Second Quarter 2014 Shareholder Letter
    • Tesla and Panasonic announce Gigafactory agreement
    • Site preparation started in June for a potential Gigafactory location
    • Record Q2 Model S deliveries of 7,579 vehicles
    • Record Q2 Model S production of 8,763 vehicles
    • Net income of $16M and $0.11 EPS (non-GAAP), loss of $62M and $(0.50) EPS (GAAP)
    • New Model S/Model X assembly line planned to begin operation next week
    • On track for more than 35,000 deliveries in 2014

     

    The last page of the letter is the Company prepared GAAP to non-GAAP earnings reconciliation. The difference is attributable primarily to two items: lease revenue and stock based compensation. Non-GAAP income includes the total lease revenue rather than recognition over the lease period under GAAP. Non-GAAP expenses add back the non-cash stock-based compensation.

     

    Publicly traded companies have included non-GAAP earnings for many years. This is not something Tesla devised. The SEC requires a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings.

     

    Many financial people find non-GAAP earnings to be an important tool in analyzing a businesses financial health.

     

    There doesn't seem to be anything underhanded or opaque in the shareholder letter. As a shareholder and Model S owner, I am very happy and confident in Tesla's management.
    1 Aug 2014, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    TSLA doesn't have a surplus and I'm not the person suggesting they are dumping cars onto the rental fleets. I believe they are on a boat to a foreign land or stuck in China.

     

    A car being at the rental fleet is still great advertising whether you like it or not. If AVIS is buying a lot of cars they should get a discount. They are helping the company sell more vehicles. The lower TSLA prices those vehicles the more cars AVIS can buy and rent out = more advertising.
    1 Aug 2014, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    @ banker..
    Making clients who already put a deposit on the car, wait for the cars so you can sell some to Avis.. If your good with that - then your good with that.
    I would extremely unhappy.

     

    If you think Avis is paying top dollar for the car, more power to you.I don't know what kind of power, but enjoy it.

     

    Tesla is making its clients wait, so it can sell discounted cars to Avis. That is how the math adds up.

     

    Enjoy your evening.
    2 Aug 2014, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    If AVIS puts in an order on June 1st and you put in an order on June 2nd, their order should get filled first. They are a customer just like you. Their money is green just like yours. If you wanted the vehicle sooner you should have bought it a day before AVIS.

     

    I don't think Avis should pay top dollar for the car. I would probably cut my profit margin in half for them because they are advertising my product to many people via paid test drives. I don't have to pay a salesperson to demo the car with them. They pay Avis to drive the car and they get it for the whole day. That's a powerful marketing tool that doesn't cost TSLA anything but a bit of profit margin on the car.
    2 Aug 2014, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • Lensman03
    , contributor
    Comments (1589) | Send Message
     
    rhyse12 said:

     

    << One:Rental car companies don't pay sticker, they pay a vig off sticker. >>

     

    I guess you didn't get the memo: Tesla Motors isn't like other auto manufacturers.

     

    << Second: Do you see rental car companies lining their lots with $80,000 vehicles? The rates needed to make any money back on that vehicle is insane. >>

     

    Yeah, they might have to charge as much as $400 per day, plus mileage.

     

    http://bit.ly/16rMJqx

     

    What you appear to be missing is that rental agencies are buying a -few- Model S's for customers willing to pay a premium to drive something special. Just as some people pay to rent a limousine with driver on special occasions. That's rather far from "lining their lots" with luxury sedans.

     

    And it's even farther from TslaM needing to sell the Model S at a reduced price to rental fleets, or to any other customer. Only on the FUDdite planet Bizarro could anyone think that a company which has a waiting list weeks or months long would need to give a volume discount on fleet sales.
    2 Aug 2014, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Lensman03
    , contributor
    Comments (1589) | Send Message
     
    rhyse12

     

    << Tesla is making its clients wait, so it can sell discounted cars to Avis. That is how the math adds up. >>

     

    Yeah, on the FUDdite planet Bizarro, where 1 + 1 = 11.
    2 Aug 2014, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    Nice find. So the car is being rented out and fetching top dollar as well.
    2 Aug 2014, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • runiter
    , contributor
    Comments (292) | Send Message
     
    The shorts are trying to be negative, but the point is that TSLA managed to beat the expectations. Even if the expectations were low it doesn't matter, they were already factored in the share price. Now that the expectations are beaten, expect the stock to go up.
    31 Jul 2014, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    @runiter,
    Looks like your expectation wasn't met. The stock sat at the same price as before the earnings release.
    31 Jul 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
     
    People are waiting for the jobs report number at 8:30am. If the jobs report is positive you will see TSLA up nicely tomorrow along with the market.
    31 Jul 2014, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    IF you use non-GAAP numbers, they killed it. improving margins, positive revenue streams.

