Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors gearing up for all-time high run after DB upgrade

  • Tesla Motors (TSLA +5.4%) trades higher after Deutsche Bank warms up to the EV automaker's prospects.
  • Nothing earth-shattering from DB, just optimism that Tesla will reach its higher production levels and stretch out margins with scale.
  • Shares are rated a Buy by DB with a price target of $310.
  • TSLA is only $3.50 per share away from an all-time high.
From other sites
Comments (34)
  • SharkDude
    , contributor
    Comments (640) | Send Message
     
    Someone please help me with the math. They increase target almost 50%. Yet say production will increase from 100k cars to 129k cars. IN 2017!!!!!!!!!!. Someone please divide 40 billion by 129,000.
    11 Aug, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • naples
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    never short on valuation. we eat shorts for a living.

     

    always trade on rate of change in sales and earnings. earnings and sales reaccelerating for 2H14 and into 2015

     

    valuation doesn't matter when 20%+ are short in TSLA. the stock will keep rising until there is short capitulation or if the company stumbles badly.
    11 Aug, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    ahhhhh finally someone who thinks like I do.

     

    To reiterate, never short a rising stock with rising growth rate and high short interest. It's a huge short squeeze in the making!

     

    War is never fair. The bigger guns win. Longs have the patience and the money to push the shorts into bankruptcy.
    11 Aug, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • robiniv
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    I think lot of the volatility is due to the fact longs in Tesla don't have much patience. Lots of them are nervous. With good reason
    11 Aug, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • dogeared
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    Shark dude
    Most of us are not day traders! This is a new company building it's first viable product and developing future products, all of which have HUGE potential!!
    We are investing for the long term, not the present.
    11 Aug, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    You have that backwards. It's the shorts who do not have the patience. When your balls are in a vice grip you tend to not act rationally.
    11 Aug, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • tombo
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    Nice bounce today. Seems like a good time to play the weeklies. The $250 put expiring Friday is $1.4 right now. Think I'll buy a few. Wish me luck.
    11 Aug, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • portatopia
    , contributor
    Comments (833) | Send Message
     
    Short on crazy valuation, we eat stupid long bag holders for breakfast.
    11 Aug, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • naples
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    more than likely stock will flush out stops above all time highs first before pulling back. good luck.
    11 Aug, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • naples
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    Bag is getting pretty heavy from 144+ where i got in this time in TSLA and 223 after earnings.

     

    last year it was 41.7 to 178 ride up.
    11 Aug, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (4267) | Send Message
     
    Yes, you need help with your math. Where did you get 129K cars in 2017? That's more likely to be a production number hit sometime in 2016. The 100K will be the production rate at the end of 2015. (They intend to double the production rate sometime in 2015, most likely the second half.) TSLA market cap is currently listed by yahoo as $32B and change. Where did you get the $40B? 40000000000/129000=310...
    11 Aug, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • embryorambo
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Shark it seems like shares of TSLA are materially undervalued here at 259.32. Why do you ask? Because DB says along with some other investment banks (that also oddly enough are gunning for that shelf offering) say its worth north of 310. Seems like a solid 20% upside. I mean when is the last time an investment bank upgraded a stock and was wrong? After all they are the pros
    11 Aug, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Yesterdays_news
    , contributor
    Comments (1358) | Send Message
     
    Wake up, DB is taking bold advantage of your proven stubborn cool-aid drinking abilities!

     

    They are counting on YOU to hold this down to a penny stock!
    11 Aug, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (601) | Send Message
     
    Nervous about what? Nervous about owning shares in a company that makes the best and safest rated car on the road today?
    No you got it all bass backwards, the shorts are nervous, every time tsla trades and they see the stock price rise, that means they just lost more money, if I was short I would be nervous, but I'm not.
    12 Aug, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (601) | Send Message
     
    Eat your own, and make it even shorter.
    12 Aug, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • robiniv
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    Interesting point joeinslwetc. Let's hope we don't get news items about people getting hurt or worse in a few car accidents. Always possible and it would hurt this company really bad
    23 Aug, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • portatopia
    , contributor
    Comments (833) | Send Message
     
    What are you talking about?

     

    TSLA stock went from $290 to $220 that's 24% drop in price in a couple of month.
    3 Dec, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • SharkDude
    , contributor
    Comments (640) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if DB wants to be involved in TSLA's next equity sale. Hell I am sure they would love to do a bond offering too.
    11 Aug, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • gofx
    , contributor
    Comments (794) | Send Message
     
    It is pretty easy not to buy shares in Tesla if you find it too expensive to own and consider it a gamble.

