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Bloomberg calculations show Greece with a 58% participation rate for its PSI so far. Key...

Bloomberg calculations show Greece with a 58% participation rate for its PSI so far. Key levels to breach: 66% in order for any sort of debt swap (and subsequent bailout) to go through, 75% is the government's goal, 95% the level at which CACs may not have to be activated.
Comments (10)
  • monsieurmarket
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    that's a nice update
    7 Mar 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Marketspath
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    This is our conclusion from our February newsletter-IWM topped that day at 83.31 and hit a low of 78.43 yesterday. The newsletter was saying to short rallies.-click on the link below to have the full report sent to your in-box. There Is still some timely information inside the report.
    02/17/12: Many money managers are telling as many as they can to get 100% invested in the stock market right here and now. They may be right in the long term, but our intermediate term indicators are saying that you may want to move to cash or at the least lighten up your portfolio if long. If you are aggressive, you can look to short this market, but understand tops are a process.

     

    Some large traders are making big bets on some type of volatility shock to hit the markets through the vix call options for March/April expiration. With the vix in a bullish wolfewave as well as a bullish rising wedge, they may very well be correct. If we see a volatility shock hit, it will have the indexes heading lower. IWM is trading within a very large bearish wolfewave, which also supports lower levels ahead.

     

    The commercial traders are as net short as we have seen in over 10 years. With the large institutions net short and looking for a volatility shock to hit, if you are just a long side trader, I think you will get a much better entry in the coming months. If you are a short or bearish trader, we should see a very nasty nail biting drop hit in the coming weeks. Good luck

     

    http://bit.ly/xNTGES
    7 Mar 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • SA reader
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Only 58%! That's awfully low considering we only have less than a day left.
    7 Mar 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4558) | Send Message
     
    The debt swap that is currently the focus of attention this week relate to Greek sovereign debt that is governed by Greek domestic law and held privately. There is, of course, further outstanding Greek sovereign debt held privately that was sold under internationally-accepted English law and which therefore is outside the jurisdiction of the Greek Parliament. The following article discusses that further debt and the implications posed by this distinctive feature of such debt, whether issued by Greece or another EU State to private interests, will have in coming months.

     

    http://bit.ly/wbA6UU
    7 Mar 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Financial Insights
    , contributor
    Comments (955) | Send Message
     
    This news was priced in a la yesterday. Any good news will only send market higher, and bad news will have little to no affect.
    7 Mar 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • schatzl
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    I see it differently.

     

    Either they do not manage the 75% hurdle ( their offer specifically states, that they will not make the swap if less than 75% participate), then they don't get the bailout money -> bad news, though they are apparently liquid for some months yet,

     

    ...or they force a CAC and trigger a CDS -> bad news, should make plenty of banks nervous. CDS market lacks transparency. -> bad news

     

    ...or they somehow claim the haircut voluntary with a CAC, without CDS trigger, thereby killing the CDS as a viable financial instrument. Why hold default insurance, if their trigger is prevented by very dubious means. -> bad news.

     

    That small sell-off hardly constitutes pricing in the possible outcomes. At least not for Europe anyway.
    8 Mar 2012, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4558) | Send Message
     
    schatzi -

     

    Why would "killing the CDS as a viable financial instrument" be a bad thing given the present form of that instrument? By encouraging massive amounts of speculation through allowing individuals and institutions to take out 'insurance' on the value of assets they don't in fact own, this mechanism encourages the worst aspects of casino capitalism to displace proper asset and risk allocation in the markets and makes these markets inherently unstable.
    8 Mar 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • schatzl
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    I agree that naked CDS are bad news because they destabilise the markets (and are prohibited in the €-zone btw). But the original purpose of a CDS is to provide security for riskier bonds. Without the CDS instrument, how many peripheral bonds will be bought by private investors? I see the €-peripheral bond market jeopardised - or at the very least their rates make a significant jump should there be no form of protection available, especially after the behaviour of the ECB subordinating debt. I won't be buying Spanish bonds, will you?
    8 Mar 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • nullid2002
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting. The guy at Armstrong Investment Management LLC saying "No" to debt swap has a firm that manages only $350 MILLION total. Even if he was 100% in Greece debt, his money is less than 1% of the $271 BILLION debt oustanding.

     

    Does he even realize, the press is gonna use him as a model for Hedge Fund greed? I'm really sick of hearing about Greece.
    7 Mar 2012, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. V
    , contributor
    Comments (1179) | Send Message
     
    He should say no, so should everyone else owed money by Greece.

     

    Send them a message, you borrow, you pay.

     

    You don't pay................people come knocking on doors.

     

    This is the kick in the ass that the EU needs to wake up and force legislation upon it's member states, OR...... fold and throw the EU Model in the bin.

     

    * EU Model should FORCE the members to give up "any and all sovereignty", and adopt ONLY EU LAW. This will eliminate any lower state courts from "intrusive and unqualified interpretation of higher EU Law", (as we see weekly in Germany.)

     

    It would work MUCH better, especially when you consider the likes of rogue States, like Germany, who insist the rules are for EVERYONE ELSE, EXCEPT THEM.

     

    It doesn't look good here right now, the mood is surreal.

     

    It was reported in today's WSJ, that "European authorities may simply decide to pay them (holdouts) to be rid of the nuisance".

     

    Please tell me there is a leaked document with this policy mentioned!
    8 Mar 2012, 05:14 AM Reply Like
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