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IATA: Passenger traffic up 4.7% in June

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  • starcorral
    , contributor
    Comments (524) | Send Message
    Short term vs. Long term; Wash vs Write off; Equity centric vs. Sector centric vs. Market centric?


    I have not been seriously invested time or dollar wise for much more than 30 months, but I have learned much from the airlines. DAL at about $36 and American at about $37.50 are about 13 to 15% below their highs - which were a bit inflated above consensus value. If we tag 2/3 of that back on, we're probably looking at October or November. It is the difference between getting 1/3 back and 2/3 back that determines bear or bull, and bull is the word.


    So many like me saw the approaching 100 point or greater adjustment as a wave we little choice but to ride. The street tells me I am down $20K, but the market tells me I am up about $6,000 within 3 - 4 months.


    Yes - I know I make my living on the backs of bad decision makers. But I look at other of my big positions like F and GE and ask myself "Why is Ford so bound and determined to stay within a day's reach of $17.00 (for now) and why is GE so determined to stay within reach of $25.00?


    Please consider that Ford spiked the day of the free brake pad announcement, and every time Elon Musk gives something away the stock spikes up.


    Some call this counter intuitive; I call MY calls something a bit less impressive: anti-knee-jerk.


    Getting back to AA. In a sector where a P/E of 2.86 (NYSE:DAL) raises not a single eyebrow, the <--> AAL has managed is pretty much irrelevant as the two airlines are doing very well thank you. When numbers were released a few days ago, scores of millions laughed off the media's scary announcement that $500 airfares are jumping to $515. Honestly - if you believe groceries have only gone up this year at 2.7% you are mistaken.


    If there was ever a day, week, or month to buy into the airlines, it will be the day this "correction" bottoms. GET READY TO PULL THE TRIGGER!
    6 Aug, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (5618) | Send Message
    They expected traffic to fall as the World Cup ended.
    6 Aug, 09:23 PM Reply Like
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