     

    IF you use GAAP numbers, $0.50 loss per share. Increasing losses, decreasing revenue.

     

    BE very careful when non-GAAP numbers show a different story from GAAP numbers. "But this time it is different."
    1 Aug 2014, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • skyboy102
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    well if they have extra capacity they could have offered to ship mine early but they didn't. Ordered in early May. VIN assigned early July. Delivery August 26.
    That sounds a lot like an order backlog to me.
    31 Jul 2014, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • AMD2099
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    It's worth the wait. The most fun ride I've ever had. My wait was from February 1st to March 26th.
    1 Aug 2014, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Valueseeker
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
     
    @AMD,
    That's a loooong wait of 7 weeks for a custom built car! Delivered right before the quarter end.
    1 Aug 2014, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mario Lanza
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    Lamborghini Aventador has a waiting list of 1 year. Pagani Huayra has a waiting list of 3 years. Ferrari last year decided to cap their production at 7,000 units per year and just now promised to cut down waiting times to less than 1 year, with an average of 18 months wait right now for certain models.

     

    All of these are far more expensive than the Tesla S or the Roadster, and they are definitely custom-built. So, do you really believe the people paying for such cars suffer from anxiety in regards to their toys?

     

    That Tesla is achieving a few weeks wait for such low number of built cars per year and delivering them in several continents is amazing.
    2 Aug 2014, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • skyboy102
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    Just a comment on expectations being low.
    I have managed multiple manufacturing operations for leading consumer companies.
    Ramping something as complex as an automobile as fast as Tesla is ramping production takes a lot of effort, a lot of money, a lot of skill, and a little bit of luck. Add in that Tesla is doing this with a relatively new technology, a completely new design, and a new production facility and the fact that their quality has not demonstrably gone down the tube is a tribute to the team they must have put together and the dedication they have to their company and product. Kudos to all of them. I can't wait for August 26 to receive my Model S, paid for in whole by profits on the stock.

     

    Go Elon,
    Go team.
    Go Tesla.

     

    Does that make me a fanboy?
    31 Jul 2014, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Nope. It is excellent management.

     

    But there are only so many dollars, unless your using GAAP- in which case there are no dollars, to go around. I prefer to use GAAP, Tesla prefers to use non-GAAP. Non-GAAP is the technical term for creative accounting. How creative? No idea. No idea when investing is a bad thing.

     

    Enjoy the car. I have driven one, and found it to be an excellent vehicle.
    1 Aug 2014, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • Hmpffff
    , contributor
    Comments (225) | Send Message
     
    230 Mio Customer deposits

     

    Of that, as per Model X Tally Thread at Teslamotos, 150-160 Mio are Model X Registrations, 20-30 Mio should be for Model S Signatures not yet delivered (RHD Countries plus China). So we are left 40-60 Mio $ in actual model S reservations, but wait, this number also includes some "transitory" payments, so for the time between the customer pays for his car and picks it up, its also booked as customer liability.
    So it seems like there are ca. 10K Model S Reservations left in the line. With all the talk about 100k, where will the demand come from? Also being in German car industry, China is what is keeping people up at night, if demand in China falters, German Big 3 are in deep trouble, so is Tesla with its China bet
    31 Jul 2014, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • tech01x
    , contributor
    Comments (1155) | Send Message
     
    Hmpffff, yeah, you don't seem to get it. The ordering process and what it means has been covered extensively in other stories. China Signature editions should be all or almost all delivered. I don't think you understand a reservation versus and order. the only reservations right now are for markets that haven't yet had cars delivered, and many of the customers in the remaining launch markets for this year have already converted reservations to orders. In markets where Tesla has been delivering, there are no reservations at all anymore.

     

    You have to remember that you are looking at rates and factor in time.
    31 Jul 2014, 10:49 PM Reply Like
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