     

    However, don't kid yourself, shorting it at this point is just as much a gamble.
    11 Aug, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3154) | Send Message
     
    @gofx

     

    I agree - I had a TSLA put that I was holding "just in case" - but I sold it and rolled it into a REIT and KMP - the KMP turned out to be a better place for my money.

     

    I think TSLA could go either way from here, and my guess is the way is "up", but with what I view as substantial downside risk I'm not buying here.

     

    I won't think about buying anymore puts for TSLA unless we see the SP rise much higher from here, and closer to 2017/2018 when volumes are supposed to be more meanigful and growth will be harder to come by. By this point we *should* see (IIRC) the Model X (or whatever the name of the SUV is) and have a better idea or maybe even see the Model EveryoneElse in production.

     

    If the model x or cheaper model whatever don't gain traction as fast as expected, and if we are at a much higher share price, then I may think about re-entering, but not when the forecast is to go from 20k cars to 40k cars to 60k cars...
    11 Aug, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • chipdoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    TLSA at this point feels much like AAPL did at $700...
    11 Aug, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1690) | Send Message
     
    What was AAPL short interest @ $700?
    11 Aug, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Krieger
    , contributor
    Comments (4117) | Send Message
     
    chipdoctor: not really, AAPL had dividend, a low multiple and a ton of cash-things that TSLA currently has none of.
    11 Aug, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • naples
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    Very little short interest @ 700...but i guess that was your point
    11 Aug, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • naples
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    I read every academic research. Low PE does not lead to outperformance (alpha). Neither does shorting high PE stocks.

     

    The only thing that was statistically significant is low PBV (price to book). Shorting high PBV didnt lead to outperformance as well.

     

    Strong balance sheet did not lead to outperformance either.

     

    I am a trader and i know what works. The trend is your friend. Shorting stocks above the line (50dma) is kind of foolish
    11 Aug, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (4267) | Send Message
     
    I take it your statement is a joke. AAPL at $700 is nothing like TSLA at $260.
    11 Aug, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • naples
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    He was trying to imply that TSLA is overloved and overowned. Hardly the case with so many shorts as a % of float. Just look at the retail traders trying to hit stock markets version of the Lotto. YOu think they get bonus dollars for trying to pick the top.
    11 Aug, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    Once an object is in motion it tends to stay in motion. 90% of the time when a stock hits a new 52 week high after having a significant pullback the stock will break through 5-10% so we may see $300 soon after $265.
    11 Aug, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Yesterdays_news
    , contributor
    Comments (1358) | Send Message
     
    "TLSA at this point feels much like AAPL did at $700"

     

    Hardly, it took YEARS for Apple to get the stock valued that high, and they had the revenue to back that valuation.

     

    What does Tesla have? Musk? You can have him!

     

    Don't mention Apple in the same sentence as this cult stock. It still won't give the Tesla stock anymore credibility. Give it a rest!
    11 Aug, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • TheBanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1343) | Send Message
     
    Please short the stock so us cult members can slowly bleed you dry while you stubbornly hold your short position waiting for Musk to fail.
    11 Aug, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1690) | Send Message
     
    yes, that was my point.

     

    tesla continues to have a high short interest - I don't see the stock dropping until more shorts are squeezed out.
    12 Aug, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (5055) | Send Message
     
    Perma-bulls should once again have a look at Prof. Damodaran's detailed valuation where he built this optimistic scenario...

     

    "Tesla will grow to be as large as Audi, while delivering operating margins closer to Porsche's"

     

    Even so, he only arrived at $65-70 and then $100-120 (the latter was a valuation done in March 2014 after the huge convertible bond offering) for TSLA stock discounted to present value:

     

    http://bit.ly/14n0IwC

     

    http://bit.ly/1nVas8r

     

    Anyone who thinks doubling or tripling production is so easy and effortless in the car industry for years will be in for a dose of realism between 2015-2020, especially in a stock market or economic downturn (very likely in China and other big car countries in that period).

     

    PS: Similar valuation questions arise for SCTY sell-side price targets with even more shaky assumptions 10-20 years into the future. Some people who bid up SCTY because of "Elon Musk and his Midas touch" aren't even aware he is not involved in day-to-day operations at SCTY.
    11 Aug, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • naples
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    TFTF,

     

    I am okay with 65-70 to 100-120 for TSLA as long as it goes to 500 before then. How does that work for you?
    12 Aug, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • portatopia
    , contributor
    Comments (833) | Send Message
     
    naples,
    I don't think it will work very well. I am ok with TSLA goes to $0 before $500. Please put all your 401K and kids education money in TSLA.
    3 Dec, 11:18 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector