SolarCity's Q2 deployments in-line; big growth expected in Q3

SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) deployed 107MW of solar systems in Q2, +102% Y/Y and in-line with guidance of 105MW-110MW. 218MW of systems were booked, up sharply from Q1's 136MW. Cumulative deployments are at 756MW.

Deployments are expected to rise to 135MW-150MW in Q3. 2014 and 2015 deployment guidance is still at 500Mw-550MW and 900MW-1GW.

Q3 operating lease/incentive revenue is expected to total $50M-$55M (up from Q2's $43.2M), and EPS guidance is at -$1.10 to -$1.20 (below a -$1.00 consensus).

Cumulative energy contracts +28% Q/Q and +114% Y/Y to 128.9K. Cumulative customers +27% Q/Q and +102% Y/Y to 141K.

Estimated nominal contracted payments rose by $811M Q/Q to $3.31B. Retained value forecast rose by $513M to $1.8B; that equals $1.72/watt, up from a prior $1.56/watt.

Thanks to a breakneck construction pace, Q2 net cash flow was -$117.6M. SolarCity ended the quarter with $577.1M in cash, $246M in regular debt, and $230M in convertible notes, and $53M in solar asset-backed notes.

Shares +0.7% AH. Q2 results, PR.

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Comments (7)
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
    Awful quiet in here, no people shorting I guess, and no bad mouthing either. When the stock took off this afternoon, I knew this would happen and all because of the long awaited Q2 report, and unexpected results of that report.


    When you think about it Solar City has a great model, i.e. getting solar to homeowners and they don't have to mortgage their house to get solar, how can anyone beat that?
    7 Aug 2014, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Ethics-
    , contributor
    Comments (157) | Send Message
    How quickly things change right? Suddenly its tanking.
    8 Aug 2014, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • kenorr
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
    Solar City's business model is flawed in that there are no barriers to entry and with the price of panels falling and the technology improving fairly rapidly their being first with the business model will prove to be a negative. The numbers make no sense, and remind me of the bio-fuel craze which ended in disaster for almost all investors.
    With the government incentives coming to an end I think the company is going to have a very hard time showing a profit in the next 5 years.
    8 Aug 2014, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
    They will continue to grow and adjust pricing lower as their costs drop. As panel pricing drops they'll also be more profitable even faster. Not every competitor can lease panels so the barrier to entry is higher than you think.
    8 Aug 2014, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • LP Concepts
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
    Just don't understand WHY this stock FELL 7% today .....good pre-market gains after earnings came out after close on Thursday ....Then FELL ALL DAY TIL CLOSING~
    On Fast Money today ... They commented on its sudden Drop and said ...."SELL ~Earnings just aren't there".
    I've made money on this stock in the past and did well in June on it. Sold it in July , then bought it back... Now I'm on the losing End!!! ;((
    8 Aug 2014, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
    That's the type of trading that makes you want to get in and out too often. Take a position and trade around it. When the position drops, add some, when the position rises, take some back. Getting in and out 100% is too stressful when the volatility is this high.


    I think it went to $73 because of the gap from yesterday morning and then fell to $70 because of momentum. The shorts covered and the longs went to sleep. It's normal Friday mania for this stock.


    Look at the other SCTY posts from today and you'll see a lot more explanation from CMNSNSE and myself.
    The stock did not fall all day. It went to $79.40. So it's down 12% from the high. It's time to buy it again.
    8 Aug 2014, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Andy Zelenak
    , contributor
    Comments (404) | Send Message
    I was just shocked at how good earnings were. I'm bullish of course, but I thought the tariffs would be a damper. And for them to decrease install costs as well was incredible.
    8 Aug 2014, 11:48 PM Reply Like
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