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More on the July jobs miss; Treasury yields breathe sigh of relief

  • The uptick in unemployment in July came as the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.9% from 62.8%. It was 63.4% a year ago. The employment-to-population ratio of 59%  was flat from June, and up from 58.7% a year ago.
  • The average workweek remained flat for the fifth straight month at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings edged higher by a penny to $24.25 - they're up 2% from a year ago.
  • May's 224K jobs gain was revised higher by 5K jobs and June's 288K was bumped higher by 10K for total upward revisions of 15K.
  • The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 12.2% from 12.1% - a year ago it stood at 13.9%.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield slips to 2.53% from 2.59% ahead of the report.
  • Previously: July job gain below estimates
  • Full report
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Comments (6)
  • grepa
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    So the economy is not recovering too quickly and therefore the Fed will not rush to raise rates? If this is the case, do we expect a better market session or being Friday + geopolitical + stress from yesterday, carnage again?
    1 Aug, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Guardian3981
    , contributor
    Comments (2076) | Send Message
     
    My opinion is that the Fed will continue to unwind QE regardless.

     

    QE was intented only as an "extraordinary" measure. It shouldn't be used unless we are in the depths of contraction.

     

    And I don't even agree with its use, I feel if lowering interest rates is not "enough" that means the economy has to go through structural changes, QE only tries to bandaid this reality.
    1 Aug, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • gofx
    , contributor
    Comments (788) | Send Message
     
    @Guardian, in a traditional sense I agree with you.

     

    However, the nature of the collapse that led to the current form of life support is not something that fits into normal events, per se. Even so, the faster we can return to normalcy the better!

     

    I tackle it from the other side. The rate of economic disruption is an important factor in how much damage is done to individuals whether or not they participated in causing the crisis. While taking our medicine all at once sounds nice to some I don't think throwing all of our less financially protected senior citizens (and soon to be senior citizens) out on the street is the best bet.

     

    The real question now becomes whether or not the reprieve purchased will give us the time to dig ourselves out without throwing all of our problems on the shoulders of the future.
    1 Aug, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • fred1724
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    True, we did not have normal events. The government created the mortgage disaster and now tries to blame it on the banks who were bludgeoned into giving mortgages to those who couldn't afford them. Regulation of business further compounded by the Obamacare disaster stifles growth.
    1 Aug, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • patb2324
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you Guardian that we cannot continue to see such good news in continued stimulus feedings. We're not doing well going it alone and at some point the underpinnings are going to recede, and we'll have to see if the bridge can support the load. The world's economies will always be in flux so their influence on us is predictable. The roller coaster effect is built into the markets. You have to watch out for yourself and make the best choices based on what you know an your individual situation. Best to stay informed but always be aware of the structure underlying the bridge. Diversify and look for opportunities that work for your situation but don't fall for a lot of fluff, or too much doom and gloom. The truth lies somewhere in the middle and also in the boardrooms and backrooms most of us never get into. You're the captain of your own ship
    1 Aug, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Stickgs
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Treasuries will NOT rise above 3.00% 10yrs again before 1 of 2 (or both preferably) things happen...

     

    1) Congress reaches a deal to quell the spending and start to pay down massive ~$17+TT debt.
    2) REAL jobs (exclude part-timers) are created at a 300k/month pace on a regular basis.

     

    Now you know...
    1 Aug, 12:30 PM Reply Like
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